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So www.tesla3counter.com has been mentioned by a few people since I last logged on, so its a been hard to quote just one person but I'll try to address the main points. An update first: I'll admit, version 1.0 of our algorithm was a bit off - but it gave us something to build off of, and now we're pretty excited because we have a version 2.0 of the algorithm that we're finished designing and working on adding to the website (should be live sometime around May 11th 2016). This version incorporates some cool features, and should provide a better estimate. We'll be noting it on your account when you log in, but we've included a simple machine learning feature, we've also refined the way priority is given to current owners and employees, and we've updated the production rates given the new information from the most recent investor call.
@NickHoffmann we are definitely not a phishing site - we are a group of long time Tesla fans who came up with an algorithm to help us figure out when we would get our Model 3s, we thought it was pretty cool and have built it into a website. That being said, since the next version of our website includes a very simple version of machine learning - meaning our algorithm will adjust with each new reservation holder's participation. So if you did just spam us, it would be appreciated if you could send us an email letting us know to delete your account or edit your your email confirmation time info. Thanks.
@StapleGun - our running estimate, this is based on our algorithm and is our best estimate. The last estimate that we received was that we are approaching 400K on April 13th 2016. Another 50K in a month ish seems reasonable considering it is a global market. But again, this is our estimate, and one thing we haven't factored in yet is the cancellation rate (will hopefully be including this in a version 2.1 (or later) of the algorithm).
@Desert Driver, your information was deleted (we delete anyone that requests it). But you're always welcome back, and like I mentioned, the more reservation holders participate the more accurate an estimate we will be able to provide (with version 2.0).
@BlairC @iawlael @heysteveh , I know your estimates were a bit off, but they were the best we could do at the time with the info that was available. We've refined our algorithm for version 2.0 and based on my testing, I believe our estimate is much more accurate.
@UncleMoose , thanks for checking out the site. Check back soon, but maybe if you get a chance send us an email to edit your info to use your email confirmation time - this is what our algorithm is able to adjust for. Using the time you place the order could throw off your estimate since there were some instances that people would place orders and their credit card was not authorized immediately.
@N5329K , thanks for checking out the site. Our algorithm isn't perfect, but we're working to refine it as we go (it's an on going project for us).
Sorry for the length, hope that covered everyone, if not let me know - should have more time to be on TMC now that the majority of my part of the new version is done.
@NickHoffmann we are definitely not a phishing site - we are a group of long time Tesla fans who came up with an algorithm to help us figure out when we would get our Model 3s, we thought it was pretty cool and have built it into a website. That being said, since the next version of our website includes a very simple version of machine learning - meaning our algorithm will adjust with each new reservation holder's participation. So if you did just spam us, it would be appreciated if you could send us an email letting us know to delete your account or edit your your email confirmation time info. Thanks.
@StapleGun - our running estimate, this is based on our algorithm and is our best estimate. The last estimate that we received was that we are approaching 400K on April 13th 2016. Another 50K in a month ish seems reasonable considering it is a global market. But again, this is our estimate, and one thing we haven't factored in yet is the cancellation rate (will hopefully be including this in a version 2.1 (or later) of the algorithm).
@Desert Driver, your information was deleted (we delete anyone that requests it). But you're always welcome back, and like I mentioned, the more reservation holders participate the more accurate an estimate we will be able to provide (with version 2.0).
@BlairC @iawlael @heysteveh , I know your estimates were a bit off, but they were the best we could do at the time with the info that was available. We've refined our algorithm for version 2.0 and based on my testing, I believe our estimate is much more accurate.
@UncleMoose , thanks for checking out the site. Check back soon, but maybe if you get a chance send us an email to edit your info to use your email confirmation time - this is what our algorithm is able to adjust for. Using the time you place the order could throw off your estimate since there were some instances that people would place orders and their credit card was not authorized immediately.
@N5329K , thanks for checking out the site. Our algorithm isn't perfect, but we're working to refine it as we go (it's an on going project for us).
Sorry for the length, hope that covered everyone, if not let me know - should have more time to be on TMC now that the majority of my part of the new version is done.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
How about an option to type in the pertinent information and use the current time for reservation email for those of us that haven't reserved yet but would like to see the estimate for our country/state if we were to order at the time we fill out the form.
I'd put in a fake time to see that but then I'd be polluting your data set with an entry that I assume you'd think meant I reserved one already.
Woosie
Member
Well, I finally "bit" and signed up. All I can say is "Ouch" - March 2020 for a 4/2/2016 reservation date?
Didn't know there were so many Tesla owners who are buying Tesla Model 3's!! According to the reservation talley Excel chart I signed up somewhere between 250,000 and 273,000, but yet my tesla3counter number is 320,842!!!
I know this isn't an exact science but the algorithm doesn't even reflect an estimate. It'll be interesting to see what algorithm v2.0 will change ...
Didn't know there were so many Tesla owners who are buying Tesla Model 3's!! According to the reservation talley Excel chart I signed up somewhere between 250,000 and 273,000, but yet my tesla3counter number is 320,842!!!
I know this isn't an exact science but the algorithm doesn't even reflect an estimate. It'll be interesting to see what algorithm v2.0 will change ...
AZ Desert Driver
Rare combination
Thank you for the effort. Seems everyone who placed an order WANTS to know they are closer to the front than your model says . I feared you were scammers, but your prompt removal of my data comforts me. You have picked a thankless journey - one needed but full of prickly answers.I wish you well.
Thierry
Member
For me : may 2020 for a 4/9/2016 reservation date ...! I said "ouch ouch"... I hope a BIG mistake in the algorithm because I have to change my Leaf before.
Woosie
Member
I turned in my Leaf in February this year. Boy do I miss driving electric!! Even though I drive an older Prius now, I still have to get gasoline and change the oil, both of which I did yesterday.
On the positive side, a 2020 date will result in a less buggy car with potential small upgrades, like battery size, improved Autopilot, etc.
Also, I recognize that the teslamodel3counter algorithm doesn't reflect the latest production expectation from Tesla.
Hi Bquinn,(and TMC! First post!)
Just a quick question about the reservation date on www.tesla3counter.com. I reserved my Model 3 on 1st April at 6.30pm UTC, got the confirmation email on the 2nd at 0753(UTC), as per your site this seems to imply my 'reservation date is the 2nd April, but on 'My Tesla' , the reservation date is given as 1st April. Could this affect my estimate?
I realise being in a country where we drive on the left will mean i'm way down the list anyway!
Does anyone have any info if the deliveries to Europe and RHD markets will be moved up due to the new schedule?
Cheers,
This is in response to BQuinn's post #182. I somehow screwed up the quoting:
I could send you when I got the confirmation email, but I doubt that is useful information - I am one of those that reserved on 3/31 and didn't get the confirmation email until about 4 days later. However, I know that my reservation is in the system as of Mar 31, as my myTesla page states: "Your Model 3 was reserved on 3/31/2016. You'll be invited to configure based on the date of your reservation." and we know that the build order will be based on the configure date (along with time zone, options, etc.).
I don't think anyone is going to take your algorithm seriously if it is based on the email confirmation date. That is probably the least useful piece of information. If I was coming up with the algorithm, it would group within the following criteria:
1) In North America
1a) In California
1b) Is the car for a Tesla or Space-X employer or current Tesla owner (and only one model 3 per Tesla owned) and heavily optioned
1c) Is the car for a Tesla or Space-X employer or current Tesla owner (and only one model 3 per Tesla owned) and closer to base
1d) heavily optioned
1e) closer to base
2a) In Western Time zone
2b) Is the car for a Tesla or Space-X employer or current Tesla owner (and only one model 3 per Tesla owned) and heavily optioned
2c) Is the car for a Tesla or Space-X employer or current Tesla owner (and only one model 3 per Tesla owned) and closer to base
3d) heavily optioned
3e) closer to base
4) same as above for Mountain Time Zone
5) same as above for Central Time Zone
6) same as above for Eastern Time Zone
7) same as above for Maritime Time Zone
Now within 1 to 7, it should be based on when you made the reservation (not the email confirmation or when the charge hit your account). I believe (strongly hope) that the early reservations would be moved up so that I would not have to wait until all of groups 1 through 6d are send out before they get to mine (I'm most likely to be in group 6e). That was my reason for standing in line. If I had to guess, I believe I was within the first 10000 to reserve. We will see what that is worth.
8) Outside of North America, left hand drive (favoring France and Germany if the Alsance ex-nuclear factory is used)
9) Outside of North America, right hand drive
Within 8 and 9, based on when you made the reservation.
I could send you when I got the confirmation email, but I doubt that is useful information - I am one of those that reserved on 3/31 and didn't get the confirmation email until about 4 days later. However, I know that my reservation is in the system as of Mar 31, as my myTesla page states: "Your Model 3 was reserved on 3/31/2016. You'll be invited to configure based on the date of your reservation." and we know that the build order will be based on the configure date (along with time zone, options, etc.).
I don't think anyone is going to take your algorithm seriously if it is based on the email confirmation date. That is probably the least useful piece of information. If I was coming up with the algorithm, it would group within the following criteria:
1) In North America
1a) In California
1b) Is the car for a Tesla or Space-X employer or current Tesla owner (and only one model 3 per Tesla owned) and heavily optioned
1c) Is the car for a Tesla or Space-X employer or current Tesla owner (and only one model 3 per Tesla owned) and closer to base
1d) heavily optioned
1e) closer to base
2a) In Western Time zone
2b) Is the car for a Tesla or Space-X employer or current Tesla owner (and only one model 3 per Tesla owned) and heavily optioned
2c) Is the car for a Tesla or Space-X employer or current Tesla owner (and only one model 3 per Tesla owned) and closer to base
3d) heavily optioned
3e) closer to base
4) same as above for Mountain Time Zone
5) same as above for Central Time Zone
6) same as above for Eastern Time Zone
7) same as above for Maritime Time Zone
Now within 1 to 7, it should be based on when you made the reservation (not the email confirmation or when the charge hit your account). I believe (strongly hope) that the early reservations would be moved up so that I would not have to wait until all of groups 1 through 6d are send out before they get to mine (I'm most likely to be in group 6e). That was my reason for standing in line. If I had to guess, I believe I was within the first 10000 to reserve. We will see what that is worth.
8) Outside of North America, left hand drive (favoring France and Germany if the Alsance ex-nuclear factory is used)
9) Outside of North America, right hand drive
Within 8 and 9, based on when you made the reservation.
BQuinn - so will your algorithm work in my case? I was on holiday in France and queued to place my M3 order. Requested UK right hand drive model with UK delivery. What timezone do i choose? Destination of car or country of reservation? I also am now wondering if (having ordered in a left hand drive country) i would be bumped up in the queue?
Thierry
Member
Maybe before 2020 after this tweet of Evercharge :
Elon Musk: #Tesla #Model3 Production Target Is Up To 200,000 In Second Half Of 2017Elon Musk: Tesla Model 3 Production Target Is Up To 200,000 In Second Half Of 2017
Impossible n'est pas français and.... with Musk at the helm anything is possible.
Elon Musk: #Tesla #Model3 Production Target Is Up To 200,000 In Second Half Of 2017Elon Musk: Tesla Model 3 Production Target Is Up To 200,000 In Second Half Of 2017
Impossible n'est pas français and.... with Musk at the helm anything is possible.
Maybe before 2020 after this tweet of Evercharge :
Elon Musk: #Tesla #Model3 Production Target Is Up To 200,000 In Second Half Of 2017Elon Musk: Tesla Model 3 Production Target Is Up To 200,000 In Second Half Of 2017
Impossible n'est pas français and.... with Musk at the helm anything is possible.
I was questioning, the more then half of the orders where from China and Europe.
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Hi Guys, pretty excited to say the V2.0 is live and everyone should be quite a bit happier with their estimates. We've updated the production schedule according to Elon's ambitious goals of 2017. We also include a learning component, so your V2.0 estimate will update every 24hrs. You can get your estimate here: www.tesla3counter.com. To address a few questions/comments:
@dhanson865 Thanks for not imputing random info. Take a look at the counter on the main page - that would be your estimated position if you placed a reservation in real time (assuming you are not currently a Tesla owner or employee). The estimated shipping date is in the bottom right hand corner. Your idea is a pretty good one, right now we are focusing on building a solid estimate for people who have placed a reservation already. But we are exploring many features to add to future updates - so ideas are always welcome.
@Woosie Estimates in V1.0 were definitely high. We had to work with what we had at the time, but check out V2.0 - you should be a bit happier?
@Desert Driver Thanks, and hah, I wouldn't exactly say 'Thankless' - it's been very cool to build this out and have the reaction/participation from the community we've had. We're enjoying it and are excited to continue building.
@Thierry There were some BIG improvement made that are now live on your account.
@Ppytal In V1.0 it might have worked out that way. In V2.0 we are much more able to account for the email confirmation time delay. Check back and you should see a significant difference between V1.0 vs. 2.0 in your estimates.
@UncleMoose V2.0 is able to adjust for the email confirmation delay MUCH better then V1.0 was able to. We have plans to incorporate many of the factors you mentioned (regions, optionality, right vs. left hand drive, etc.). Right now we're focusing on building an algorithm that is "generally" accurate, there are definitely factors that we know should be considered - we are working to include these in future version of the algorithm. STAY TUNNED! We made the assumption that the email confirmation time is the best piece of information that many reservation holders have (ideally we would like to be working with credit card authorization date and time). Since we are trying to provide a statistically accurate estimate, we are confident that our algorithm is now able to adjust for the time delay in email confirmations much more accurately.
@UKM3 Yes, our algorithm can handle any scenario of timezone combinations. Just put in your email confirmation date and time as it currently reads on your email client (email clients will automatically adjust to your current timezone). From there we are able to standardize it and then put it through our algorithm.
Hope this answers everyone's questions. Thanks for the support and participation!
@dhanson865 Thanks for not imputing random info. Take a look at the counter on the main page - that would be your estimated position if you placed a reservation in real time (assuming you are not currently a Tesla owner or employee). The estimated shipping date is in the bottom right hand corner. Your idea is a pretty good one, right now we are focusing on building a solid estimate for people who have placed a reservation already. But we are exploring many features to add to future updates - so ideas are always welcome
.@Woosie Estimates in V1.0 were definitely high. We had to work with what we had at the time, but check out V2.0 - you should be a bit happier?
@Desert Driver Thanks, and hah, I wouldn't exactly say 'Thankless' - it's been very cool to build this out and have the reaction/participation from the community we've had. We're enjoying it and are excited to continue building.
@Thierry There were some BIG improvement made that are now live on your account.
@Ppytal In V1.0 it might have worked out that way. In V2.0 we are much more able to account for the email confirmation time delay. Check back and you should see a significant difference between V1.0 vs. 2.0 in your estimates.
@UncleMoose V2.0 is able to adjust for the email confirmation delay MUCH better then V1.0 was able to. We have plans to incorporate many of the factors you mentioned (regions, optionality, right vs. left hand drive, etc.). Right now we're focusing on building an algorithm that is "generally" accurate, there are definitely factors that we know should be considered - we are working to include these in future version of the algorithm. STAY TUNNED! We made the assumption that the email confirmation time is the best piece of information that many reservation holders have (ideally we would like to be working with credit card authorization date and time). Since we are trying to provide a statistically accurate estimate, we are confident that our algorithm is now able to adjust for the time delay in email confirmations much more accurately.
@UKM3 Yes, our algorithm can handle any scenario of timezone combinations. Just put in your email confirmation date and time as it currently reads on your email client (email clients will automatically adjust to your current timezone). From there we are able to standardize it and then put it through our algorithm.
Hope this answers everyone's questions. Thanks for the support and participation!
garsh
Re Member
I gave it a shot, then realized I put in the wrong time - PM instead of AM.
Is there a way to edit the information? I can't find a way to do so.
Is there a way to edit the information? I can't find a way to do so.
mtndrew1
Active Member
Well 2.0 is better, but it still shows me as 182,483 even though I reserved in line about ten hours prior to Elon saying they had just hit 115,000. So it's extremely likely I'm in the first 115,000 reservations somewhere. Given that I placed my order at about 10 am PST in California I suspect I'm within the first 50,000-80,000 reservations.
Maybe a user choice as to whether or not the deposit was made prior to or after the car's official reveal on stage would allow a definitive 115,000 break point and further refine results.
Maybe a user choice as to whether or not the deposit was made prior to or after the car's official reveal on stage would allow a definitive 115,000 break point and further refine results.
I agree that 2.0 is still off, or at least I hope it is. I reserved at approx. 10:30 am on 3/31 but didn't get my email confirmation until a week later. According to 2.0, I'm 409,230th in line, and should get my car in December, 2018. That isn't right, as I had to be in the first 115,000 also.
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