Model 3 standard range postponed until Early 2019

[ABCTG]

So, yes I'm frustrated at being pushed back, but not really for my own sake, more for Tesla.

Is the base model 3 financially viable for Tesla? I get the feeling there was a moment when they looked at the numbers, then did a double take and thought; "we really like selling the S and the X; the base 3? Not so much."


Was it a mistake for them to not fully test the 3 production line?

Traditional car manufacturing can take up to 5 years to design and build a new model.



Tesla is pushing the envelope.

Their mission is to fully electrify the worldwide vehicle fleet.

They are still forcing the hand of every traditional auto maker.

I'm happy to see a Tesla or any EV on the road.

I wonder how Chevy feels about selling the Bolt for less than $35K, when it actually costs them more to manufacture it,

maybe they will take them all back when the leases expire and truck them out to the desert?

 

[ABCTG]

Here's how to get it cheaper;

 

[R-123]

maybe they will take them all back when the leases expire and truck them out to the desert?

Swap used up suspension parts, repaint, stamp a new VIN and sell as refurbished for 30k.

 

[Goatdan]

Interesting how many knives are out for Tesla right now.

I'll more or less say what I said earlier...

A SR version is coming. It would have been the second option if the automated battery lines worked properly. They didn't. They have thrown all their people at creating and implementing a new LR battery line that is expected to go live in March.

Until that line is installed, it makes no sense to start the next line in case there are issues. Once it is live, the SR line will be next as quickly as they can. Until then, with the rest of the factory moving slower, they can implement AWD with the spare time.

To me, this has nothing to do with them not wanting to sell the short range version and everything to do with them being strategic about what they can do when. In a world where the battery production wasn't the issue, I expect they would be on track for it right now.

 

[azred]

People won't like this but it's the truth.

It does not make sense for Tesla to let a single 35k Model 3 out the door when the $7500 tax credit is still around and there is still demand for the LR + PUP version.

Many of the people stretching to get into the 35k Model 3 won't even be able to take advantage of the $7500 credit because their income is not high enough to have owed $7500 to the government. And if Tesla were to deliver cars to those people they would be wasting the credit.

Tesla can't sell the 35k version now and stay in business, they just don't have the capital to continue taking billion dollar losses.

Would you rather have a 35k car and have Tesla go bankrupt or wait another year and have the car and a company around to back it?

I agree with the financial argument. It’s hard to argue otherwise. Also, if battery assembly is the big problem, starting a second assembly line for SR batteries would probably be extremely difficult. It would seem to be much easier and more sensible to provide dual motors, metal roofs and base interiors — and perhaps all of those things will be done soon.

But building at least some $35,000 cars is important from a PR perspective. Tesla doesn’t buy ads but is great at creating positive publicity without ads (see Roadster to the Asteroid Belt). So far the mainstream media doesn’t seem to be beating up Tesla too badly for only building $50k+ Model 3s, but eventually they will. There are plenty of customers in the queue but eventually new customers will be needed and it won’t be good for Tesla if the public perception regards the Model 3 as just another niche car for the wealthy. If — and that’s a big if —Tesla gets production ironed out and continues to lower battery costs, I believe it won’t be too many years before Model 3 won’t just be a threat to BMW and Mercedes but also Honda and Toyota. Fingers crossed.

 

[206er]

Enough. I cancelled this morning, I'm out.

 

[dsvick]

I just reached out to my Jaguar dealer for an I-PACE. It's still in the concept but with mid-2018 deliverable dates. Same 220-mile range, 4-second acceleration. No pricing! Obviously, that is key.

Pricing estimates I've seen are all above $50,000, closer to $60K - $70K

Also some simple math: 500,000 pre-orders at peak production capacity of 5,000 vehicles per week = 100 weeks (2 years) of production. If Tesla does manage peak production by Q2 2018, then the last pre-order cannot be fulfilled earlier than Q2 2020. Am I wrong?

Yes, you're wrong. 5,000 per week is the goal by mid 2018, max production goal is 10K per week. And, even if you're right, all your doing highlighting the fact that Tesla can sell every car they produce for the foreseeable future.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Enough. I cancelled this morning, I'm out.

To anyone think of canceling, here is my 2 cents:

1) If you can't afford to let the $1K deposit sit, cancel immediately, you shouldn't be buying a $35K+ car

2) If you're canceling because you're worried that the EV credit will disappear when the SR is available, and if you don't get the $7500 rebate then you can't afford the $35K car, then I think you should cancel, same reason as 1 above. In the end it's still just a car, there is no reason to risk one's financial stability for it.

3) If your old car may be breaking down, and you might need to buy a car before M3 is available to you, hold on to your deposit, cancel it when your old car does breakdown and you buy/lease another car. Your old car may last another year, very possibly, and M3 could be available by then. What's the harm in holding on the reservation?

4) If you want to go to a competing EV because you can't wait to drive an EV, same as 3 above, hold on to the reservation until you actually get your hands on the competing EV. Think about this, has anyone proven they can make much more than 20K/yr 200 mile range EV? If just 5% of the Tesla M3 reservation holders go this route, the supply of that alternative EV will also be overwhelmed, and you may end up having to wait for the other EV also. If you hold on to the M3 reservation, you always have the chance that your name would be called before the other EV is available. And you can always cancel once you actually secured the other EV.

5) If you want to cancel to spite Tesla, by all means you should. I think you don't want to be driving a car that reminds you so much animosity anyway. Also I think it's a fair message to send, and a good lesson for Tesla to learn, although Tesla may or may not feel the pain since their reservation list is still growing.

 

[urilevi8]

The idea that cancelling your reservation will change their decision making is silly. If they can't sell the LR they will make SR. But Tesla is a business and if they can find buyers for 600k model 3 LR vehicles a year (factory capacity), then they should not make the SR version until a new factory is built. Sure this sucks for many long faithful supporters, but the plan is to build as many EVs as possible, as soon as feasible to achieve the stated goal of sustainable transport.
You can't argue the fact that higher margin vehicles will fund new factories and models faster - and that's the goal.

Good and logical explanation!

 

[RedOctober]

So, yes I'm frustrated at being pushed back, but not really for my own sake, more for Tesla.

Is the base model 3 financially viable for Tesla? I get the feeling there was a moment when they looked at the numbers, then did a double take and thought; "we really like selling the S and the X; the base 3? Not so much."


Was it a mistake for them to not fully test the 3 production line?

Traditional car manufacturing can take up to 5 years to design and build a new model.



Tesla is pushing the envelope.

Their mission is to fully electrify the worldwide vehicle fleet.

They are still forcing the hand of every traditional auto maker.

I'm happy to see a Tesla or any EV on the road.

I wonder how Chevy feels about selling the Bolt for less than $35K, when it actually costs them more to manufacture it,

maybe they will take them all back when the leases expire and truck them out to the desert?

Just looked at the Bolt pricing the other day while in Florida and they wanted $43,000.00 for one which really surprised me because is sure as hell not a sexy looking car.

 

[RedOctober]

To anyone think of canceling, here is my 2 cents:

1) If you can't afford to let the $1K deposit sit, cancel immediately, you shouldn't be buying a $35K+ car

2) If you're canceling because you're worried that the EV credit will disappear when the SR is available, and if you don't get the $7500 rebate then you can't afford the $35K car, then I think you should cancel, same reason as 1 above. In the end it's still just a car, there is no reason to risk one's financial stability for it.

3) If your old car may be breaking down, and you might need to buy a car before M3 is available to you, hold on to your deposit, cancel it when your old car does breakdown and you buy/lease another car. Your old car may last another year, very possibly, and M3 could be available by then. What's the harm in holding on the reservation?

4) If you want to go to a competing EV because you can't wait to drive an EV, same as 3 above, hold on to the reservation until you actually get your hands on the competing EV. Think about this, has anyone proven they can make much more than 20K/yr 200 mile range EV? If just 5% of the Tesla M3 reservation holders go this route, the supply of that alternative EV will also be overwhelmed, and you may end up having to wait for the other EV also. If you hold on to the M3 reservation, you always have the chance that your name would be called before the other EV is available. And you can always cancel once you actually secured the other EV.

5) If you want to cancel to spite Tesla, by all means you should. I think you don't want to be driving a car that reminds you so much animosity anyway. Also I think it's a fair message to send, and a good lesson for Tesla to learn, although Tesla may or may not feel the pain since their reservation list is still growing.

My two cents on the entire LR vs SR is don’t wait for the SR go for the LR because you may be eligible for the rebate which will offset the increased cost. Also the LR will have a much better resale down the road and if there is any battery degradation down the road you have a lot more miles to play with. Of course this only applies if you have the funds.

 

[MikeBur]

To anyone think of canceling, here is my 2 cents:

1) If you can't afford to let the $1K deposit sit, cancel immediately, you shouldn't be buying a $35K+ car

2) If you're canceling because you're worried that the EV credit will disappear when the SR is available, and if you don't get the $7500 rebate then you can't afford the $35K car, then I think you should cancel, same reason as 1 above. In the end it's still just a car, there is no reason to risk one's financial stability for it.

3) If your old car may be breaking down, and you might need to buy a car before M3 is available to you, hold on to your deposit, cancel it when your old car does breakdown and you buy/lease another car. Your old car may last another year, very possibly, and M3 could be available by then. What's the harm in holding on the reservation?

4) If you want to go to a competing EV because you can't wait to drive an EV, same as 3 above, hold on to the reservation until you actually get your hands on the competing EV. Think about this, has anyone proven they can make much more than 20K/yr 200 mile range EV? If just 5% of the Tesla M3 reservation holders go this route, the supply of that alternative EV will also be overwhelmed, and you may end up having to wait for the other EV also. If you hold on to the M3 reservation, you always have the chance that your name would be called before the other EV is available. And you can always cancel once you actually secured the other EV.

5) If you want to cancel to spite Tesla, by all means you should. I think you don't want to be driving a car that reminds you so much animosity anyway. Also I think it's a fair message to send, and a good lesson for Tesla to learn, although Tesla may or may not feel the pain since their reservation list is still growing.

Agree with your thinking.

Tesla always has sold most expensive first, to lower configs last. I would be unsurprised if the primary reason why AWD pushed out was the additional build complexity and/or software/drivetrain complexity thereby limiting ability to ship within timeline expectations

I believe there’s a little more to say around the cost too. There’s multiple trade off and d3cision points based on available incentives against the varying additional configs over time.

Current version available *requires* additional 9000 (battery) + 5000 (PUP), though has -7500 for fed tax credit. So RWD for min cost of $49000 (41500 after tax credit)

In 6-9 months I believe we’ll likely be 3750 for tax credit.
In 6-9 months I believe we’ll see additional SKU of first AWD configs (likely tied to large battery and PUP at first), effectively 49000+4500 =53500 (49750 after 3750 tax credit, though could possibly be 46000 depending if Tesla hold back deliveries for a couple of months (unlikely))
In 9-12 months I believe we’ll see addition of AWD configs tied to PUP though with SR battery (with huge push to get as many shipped in remaining quarter for tax credit/end of year), effectively 35000+5000+4500 =44500 (40750 after 3750 tax credit)
In 12 months, I’d expect fed tax credit to be 1875
In 12-15 months I believe we’ll see AWD basic configs at min of 35000+4500=39500
In 15-18 months I believe we’ll see RWD basic configs at min of 35000
In 18 months, I’d expect fed tax credit to be zero

This is the way I would see this netting out to:
Today: 41500 for RWD LR PUP
~6 months 41500 for RWD LR PUP, 46000 for AWD LR PUP (unlikely)
***Fed tax to 3750***
~9 months 45250 for RWD LR PUP, 49750 for AWD LR PUP, 40750 for AWD SR PUP
~12 months 45250 for RWD LR PUP, 49750 for AWD LR PUP, 40750 for AWD SR PUP, 35750 for AWD SR
***Fed tax to 1875***
~15 months. 47125 for RWD LR PUP, 51625 for AWD LR PUP, 42625 for AWD SR PUP, 37625 for AWD SR, 33125 for RWD SR

So, few things I worked out to help my decision making:
1) it’s 8375 (41500-33125) for a Model 3 with 50% extra range, nicer interior and features today, vs base model 15 months from now. You can likely justify this gap is lower based on expected resale value and also the 15 months of additional enjoyment.
2) if LR AWD can make the higher fed tax credit then this could bring the effective price difference down to < 6000 for LR battery.

Multiple assumptions I made here:
Based on production/deliver rates of 10k/wk being hit within next 2 months
Doesn’t comprehend local state incentives.
These are min config prices and doesn’t reflect non-required options.
I was told there would be no math, and this is likely not worth the paper it was written on (hint: no paper was used ).

 

[ww73]

Personally I'm glad this is shaking out the weak longs.

LR + PUP costs $14k extra, but depending on your state, you'll get back ~$10k in state and federal incentives. So it's really $39k + tax/fees. In other words, it only costs $4k to move up the line.

The government is practically paying for LR. Just need to pony up for PUP. If u wait for SR you get nothing.

For those who planned on getting this car for $25k after incentives, your expectations might be a bit too optimistic.

 

[flashflooder]

Personally I'm glad this is shaking out the weak longs.

LR + PUP costs $14k extra, but depending on your state, you'll get back ~$10k in state and federal incentives. So it's really $39k + tax/fees. In other words, it only costs $4k to move up the line.

The government is practically paying for LR. Just need to pony up for PUP. If u wait for SR you get nothing.

For those who planned on getting this car for $25k after incentives, your expectations might be a bit too optimistic.

Read: "go be poor somewhere else"

 

[dm33]

Agree with your thinking.

Tesla always has sold most expensive first, to lower configs last. I would be unsurprised if the primary reason why AWD pushed out was the additional build complexity and/or software/drivetrain complexity thereby limiting ability to ship within timeline expectations

This is the issue. Elon didn't say they'd come up with other versions to cut in line in front of the $35k car. When will it stop or will it ever stop. It seems clear that no $35k vehicle will ever be made until they can't sell every higher priced option they can think of. That will include AWD, performance, upgraded interiors, etc, etc. "Early 2019" seems highly questionable.

AWD was pushed AHEAD of SR.

Multiple assumptions I made here:
Based on production/deliver rates of 10k/wk being hit within next 2 months
Doesn’t comprehend local state incentives.
These are min config prices and doesn’t reflect non-required options.
I was told there would be no math, and this is likely not worth the paper it was written on (hint: no paper was used ).

? 10k/wk in next two months? Even Elon doesn't make a claim like that. Do you mean in 2 years? Sounds like he might be hedging on ever doing 10k/wk. Sales may not support it. At this rate, the Model Y may be coming out before then and they'll shift production focus to that car.

Most states do not have incentives BTW.

 

[CPennypacker]

Not cancelling or anything, and Tesla doesn't owe anyone a tax credit, but I gotta say - I honestly don't get the "if you need the tax credit you can't afford this car" posts, honestly. It can drop the cost of the car by net up to 21%. Don't be such a snob.

 

[AviP]

Pricing estimates I've seen are all above $50,000, closer to $60K - $70K


Yes, you're wrong. 5,000 per week is the goal by mid 2018, max production goal is 10K per week. And, even if you're right, all your doing highlighting the fact that Tesla can sell every car they produce for the foreseeable future.

Anything over $40K and I'm out. I'm just looking at a BEV for local runs upto 100 miles per day. For longer runs, I usually tow my family along and go with my gas guzzling 6-seater Ram 1500.

As to the production rates, I don't feel 10K is a reasonable number in the short term. It might become a reality if they don 't run out of cash.

And no, I'm not short TSLA.

 

[david_42]

Standard range with AWD appears to be available mid-2018...

As I've pointed out in another thread, the SR RWD version (in theory) has less acceleration that the LR, even though the LR is 270 lbs heavier. This points to the SR being power-limited with just one motor. Adding a second motor without the LR battery makes little sense and I suspect most (if not all) people who want AWD will spring for the LR. If you just want AWD for better traction in ice and snow, don't forget the SR battery will be even less capable in the cold.

 

[AviP]

Not cancelling or anything, and Tesla doesn't owe anyone a tax credit, but I gotta say - I honestly don't get the "if you need the tax credit you can't afford this car" posts, honestly. It can drop the cost of the car by net up to 21%. Don't be such a snob.

I'm not cancelling either until I have a suitable alternative. And I agree with your tax statement. The money-savvy among us are those who want the SR and the tax credit is a big incentive in bringing the cost down.

 

[david_42]

Not cancelling or anything, and Tesla doesn't owe anyone a tax credit, but I gotta say - I honestly don't get the "if you need the tax credit you can't afford this car" posts, honestly. It can drop the cost of the car by net up to 21%. Don't be such a snob.

Since it is a non-refundable credit, you have to owe the full $7500 in taxes in the year of purchase to get the full credit. That means your income typically has to be in the $100,000-200,000 bracket.