Model 3 standard range postponed until Early 2019

[gregincal]

While the timing of my second kid's arrival was a huge factor in my cancellation (not a variable at the time of reservation), the repeated delays and now potential loss of the full federal tax credit for the SR version was another very big reason for me to cancel. Almost like Tesla is leveraging the full federal tax credit as a $7,500 "thank you" to it's existing owners. Cool gift, but lame for someone like me who was banking on it as a decisive variable.

I don't see how it has anything to do with existing owners. Chances are people ordering first production will get the full credit whether owners or not. Likewise, existing owners who want the SR car will not get the full credit.

 

[206er]

I don't see how it has anything to do with existing owners. Chances are people ordering first production will get the full credit whether owners or not. Likewise, existing owners who want the SR car will not get the full credit.

Ok... then Tesla is leveraging the full federal tax credit as a "thank you" to anyone willing to buy the most expensive version of their supposedly affordable, mass market vehicle.

I definitely would not have lined up for hours outside on a cold morning to reserve had I known that the full federal tax credit wouldn't be available for the $35k version, but the more I think about it, the more I suspect that Elon knew that a while ago...

 

[Trips]

Ok... then Tesla is leveraging the full federal tax credit as a "thank you" to anyone willing to buy the most expensive version of their supposedly affordable, mass market vehicle.

I definitely would not have lined up for hours outside on a cold morning to reserve had I known that the full federal tax credit wouldn't be available for the $35k version, but the more I think about it, the more I suspect that Elon knew that a while ago...

When you lined up not many thought that the full credit would be available for the $35k version. Most people were thinking a Model 3 P90D version would be the first to be produced. The order of deliveries and configuration has not changed, if anything they are delivering a lower version and at a much more rapid pace.

 

[206er]

When you lined up not many thought that the full credit would be available for the $35k version. Most people were thinking a Model 3 P90D version would be the first to be produced. The order of deliveries and configuration has not changed, if anything they are delivering a lower version and at a much more rapid pace.

Not many thought?

Maybe not many current owners or brand fans, of which I was just becoming in 2016 after seeing a few Ss drive around. I knew nothing of the history of the company, "Elon time", or prior production/delivery issues with the S or X. I just wanted a sexy looking EV for the price of a decently optioned Civic, which is where I allowed myself to be hooked with "affordable $35k mass market car". Yes, perhaps I should've done more research on the company's past prior to lining up outside of a Tesla store. But even then, I probably would've assumed that after 3 cars, they had the process figured out and that Elon's subsequent proclamation of 10k units per week soon via alien dreadnought was actually possible (based on my interpretation of "soon", not his).

 

[DanL3]

I don't think Tesla knew what was going to happen when you waited in line. The world was surprised and Tesla is just managing this thing as they go.

Is Tesla making choices different than I would like? Sure, but they are in control. We can go with the choices Tesla makes or we can pull out of the process and get our $1000 back. We all should have known that was possible when we started.

So at this point I choose to stay in the process and go along for the ride.

 

[MediumFidelity]

I definitely would not have lined up for hours outside on a cold morning to reserve had I known that the full federal tax credit wouldn't be available for the $35k version, but the more I think about it, the more I suspect that Elon knew that a while ago...

I bet past Elon wouldn't believe you if you said the battery packs would be constraint, given that they've build a lot of batteries and Gigafactory 1 was on the upswing. Just think, back in December it looked like the credit might go away at the end of 2017, so to some extent we're lucky we'll even get a partial credit.

I was in line at 4am, and even though it was cold and rainy, it was fun* to be one of the crazy ones lining up to reserve a car they've never seen. Something to tell the grandkids. ;-) Elon is forever an optimist (I mean come on, what can't be done in 6 months?), but I do think some of the delivery plans could have been more clearly communicated. I'm still waiting to see a non-PUP build of the car, though that'll probably be the last thing built.

Later,
MF

*I also enjoy flying to Florida to watch rocket launches get scrubbed by poor weather or wayward boats, so I'm out there.

 

[ℬête Noire]

Not many thought?

Maybe not many current owners or brand fans, of which I was just becoming in 2016 after seeing a few Ss drive around. I knew nothing of the history of the company, "Elon time", or prior production/delivery issues with the S or X. I just wanted a sexy looking EV for the price of a decently optioned Civic, which is where I allowed myself to be hooked with "affordable $35k mass market car". Yes, perhaps I should've done more research on the company's past prior to lining up outside of a Tesla store. But even then, I probably would've assumed that after 3 cars, they had the process figured out and that Elon's subsequent proclamation of 10k units per week soon via alien dreadnought was actually possible (based on my interpretation of "soon", not his).

You are missing a crucial point, beyond "should've have done more research". You were NOT told that the $35K variant would be first. So this "Elon time" doesn't even apply to that.

 

[stopcrazypp]

You are missing a crucial point, beyond "should've have done more research". You were NOT told that the $35K variant would be first. So this "Elon time" doesn't even apply to that.

Yeah, based on past history, Tesla always released the more expensive configurations first and for Model 3 they never promised they would release the $35k configuration first. The people arguing they would do so just had a lot of unjustified wishful thinking.

I think Tesla will still try their best to maximize the available credits, but having the line be profitable more critical for the company than this. They still have shareholders to answer to.

 

[azred]

Ok... then Tesla is leveraging the full federal tax credit as a "thank you" to anyone willing to buy the most expensive version of their supposedly affordable, mass market vehicle.

I definitely would not have lined up for hours outside on a cold morning to reserve had I known that the full federal tax credit wouldn't be available for the $35k version, but the more I think about it, the more I suspect that Elon knew that a while ago...

I like your theory. I have my car and will get a big delicious $7500 tax credit. Elon Musk likes me best. It’s good to be liked.

 

[206er]

Yeah, based on past history, Tesla always released the more expensive configurations first and for Model 3 they never promised they would release the $35k configuration first. The people arguing they would do so just had a lot of unjustified wishful thinking.

I think Tesla will still try their best to maximize the available credits, but having the line be profitable more critical for the company than this. They still have shareholders to answer to.

When has answering the shareholders ever been a concern for Elon?

 

[206er]

You are missing a crucial point, beyond "should've have done more research". You were NOT told that the $35K variant would be first. So this "Elon time" doesn't even apply to that.

Yes, I should’ve been more aware that the expensive, non-mass market versions of the car billed as a $35k mass market vehicle would go first. Silly me.

 

[WhiteMountains]

The first day that reservations were allowed, no one know how many people would reserve, even Tesla. I have a newspaper article from that day that said that industry experts expected about 95,000 total reservations by the time that production began. There were more than that the first day. The scale of the manufacturing problem that Tesla was facing got multiplied by a factor of 5 that day.

 

[AviP]

Ok... then Tesla is leveraging the full federal tax credit as a "thank you" to anyone willing to buy the most expensive version of their supposedly affordable, mass market vehicle.

I definitely would not have lined up for hours outside on a cold morning to reserve had I known that the full federal tax credit wouldn't be available for the $35k version, but the more I think about it, the more I suspect that Elon knew that a while ago...

I agree with 206er because arguably the customers who need the $7500 the most are those being sent to the end of the line.

Every company caters to its customers first and foremost, even before their employees. Tesla is doing the opposite: First deliveries are to employees.

Every company treats orders on a FIFO basis. First-in, first-out. Barring minor production issues, this works in every industry. Tesla is favoring existing Tesla owners and higher end models, not a FIFO list. This has nothing to do with a robotic line. They can be programmed to build whatever is desired. This has everything to do with cash flow. So effectively, someone who placed an order in 2017 can get a LR before me, who stood in the line because I wanted to be first. Tesla is not customer friendly.

Elon Musk might be a great entrepreneur but a very poor relationship manager. I don't care about rockets, TBMs or flamethrowers. I just want a FIFO deliverable, dammit!

 

[DanL3]

Every company treats orders on a FIFO basis. First-in, first-out. Barring minor production issues, this works in every industry.

No, Companies deliver product based on what is best for the company.

When orders are matching production or backlog is reasonable then FIFO works best because it appears "Fair" to the customer and that keeps all the orders in line and so more of then turn into cash.

When backlog gets so large that the company is going to lose many of those orders... Then the company does the orders fist that give the most cash. This is what works in every industry.

If you feel that you are being "written off" that is because you are not as valuable as other customers. You won't like it, but it is the way it is in a free economy. Go to a Jr College and take Economics 101.

 

[ebmcs03]

It’s all about $$$$ whatever Tesla can make.

But part of the business is capturing new market share. Get new customers. Tesla clearly is not worried about that right now.

 

[DanL3]

It’s all about $$$$ whatever Tesla can make.

But part of the business is capturing new market share. Get new customers. Tesla clearly is not worried about that right now.

Right now, for Tesla, It is worried about not doing something that might chase the new market share away.

Back on subject "SR Postponed" I expect that the SR can not do 220 miles as designed, and so they do not want to ship something that may get them negative press.

Note that LR customers are rated 310 and seeing 305miles. ratio that down to the SR and you get 200miles instead of 220miles. If I got a SR that only did 200 miles I might complain about that.

 

[dm33]

If you feel that you are being "written off" that is because you are not as valuable as other customers. You won't like it, but it is the way it is in a free economy. Go to a Jr College and take Economics 101.

Which is why the $35k may never appear. In a moderate scenario, Tesla makes moderate but not huge quantities of vehicles and has enough customer interest to sell $50k cars with no need to ever produce a $35k car. They may be perfectly content to make a smaller premium car in the $50-60k price range as a complement to the Model S $70-120k

 

[jgs]

Every company treats orders on a FIFO basis.

I take it you have never flown.

 

[stopcrazypp]

When has answering the shareholders ever been a concern for Elon?

I don't know about Elon, but the company certainly cares. Tesla plays plenty of quarterly games in terms of driving sales.

 

[N5329K]

Which is why the $35k may never appear. In a moderate scenario, Tesla makes moderate but not huge quantities of vehicles and has enough customer interest to sell $50k cars with no need to ever produce a $35k car. They may be perfectly content to make a smaller premium car in the $50-60k price range as a complement to the Model S $70-120k

Except there's that pesky mission statement:
"To accelerate the advent of sustainable transport by bringing compelling mass market electric cars to market as soon as possible."
As soon as possible might take a little longer.
Robin