Model 3 standard range postponed until Early 2019

[Moderatefan]

Tesla is informing me that they do not want my business.

They inform us that they overpromised and cannot ramp up quickly enough to get us all covered within a short timeframe. There's likely 250k U.S. reservations and they may only produce 150k in a year. So, a lot of people are up for a major disappointment and there's not much they can do.

 

[Moderatefan]

more owners will be placing new deposits

Yeah, this can really screw us up. I wish there was a cut off date for jumping the line.

 

[SteveG3]

Ugh that's disappointing. 220 of range is perfectly fine. Would rather use that 9 Grand for EAP and AWD.

With the way things have changed, I can understand anyone having an, "I'll believe it when I see it" approach, but, this suggests that you still can do that plan,

Standard range with AWD appears to be available mid-2018...

 

[juanmedina]

my estimate date says late 2018 for the standard battery and late 2018 for AWD

 

[xborg]

I reckon, when they introduce the short range version, It will have a bit less range than the current long range..
And a new longer range version will be released.
Those who ordered the old long range will be screwed.

Just look at the past. It always happens on Teslaland. Recently, they said they would discontinue 60D, they did, but they made 75D almost same price as 60D, screwing who already owned 75D for more than $7500 more.

 

[ulrichw]

I reckon, when they introduce the short range version, It will have a bit less range than the current long range..
And a new longer range version will be released.
Those who ordered the old long range will be screwed.

Just look at the past. It always happens on Teslaland. Recently, they said they would discontinue 60D, they did, but they made 75D almost same price as 60D, screwing who already owned 75D for more than $7500 more.

IMO, this has much less to do with "Teslaland" than it has to do with buying on the "bleeding edge" of technology.

Electric car tech is still advancing quickly enough that cars at the same price point 3 years from now will be significantly better than the current ones.

If you're worried about owning a car that is eclipsed by newer models, electric is not for you (yet). Wait another 10-ish years (my WAG) until the development curve slows down.

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

Elon originally quoted a $49,900 price for the Model S back on 3/26/2009. 5 minute mark

That didn't meaningfully happen.

Now we're 9 years later and his "mass market", "affordable" car is now minimum $49,000 but more likely $55-60,000.

The trend says they'll never make an affordable car. It is not converging.

How is going from a 2013 40kWh Model S with EPA rated range of 139 miles for $63k (real dollars) to a 2018 80kWh Model 3 with EPA rated range of 310+ miles for $49k not meaningful?

 

[Daniellane]

Just got this email
Was Dec 17 - Feb 18
Now March - May

Screenshot from Estimator Page

 

[commasign]

When did Tesla move their 5k goal? When did they move my SR estimate from Early 2018 to Late 2018?

Tesla announced the new 5k/week goal when they announced the Q4 '17 delivery numbers in early January. The Model 3 SR delivery estimate just changed to "Mid 2018" for Day 1 reservation holders a few hours ago.

 

[DriveMe]

Just got my email. Bummer!!!

 

[dm33]

What's the big fuss? We've known for weeks that the ramp (5000 cars/wk target) has been pushed back 6 months from late Q4 2017 to late Q2 2018. So of course, the standard battery option would also get pushed back 6 months from "Early 2018" to "Mid 2018". This isn't Tesla being deceptive. It's just math (+6 months).

The fuss is that is it not just a delay. A quarter or two delay would have been fine.
It is a clear prioritization of any higher priced version over the base Model 3.
From their actions it looks like the base car will never happen. 2019 is the most recently stated estimate. It will likely continue to slip if it ever occurs. The car will cost $7500 more.

Its a betrayal of the promise of the affordable car that was always in Tesla's business plan. The Model 3 was announced as an affordable $35,000 car. Elon asked people to give $1000 to reserve such a car.

Such a car does not and apparently will not exist anytime soon. It was a false statement.

 

[dm33]

my estimate date says late 2018 for the standard battery and late 2018 for AWD

Do you have a day 1 reservation? The insideev story said day 2 reservation holders were reporting early 2019,.

 

[apacheguy]

When will the LR non-PUP be available?

 

[juanmedina]

Do you have a day 1 reservation? The insideev story said day 2 reservation holders were reporting early 2019,.

First day reservation

 

[Canuck]

It is a clear prioritization of any higher priced version over the base Model 3.

Of course it is. You seem surprised by that? If so, welcome to the real world.

Its a betrayal of the promise of the affordable car that was always in Tesla's business plan.

No. It's life or death for Tesla so please don't take it personally. In case you haven't noticed, Tesla is bleeding cash -- and is far from out of the woods. The shorts are always knocking at the door and desperation makes you grab easy cash first, and at least until stable.

The Model 3 was announced as an affordable $35,000 car. Elon asked people to give $1000 to reserve such a car.

Yes, right. I'm glad he did too. Without S/X buyers, and the cash from reservation holders, the 3 wouldn't be in production right now. Your point?

Such a car does not and apparently will not exist anytime soon. It was a false statement.

Seriously? It's coming. Hold your horses (or ICE for that matter).

 

[Wshowell]

This is a brilliant move for shareholder value. So many people like myself have held off configuring thinking the SR is just a month or two away. Now that we know it’s more than a year away and the fact that the tax incentives won’t be available in a year, we would be foolish to NOT configure ASAP. I’m still holding out for white interior but if the next email I get from them is “white is a year away...” I’ll configure. This short squeeze of those of us waiting will load up their production queue with the highest profit margin cars currently available and then when the dual motor cars are available they will maintain or even grow the highest margins. Although this move might anger a lot of people, it is the smartest move for shareholder value and, in the end, if the shares do not maintain the high valuations, Tesla suffers financially, product quality suffers, sales suffer etc etc and you have a DeLorean situation. This is best for the company overall which is ultimately best for Elon’s vision. Try not to take it personally. On a positive note, 2012 - 2013 Model S’s I believe will be available in the mid $30K range by year end. These will be well loved, well maintained and within the budgets of many Model 3 buyers. They’ll also be out of warranty which would be discouraging but better than not driving the safest car in the world.

 

[mjp462]

Tesla announced the new 5k/week goal when they announced the Q4 '17 delivery numbers in early January. The Model 3 SR delivery estimate just changed to "Mid 2018" for Day 1 reservation holders a few hours ago.

I'm a day 1 reservation holder and my SR date was changed to Late 2018 from Early 2018. If they changed their production goals in Jan, why wait until now to change their customer estimates? Was this decision made today? Doubt it. Did they ever plan to sell a $35k car, doesn't seem so. Have they figured out how to make a lot of "simple" Model 3's, no. Will they figure it out, probably.

 

[Dynastar]

Your date also is effected by where you live. I have a day 1 owner reservation and it's saying late 2018 for both standard and AWD. The effective price difference between first production and the other options just got $3,250 smaller.

 

[jgs]

I reckon, when they introduce the short range version, It will have a bit less range than the current long range..
And a new longer range version will be released.
Those who ordered the old long range will be screwed.

Just look at the past. It always happens on Teslaland. Recently, they said they would discontinue 60D, they did, but they made 75D almost same price as 60D, screwing who already owned 75D for more than $7500 more.

I will never understand the mindset that says if someone else gets something better, or cheaper, later, I am somehow harmed by their good fortune. Surely, when I bought the product, I judged it worth the price, or I wouldn't have bought. About the closest I can think of to support this PoV is "but the depreciation" but how is it news that older models depreciate over time? T'were ever thus.

Now, if they bricked my car, or reduced the range OTA or something, that would be screwing me. But that's not what we're talking about.

 

[commasign]

If they changed their production goals in Jan, why wait until now to change their customer estimates?

Everyone seems to forget Tesla is a publicly traded company. It would be a violation of SEC rules for them to "leak" a significant delay in Model 3 production to just the reservation holders. As a shareholder myself, I think it was reasonable for them to wait until after today's earnings call (where they were able to provide a lot of detail and context about the delays and production plans) to officially update the customer estimates.