Model S December Production email

[dsmith2189]

My signature countdown is for the estimated delivery of the car that I was given by my product specialist. I have the standard 15-31 Dec 2012 window for completion of the car. My goodness this wait is killing me. It seems the closer the date gets the worse the wait seems.

To any/all Tesla employees reading this - I've got money burning a hole in my pocket Tesla! Come and get it.

My isssue right now is that I have the bank loan draft and other cash on hand primed and ready to go. I've been told that my final paperwork is almost done and the instructions for getting the money to them is included. the wait is killing me too. If I want the car before new years I have to get the money to them this weekend.

 

[TEG]

Tesla Works The System To Give $7,500 Federal Credit Christmas Present To Future Model S OwnersAnd Maybe Themselves

 

[Lyon]

Tesla Works The System To Give $7,500 Federal Credit Christmas Present To Future Model S OwnersAnd Maybe Themselves

Must be a slow news day.

This guy is implying that Tesla is misleading shareholders through this scheme by artificially inflating their delivery numbers for 2012. Frankly, as long as Tesla 1) Has completed each car, 2) received payment in full for each car, and 3) placed each car on a delivery truck, I don't see any problems with what they're doing.

 

[EVNow]

This guy is implying that Tesla is misleading shareholders through this scheme by artificially inflating their delivery numbers for 2012. Frankly, as long as Tesla 1) Has completed each car, 2) received payment in full for each car, and 3) placed each car on a delivery truck, I don't see any problems with what they're doing.

That is not what "statik" is saying. He is saying this has implications for Q1 numbers.

 

[montgom626]

That is not what "statik" is saying. He is saying this has implications for Q1 numbers.

I am guessing they are going to take next week off given that it is X-mas, New Years, etc. So, they are trying to get as much done Q4 as possible.

 

[Lyon]

That is not what "statik" is saying. He is saying this has implications for Q1 numbers.

That's not at all the way I read it. This is the section that gave me the impression I noted above:

"What is happening here this month (and with this offer), at least to this reporter, is Tesla is materially changing the way they do business to pull forward as many sales that would have otherwise happened in January into December to obscure their inability to ramp production and deliver the cars for their fiscal year end as promised. Theoretically, even 2-3 weeks production pulled forward into 2012 could net Tesla close to an additional 1,000 sales."

It's the part about Tesla trying to obscure their inability to ramp production. The assumptions the author makes negates that very assumption. Apparently Tesla CAN ramp to meet the revised production target even they've been running into difficulties getting that many cary delivered in that period. The fact that Tesla is temporarily changing delivery method does not mean that they're gaming the system.

In fact, stockholders should be pissed if Tesla doesn't do everything in its power to meet the 2012 projections. If they don't the stock price will take a big hit (IMHO).

 

[dsmith2189]

Must be a slow news day.

This guy is implying that Tesla is misleading shareholders through this scheme by artificially inflating their delivery numbers for 2012. Frankly, as long as Tesla 1) Has completed each car, 2) received payment in full for each car, and 3) placed each car on a delivery truck, I don't see any problems with what they're doing.

Tesla Works the System article.
"Customers as far away as Hawaii, are being offered cars not yet completed in California, and may have been told still not to expect their cars in 2012."

Hey, I'm one of those Hawaii customers and his statement is not exactly correct. My delivery window is from Dec 19 to Jan 2. Yes, early on (the day after I got my delivery window) I was told that I may not see my car until the end of January, but that was an estimate when the Dec email first came out and things were a bit hectic at Tesla. But, once my Product Specialist double checked, I had my VIN the next day and it was a just a matter of time before the paperwork was caught up and I was on schedule to hit the delivery window. as a mater of fact it looks like my car had already been completed since some vehicles with later VINs have alredy been delivered. The only hitch right now is that the shipments to Hawaii are limted to one per week. My payment got in the day after the last shipment went out and I have to wait another week for the car to ship and then another week for transit and delivery. Guess what, I could still be in my delivery window.

I think this article is just another in a long line of articles trying to put a negative spin on what Tesla is doing. Why couldn't the article have been that Teslas initial ramp up had some issues and they lowered their expectations for Q4 for their stockholders. Then, in an attemtpt to catch up to their original target for Q4 they went into overdrive and increased their production capacity to reduce the 6 week production deficit and get things back on their original schedule. that would have been a much better article, but I guess it would be too positive for some people to accept.

 

[kendallpb]

That's not at all the way I read it. This is the section that gave me the impression I noted above:

"What is happening here this month (and with this offer), at least to this reporter, is Tesla is materially changing the way they do business to pull forward as many sales that would have otherwise happened in January into December to obscure their inability to ramp production and deliver the cars for their fiscal year end as promised. Theoretically, even 2-3 weeks production pulled forward into 2012 could net Tesla close to an additional 1,000 sales."

It's the part about Tesla trying to obscure their inability to ramp production. The assumptions the author makes negates that very assumption. Apparently Tesla CAN ramp to meet the revised production target even they've been running into difficulties getting that many cary delivered in that period. The fact that Tesla is temporarily changing delivery method does not mean that they're gaming the system.

In fact, stockholders should be pissed if Tesla doesn't do everything in its power to meet the 2012 projections. If they don't the stock price will take a big hit (IMHO).

I don't get the author. Either they are producing these cars or not; clearly they are. Moving deliveries around when they have the capacity is good. What, does he want Tesla to do nothing for a few weeks because some folks want it in 2013, some folks want 60 or 40 packs, etc.? How is this gaming anything--they are shipping the cars! Clearly, production is/has ramped! I'm curious to see what the final tally will be for December (heck, month-by-month for 2012).

Also, how many times have I ordered something at the end of 2012 and paid then--legally, sold in 2012!--and then it arrives in 2013 due to holiday shipping delays or whatever? Plenty o' times. ;-) How is this different? Just 'cuz Tesla's the new kid on the block.

 

[Brian H]

... Clearly, production is/has ramped! I'm curious to see what the final tally will be for December (heck, month-by-month for 2012).

Also, how many times have I ordered something at the end of 2012 and paid then--legally, sold in 2012!--and then it arrives in 2013 due to holiday shipping delays or whatever? Plenty o' times. ;-) How is this different? Just 'cuz Tesla's the new kid on the block.

Indeed; the writer is trying to confoose. Production is the creation of a product. The cars either exist or don't. Juggling delivery precedence has NOTHING to do with that!

 

[kcveins]

Tesla Works The System To Give $7,500 Federal Credit Christmas Present To Future Model S OwnersAnd Maybe Themselves

I have an issue with what he was saying here.......

.....While bringing the company to market Tesla had suggest they would deliver 5,000 Model S sedans by year’s end and another 20,000 in 2013 (5,000/quarter), then in a SEC filing it was reduced to a range of about 2,700-3,225. “We now anticipate that we will deliver between 200 and 225 Model S vehicles to customers in the third quarter and between 2,500 and 3,000 Model S vehicles in the fourth quarter. As such, we believe we will be approximately four to five weeks behind our previously announced Model S delivery goals as of the end of 2012″ – Sept 24th, 2012.........

...........Then, 11 days later, after their Q3 results it was lowered again
“Given Tesla’s rate of progress over the past few months, we are confident of being able to deliver 2,500 to 3,000 Model S vehicles in Q4 and over 20,000 in 2013.” – November 5th, 2012...........


Help me out here - how did they re-lower the guidance? Yes, they lowered it on 9.24, but after Q3 results were out, they said that they were STILL confident of being able to deliver the 2500 to 3000 cars in Q4?

 

[montgom626]

Help me out here - how did they re-lower the guidance? Yes, they lowered it on 9.24, but after Q3 results were out, they said that they were STILL confident of being able to deliver the 2500 to 3000 cars in Q4?

I am guessing building a car from a new design, in a new factory with new technology presents all sorts of challenges. Very dynamic situation.

 

[jvonbokel]

Among those that got the December delivery e-mail, has anyone had their delivery window updated into the new year? timdorr's spreadsheet is still showing quite a few delivery windows of 12/15-12/31, and I expect many of those are no longer accurate.

I'm in an unusual situation, such that I did not receive the December delivery e-mail, but I was invited to finalize days later, and was given the same 12/15-12/31 delivery window. I talked to my DS today, and while I expected him to rule out 2012, he did not. I don't see how it would be possible, seeing as I have no VIN yet, but what do I know? At this point, I'm expecting to get my car in early/mid January, but I don't know if they'll bother to give me a new delivery window.

 

[PattyChuck]

Among those that got the December delivery e-mail, has anyone had their delivery window updated into the new year? timdorr's spreadsheet is still showing quite a few delivery windows of 12/15-12/31, and I expect many of those are no longer accurate.

I'm in an unusual situation, such that I did not receive the December delivery e-mail, but I was invited to finalize days later, and was given the same 12/15-12/31 delivery window. I talked to my DS today, and while I expected him to rule out 2012, he did not. I don't see how it would be possible, seeing as I have no VIN yet, but what do I know? At this point, I'm expecting to get my car in early/mid January, but I don't know if they'll bother to give me a new delivery window.

I spoke to a Tesla factory guy yesterday (not my DS, but the guy who was covering for him). He told me there was no chance of me receiving the car in 2012 because it hadn't started down the assembly line yet. He was also unable to give me an updated delivery window, but he told me it would be "some time in January".

 

[markb1]

I have an issue with what he was saying here.......

.....While bringing the company to market Tesla had suggest they would deliver 5,000 Model S sedans by year’s end and another 20,000 in 2013 (5,000/quarter), then in a SEC filing it was reduced to a range of about 2,700-3,225. “We now anticipate that we will deliver between 200 and 225 Model S vehicles to customers in the third quarter and between 2,500 and 3,000 Model S vehicles in the fourth quarter. As such, we believe we will be approximately four to five weeks behind our previously announced Model S delivery goals as of the end of 2012″ – Sept 24th, 2012.........

...........Then, 11 days later, after their Q3 results it was lowered again
“Given Tesla’s rate of progress over the past few months, we are confident of being able to deliver 2,500 to 3,000 Model S vehicles in Q4 and over 20,000 in 2013.” – November 5th, 2012...........


Help me out here - how did they re-lower the guidance? Yes, they lowered it on 9.24, but after Q3 results were out, they said that they were STILL confident of being able to deliver the 2500 to 3000 cars in Q4?

They said the same thing in both quotes: 2500-3000 in Q4. The second quote doesn't talk about what they delivered prior to Q4. On the other hand, on the Tesla Bulletin Board, they seem to have misremembered what they said in the letter to shareholders:

When will 40 kWh cars, 60 kWh cars, Standard Suspension and new 2013 Red begin production? | Forums | Tesla Motors

Our original plan was to deliver 5,000 Model S in 2012. In our November letter to shareholders, we reduced our 2012 plan to between 2,500 and 3,000 while reaffirming 20,000 deliveries in 2013.

 

[jvonbokel]

He told me there was no chance of me receiving the car in 2012 because it hadn't started down the assembly line yet. He was also unable to give me an updated delivery window, but he told me it would be "some time in January".

That makes sense to me. In fact, that's what I would've expected to hear. I've been told that the VIN is assigned once it is a "Body in White" (completed frame). I've also been told that from the time the VIN is assigned, it takes about a week and a half to complete the car. That sounds a bit optimistic to me, but that's what I was told. So at this point, I expect to be assigned a VIN any day now, and that my delivery will be 2-3 weeks after that, so mid to late January perhaps.

 

[setritt]

i was told to call back in a week - i'm thinking there's no news coming then either...

key to success ----> manage expectations