Wiki Model 3 Order Tracking Spreadsheet

[neroden]

BART per se is safe enough at late nights, however, walking to the stations is not.

 

[cardood]

Here are my final estimates for Q3 2018:

Production:
Model S&X: 26,306
Model 3: 52,582
Total: 78,888 units

Deliveries:
Model S: 12,854
Model X: 12,454
Model 3: 55,298
Total: 80,606 units

I will measure the accuracy in a few days when Tesla releases the actual numbers. I would expect 96% or higher accuracy for production and 90% or higher for delivery estimates.

By the way, there is a survey here where you can enter your estimates until the end of the quarter, Pacific Time. Currently, there are 26 entries.

Any thoughts on the steep drop in the "waiting for deliveries" graph in the spreadsheet? Do you think that fewer people are spending the time to enter in configuration data or could there possibly be less forward orders for the M3?

I see very few new configurations entered, especially after Labor Day.

 

[lensovet]

"normal" people won't be entering data into the spreadsheet anymore

basically the only people still entering data are either longtime tesla fans who didn't order LR or the very very few (like myself) who are just waiting to sit out the production and delivery hells.

 

[cardood]

"normal" people won't be entering data into the spreadsheet anymore

basically the only people still entering data are either longtime tesla fans who didn't order LR or the very very few (like myself) who are just waiting to sit out the production and delivery hells.

I disagree. If you look at the "Reservation" column, you will see that for the month of September approximately 62% of the new configurations are not from prior reservation holders (longtime Tesla fans), they are from people that never reserved. This is the highest monthly percentage it has ever been and indicates a different customer base that is still using this spreadsheet.

 

[lensovet]

62% out of 20 is not a large number…

 

[cardood]

62% out of 20 is not a large number…

A total of 80 configurations for September, not 20, even though I expect that number to slightly go up with people that didn't report right away.

This 80 configuration number illustrates my point regarding a drop in new configurations in the spreadsheet when compared to August at 351 count (58% customers without reservations) and July at 471 count (45% customers without reservations) for example.

Thanks for your input. Just wanted thoughts on why lack of new entries into spreadsheet.

 

[vladstamate]

Can someone do some magic on the spreadsheets and post some updates now that the quarter crazy delivery schedule is done? How many of day 1 and day 2 people still do not have a VIN or a delivery scheduled? What about 2017/2018 people? How does it look in general?

I could do it myself but I am a bit lost with the spreadsheets and I figured someone already is working on this.

 

[notAnExpert]

Here are my final estimates for Q3 2018:
[...]

Wow! You nailed it. I just compared with the official numbers. Model 3 numbers were just about a percent off for both manufacturing and deliveries. S&X production was a shade over 2% off. The bigger deviations were in S&X deliveries and even those were pretty good.
Great job. Thanks for doing this.

 

[Troy]

I posted my estimates here a few days ago. Tesla has now released the actual numbers here. Here is the accuracy of my estimates.

Production: Estimate, Actual, Accuracy
Model S&X: 26,306, 26,903, 97.78%
Model 3: 52,582, 53,239, 98.77%
Total: 78,888, 80,142, 98.44%

Deliveries: Estimate, Actual, Accuracy
Model S: 12,854, 14,470, 88.83%
Model X: 12,454, 13,190, 94.42%
Model 3: 55,298, 55,840, 99.03%
Total: 80,606, 83,500, 96.53%

We had a mini competition about this and this time 37 people participated compared to 11 people in the previous quarter. Many others estimated the numbers pretty accurately. See the results here.

 

[Troy]

Any thoughts on the steep drop in the "waiting for deliveries" graph in the spreadsheet?

The drop is a good thing. It means almost everybody who had a scheduled delivery by the end of the quarter received his/her car. Ideally, you want 'waiting for deliveries' to be flat and close to zero.

Can someone do some magic on the spreadsheets and post some updates now that the quarter crazy delivery schedule is done? How many of day 1 and day 2 people still do not have a VIN or a delivery scheduled? What about 2017/2018 people? How does it look in general?

The reservation time is not important. The configuration time is not important either. The only thing that matters is whether or not somebody has a reservation or is a former owner. In other words, it matters in which table you are when you look at the VIN Queue tab here but it doesn't matter where exactly you are within the table because Tesla is processing orders randomly or by some unknown criteria that we don't understand. The tables are sorted by configuration date but you can see that late configs have as many VINs as early configs.

However, there is a problem. Some of the early configs are overlooked by Tesla. These are AWD and P orders by non-reservation holders placed between 27-30 June 2018 without the $1,000 reservation. Tesla has forgotten this group or to be more precise, I think they have not realized that they exist because of some misconfiguration in a database query. I posted about this problem a few days ago here and more recently on Twitter here. This problem is related to two events:

• On 27 June 2018, the configurator went public
• On 30 June 2018, the reservation feature was removed

People could order between 27-30 June with or without a reservation. The group with a reservation has no problem. Also, the group after 30 June without a reservation has no problem. For more details, I recommend comparing all large tables on the VIN Queue tab here. This problem is not related to people entering incorrect data or not updating their entries. Tesla will eventually fix this.

 

[suwaneedad]

Here are my final estimates for Q3 2018:

Production:
Model S&X: 26,306
Model 3: 52,582
Total: 78,888 units

Deliveries:
Model S: 12,854
Model X: 12,454
Model 3: 55,298
Total: 80,606 units

I will measure the accuracy in a few days when Tesla releases the actual numbers. I would expect 96% or higher accuracy for production and 90% or higher for delivery estimates.

By the way, there is a survey here where you can enter your estimates until the end of the quarter, Pacific Time. Currently, there are 26 entries.

@Troy crushes it again!!
I'm not the least surprised.
Thanks again for all of your work, which has got to be getting harder not easier as new data gets more sparse, and the body of historical data gets increasingly unwieldy.
How long will you keep this up? Or will you take a break so that you're rested for the Model Y Experience?!?!

 

[suwaneedad]

I posted my estimates here a few days ago. Tesla has now released the actual numbers here. Here is the accuracy of my estimates.

Production: Estimate, Actual, Accuracy
Model S&X: 26,306, 26,903, 97.78%
Model 3: 52,582, 53,239, 98.77%
Total: 78,888, 80,142, 98.44%

Deliveries: Estimate, Actual, Accuracy
Model S: 12,854, 14,470, 88.83%
Model X: 12,454, 13,190, 94.42%
Model 3: 55,298, 55,840, 99.03%
Total: 80,606, 83,500, 96.53%

We had a mini competition about this and this time 37 people participated compared to 11 people in the previous quarter. Many others estimated the numbers pretty accurately. See the results here.

The one number that surprised me is the Model S deliveries. Who is consuming that many Model S vehicles when a refresh is known to be imminent? China? Europe? In the US, I assume the vast majority of Model S sales these days are 2-3yr leases, given the imminent refresh.

 

[LM-5]

The one number that surprised me is the Model S deliveries. Who is consuming that many Model S vehicles when a refresh is known to be imminent? China? Europe? In the US, I assume the vast majority of Model S sales these days are 2-3yr leases, given the imminent refresh.

People that wanted a Model 3, but didn’t want to wait.

Most people buy things at their time of want/need independently of release schedules or upcoming updates.

Model 3 will be the “gateway drug” for a lot of people that will end up upgrading or adding more Teslas to their garage. I expect sales of both to remain quite strong. Model Y may put a damper on X depending on the size and specs.

 

[suwaneedad]

People that wanted a Model 3, but didn’t want to wait.

Most people buy things at their time of want/need independently of release schedules or upcoming updates.

Model 3 will be the “gateway drug” for a lot of people that will end up upgrading or adding more Teslas to their garage. I expect sales of both to remain quite strong. Model Y may put a damper on X depending on the size and specs.

Hmm, this seems unlikely since wait times for a 3LR during Q3 were I suspect shorter than a wait time for a custom S. But I guess if you mean folks in the US wanting a 3D or a P3, and who are in a position to spend double to have an S much quicker, then I can see it. I just can't imagine throwing $100k at a vehicle that's going to be stale so soon, unless I was leasing it. Maybe the % of S US sales that are leases is climbing lately; that would make sense to me.

 

[LM-5]

Yes, I strongly suspect that in the US a large quantity, if not the majority, of Model S and X are leases.

Can you imagine what it’s going to be like when leasing is available on the $35k Model 3? Hold on to your hats, folks.

 

[suwaneedad]

Can you imagine what it’s going to be like when leasing is available on the $35k Model 3?

I don't see that ever happening. No need to offer leases until the initial demand for SR is satisfied, and by then the base price will be higher than the 2016 teased price of $35k imo. We may never see a lease approach for SR, since margins on it will always be thin on it relative to more expensive builds. Seems like Tesla will likely keep $35k SRs in limited production, for the financial health of the company, and then bring the prices up toward $40k while still keeping production limited.

 

[suwaneedad]

@Troy did you notice that in their volume press release yesterday, Tesla seemed to go to great pains to say that 'nearly all' Model 3s produced by the end of the quarter were AWDs. That feels to me like an admission by Tesla that the LR production was over-done while awaiting enough motors for 5k/wk AWD production, and that Tesla is now in a mode where it has sufficient motors for AWD at 5k/wk heading into Q4.

All that to say, your file still seems to project ~20% LR production in October. That feels high to me, relative to the press release "nearly all" AWD production commentary. Thoughts?

 

[KalaGulab]

@Troy I have a couple of questions I hope you can help with. By way of background, I did not have a reservation or prior Tesla ownership, and I ordered a LR on 9/26 (I am on the spreadsheet).

I see that LR production has slowed to a trickle, and I am pondering calling Tesla and upgrading my order to Performance (last night my wife said "hey why not go for a 'no regrets' purchase?" and who am I to argue with that logic?).

Location is Chicago area.

My preoccupation is with locking down the juicy $7.5k tax credit. As such my questions:

1. How confident are you in your "100% in 19 days" estimate on the Vin Queue tab for LR? Is LR production slowing so much that I have a good chance of getting punted into 2019?
2. If I switch to Performance, how likely is it that I'll get my order filled in 2018 vs 2019?

Thanks, your work on this is amazing.

 

[fishh]

@Troy I have a couple of questions I hope you can help with. By way of background, I did not have a reservation or prior Tesla ownership, and I ordered a LR on 9/26 (I am on the spreadsheet).

I see that LR production has slowed to a trickle, and I am pondering calling Tesla and upgrading my order to Performance (last night my wife said "hey why not go for a 'no regrets' purchase?" and who am I to argue with that logic?).

Location is Chicago area.

My preoccupation is with locking down the juicy $7.5k tax credit. As such my questions:

1. How confident are you in your "100% in 19 days" estimate on the Vin Queue tab for LR? Is LR production slowing so much that I have a good chance of getting punted into 2019?
2. If I switch to Performance, how likely is it that I'll get my order filled in 2018 vs 2019?

Thanks, your work on this is amazing.

All records indicate that Tesla has been prioritizing Performance Model 3 deliveries, especially when it nears the end of a quarter. I would visit the edit-design page and make the order change yourself, many other members have reported long lag times between a call/email to upgrade vs. making the upgrade online.

 

[Troy]

@suwaneedad, yesterday, I updated RWD/AWD percentages based on the latest date.

@KalaGulab, this is a difficult topic to comment on because I don't have a clear view of what's going on these days. Too few people are submitting data. All I can say is, I have done everything I can think of to improve the VIN Queue tab and if the wait times change over time, the formulas will automatically reflect that.