Model 3 standard range postponed until Early 2019

[AviP]

I'm a day 1 in-store reservation holder. My reservation has changed to Late 2018 for the SR and Late 2018 for the AWD. Bummer! I know that anything more than 6 months out is just BS timing. So a realistic number is arguably mid-2019. That rules out the $7500 tax credit for sure.

So, I'm on the fence but leaning towards a cancellation. I was counting on replacing my Outback, valued at $15K in 2017, with the Model 3. That was going to bring the price of the Model 3 down to $35,000 - $15000 - $7500 = $12500 + options. Instead its going to be $35000 - $10000 - $0 = $25000 + options. DOUBLE!

It's starting to look less appealing and while I will keep the refundable reservation, I don't think I'll buy at this price point.

 

[kwest2]

The tax credit doesn't go away immediately. It drops in half. So most likely, most initial SR purchases will get $3,750 tax credit instead of $7,500. Makes the upgrade price to LR $5,250 instead of $9,000 basically.

I'm also bummed because I was hoping for $36+$5(PUP)+$1(color)-$7.5(fed)-$2.5(state)=$32. Now it's looking like the smarter choice will be net $41 for LR instead of $35.75 for SR.

 

[AviP]

Tesla website, can't login any more. Currently displays an error message.
Is the website overwhelmed with the number of cancellation requests or are they making some other change to the website?
Is it common for the website to disallow login? I've never seen this happen in the last 2 years.

I have a feeling that they have mastered the art of disappointment. So they see a high cancel volume days after their announcements and just disable their login page till the emotional trauma has passed. Psychos!

 

[AviP]

The tax credit doesn't go away immediately. It drops in half. So most likely, most initial SR purchases will get $3,750 tax credit instead of $7,500. Makes the upgrade price to LR $5,250 instead of $9,000 basically.

I'm also bummed because I was hoping for $36+$5(PUP)+$1(color)-$7.5(fed)-$2.5(state)=$32. Now it's looking like the smarter choice will be net $41 for LR instead of $35.75 for SR.

I was familiar with that. But I think that by the end of Q2, we will have satisfied the 200,000 cars sold rule and then another 2 quarters to bring it down to 0 (I think). So by 2019, it's zilch from the Feds.

 

[kmonsen]

Elon Musk is just a serial liar. I'm not buying a model 3, I am requesting a refund and filing complaints against Tesla. He had no way to deliver the car at $35,000 when he presented it. NO WAY.
Lutz is correct.
*** Tesla, I will never buy another one of their cars.

LOL, good luck. I have been waiting 2 months to get the reservation money back now. They keep stalling "we just sent another check, why don't you just wait for next Friday" etc. Escalated to supervisor and he promised to send it with tracking info next time, never happened of course.

 

[AviP]

I should correct my post above. The guestimate is that 200000 Teslas will be sold by Q2 2018. So the $7500 credit will apply to the end of Q3. The Q4 2018 and Q1 2019 will be at #3750. Q2 2019 and Q3 2019 at $1875. From Q4 2019, there will be no credit.

 

[Kenriko]

People won't like this but it's the truth.

It does not make sense for Tesla to let a single 35k Model 3 out the door when the $7500 tax credit is still around and there is still demand for the LR + PUP version.

Many of the people stretching to get into the 35k Model 3 won't even be able to take advantage of the $7500 credit because their income is not high enough to have owed $7500 to the government. And if Tesla were to deliver cars to those people they would be wasting the credit.

Tesla can't sell the 35k version now and stay in business, they just don't have the capital to continue taking billion dollar losses.

Would you rather have a 35k car and have Tesla go bankrupt or wait another year and have the car and a company around to back it?

 

[dark]

I had a Model S 2014 missed the AP hardware by days. Then rushed to trade it in for a Model X when they make a big deal with the free supercharging for life by the end of 2016. Guess what, you can still get free supercharging today.

I placed my 1000 deposit for the model 3 on the 1st day, and waiting for the SR patiently.

Guess what, congratulations Tesla, your smart move has caused you to lose your loyal family customer. We will get our model 3 deposit back, and move on to something else.

 

[gregincal]

^This^. I said this a year ago, and was excoriated for it. So, I’ll say it again. A $35K M3 will never be delivered. EM has known this for a long time.

Need to go back and reread all those posts about “Elon obviously doing the right thing”. What a joke.

Yeah, and you’re still wrong.

 

[Daniellane]

Interesting, I'm 1st day online reservation in San Francisco Bay Area. My 1st production estimate is now Apr-Jun, 1 month behind yours, but my SR estimate is late 2018, ahead of yours. I wonder how that happened.
View attachment 278828

Not sure why.
Are you a current owner?
I am a current Model S owner. Cancelled my Model 3 reservation when I bought the Model S in June of last year. I put a new reservation on a Model 3 for my wife on 7/29 after experiencing how amazing the car was.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I was familiar with that. But I think that by the end of Q2, we will have satisfied the 200,000 cars sold rule and then another 2 quarters to bring it down to 0 (I think). So by 2019, it's zilch from the Feds.

Wrong. The rule's been in place since 2009. Most people here should know it by now. Anyone who's uncertain enough to say "I think" should look it up before saying anything.

Google: plug-in in tax credit rule
First link: Plug In Electric Vehicle Credit IRC 30 and IRC 30D | Internal Revenue Service
See the paragraph about the phase out.

 

[suwaneedad]

Yeah, this can really screw us up. I wish there was a cut off date for jumping the line.

Indeed, I could go buy a used S today privately for $50k, jump the line to get my 3LR, and then sell the S for damn near $50k without even having had to title it nor fund the sales tax on it (in my state). It might increase the effective price of my 3LR by a few thousand bucks, all of which would be covered by the 100% assurance of obtaining the US tax credit before it erodes.

 

[MoMini]

First day online non-owner here. I've watched my Estimate for the SR M3 I put down my deposit for move from Jan-Mar to Early 2018 to Late 2018. Being in Los Angeles I was counting on the Fed 7,500 PLUS the CA 2,500. I don't need a LR version, and certainly not for an additional 14 thousand! I still want the car, so I won't cancel until I see the Tax Incentives disappear. At that point I'll request my money back. At this point nothing is certain (other than this most recent delay), and it's no biggie to keep the deposit where it is for now.

 

[Lukas99]

Yeah, this can really screw us up. I wish there was a cut off date for jumping the line.

Agree! I think it is completely unfair for anybody to jump now ahead of the existing reservation holders... Why should a US reservation made now get priority over mine (Czech Republic) made two years ago? Then the whole point of reserving does not make sense! If I cancelled now, and ordered when demand is met in USA or with existing owners, I am afdraid there will only be a few weeks difference. Honor the freaking reservation list, we gave you interest free loan and been waiting/supporting for two years!

 

[AviP]

I just reached out to my Jaguar dealer for an I-PACE. It's still in the concept but with mid-2018 deliverable dates. Same 220-mile range, 4-second acceleration. No pricing! Obviously, that is key. All the self-driving tech on the Tesla is worthless to me. The roads in my neck of the woods have electric poles and trees 6" from the road, inconsistent double yellow, confusing traffic lights. Given that Tesla's self driving is ranked among the lowest among all the manufacturers from a Level 1-5 perspective, it's not desirable.

 

[AviP]

Also some simple math: 500,000 pre-orders at peak production capacity of 5,000 vehicles per week = 100 weeks (2 years) of production. If Tesla does manage peak production by Q2 2018, then the last pre-order cannot be fulfilled earlier than Q2 2020. Am I wrong?

 

[azred]

Also some simple math: 500,000 pre-orders at peak production capacity of 5,000 vehicles per week = 100 weeks (2 years) of production. If Tesla does manage peak production by Q2 2018, then the last pre-order cannot be fulfilled earlier than Q2 2020. Am I wrong?

I don’t know if you are wrong but are you Short TSLA? If not, maybe you should be. Good luck on the Jag.

 

[Sonny Daze]

Also some simple math: 500,000 pre-orders at peak production capacity of 5,000 vehicles per week = 100 weeks (2 years) of production. If Tesla does manage peak production by Q2 2018, then the last pre-order cannot be fulfilled earlier than Q2 2020. Am I wrong?

The 5,000 per week is just the goal for 30 June 2018. Tesla's aspirational peak is 10,000 per week.

 

[TexasEV]

I just reached out to my Jaguar dealer for an I-PACE. It's still in the concept but with mid-2018 deliverable dates.

Yeah, good luck getting one in mid-2018. Jaguar says second half of 2018, which could be December and they would still meet the target. And if you get one, good luck trying to take it on a road trip without Tesla superchargers.

 

[amb3rgris]

I just reached out to my Jaguar dealer for an I-PACE.... No pricing!...

I believe they announced European pricing, which might give some idea for US prices...

Quick Google found this Jalopnik article:
https://jalopnik.com/jaguars-all-electric-i-pace-could-start-at-76-000-1821501087

From that article:
Back out the 21% VAT and convert to dollars, it looks like:

• I-PACE S: $76,400 - 18" wheels, LED headlights, Meridian audio system
  
• I-PACE SE: $83,864 - 20" wheels, adaptive cruise control, leather, power tailgate
  
• I-PACE HSE: $90,387 - 18 way power adjustable seats, surround audio, other stuff
  
• I-PACE First Edition: $98,773 - adds heads up display, air suspension, and sunroof