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Model S range and interior update imminent?
- Thread starter Thorbjorn
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whitex
Well-Known Member
You know, reading all these posts how people cannot wait for the refresh made me think. I am replacing a Model S for my wife right now, and cannot even configure it the same way anymore as compared to just a year ago (no solid roof or spring suspension, have to go with the glass roof and soft air since plus version is discontinued as well). But that's not the main issue here, I was thinking about how people jumped onto the new AP2, some trading in AP1 cars and losing tens of thousands of dollars just to have the latest, and how that ended up working out for them. Would I want a completely refreshed car which will take months of not years before it does what the old one did? Do I really want Tesla's latest and greatest unproven design? When we got the last Model S a year ago, it had the Elon hyped AP2.0 and a new side mirror design. Well, it took 3 mirror replacements before the drivers side mirror stopped going limp while driving - this was caused by the new and apparently not sufficiently field tested mirror design which Tesla put into production (put into production in December 2016, took till March or April 2017 before the design was changed so it works reliably). It took months to get the headlights to automatically turn on (and not reliably at first either), a year before the wipers started detecting rain. I hear Model 3 is missing a number of S features too, and it's been out for few months too.
So for those who keep wishing and praying for the refresh model, be careful what you wish for. A completely redesigned Model S is very likely to have new, unproven, untested designs and lots of vaporware features (see Model 3 and its missing features). Do you really want to spend the time beta testing Tesla's new design, going back to SC to replace parts which didn't quiet turn out like they planned (like the mirrors at the beginning of 2017, or more recent charge plug that would accept superchargers), waiting for the next software release so that your car can turn its headlights on/off automatically instead of having to use a touch screen?
I just thought I would offer a different perspective on the "I want the latest" trend. With OTA in the picture (therefore ability to sell completely non-functional features with a promise of "someday it will work") and Tesla's Silicon Valley MO of ship it first, then fix it, do you really want an all new redesigned car? Maybe the incremental, every 2 weeks small production change Tesla has been using is a much better approach (test few new components at a time, rather than all new components).
Personally, an all new refresh would cause me to want to delay ordering - let the other guys be the guinea-pigs, and wait until it works before ordering.
So for those who keep wishing and praying for the refresh model, be careful what you wish for. A completely redesigned Model S is very likely to have new, unproven, untested designs and lots of vaporware features (see Model 3 and its missing features). Do you really want to spend the time beta testing Tesla's new design, going back to SC to replace parts which didn't quiet turn out like they planned (like the mirrors at the beginning of 2017, or more recent charge plug that would accept superchargers), waiting for the next software release so that your car can turn its headlights on/off automatically instead of having to use a touch screen?
I just thought I would offer a different perspective on the "I want the latest" trend. With OTA in the picture (therefore ability to sell completely non-functional features with a promise of "someday it will work") and Tesla's Silicon Valley MO of ship it first, then fix it, do you really want an all new redesigned car? Maybe the incremental, every 2 weeks small production change Tesla has been using is a much better approach (test few new components at a time, rather than all new components).
Personally, an all new refresh would cause me to want to delay ordering - let the other guys be the guinea-pigs, and wait until it works before ordering.
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S and X demand appears very high now, relative to supply indicated by June delivery for orders now. There is no reason for Tesla to now pull a demand lever in the form of a refresh.
I suspect that the demand will drop once the tax credit is cut in half, probably at year end, or perhaps as early as October.
Refreshing the S and X is a demand lever that probably shouldn't be pulled by Telsa until needed, so probably not until October or January '19.
Yes this is very common and a good strategy to hold out until the refresh in October or Jan.
I suspect that the demand will drop once the tax credit is cut in half, probably at year end, or perhaps as early as October.
Refreshing the S and X is a demand lever that probably shouldn't be pulled by Telsa until needed, so probably not until October or January '19.
Yes this is very common and a good strategy to hold out until the refresh in October or Jan.
I don't really believe the "high demand" claim. Why now? What has changed since, say November?
The Model 3 owners are much more close to their delivery, so they won't jump ship. The only ones that are pushed back are the base cars and if someone can't afford a LR Model 3, they won't buy a Model S.
So IMO this sudden push back has another reason. My bet is the incentives, but I would also welcome a refresh.
The reason I (Europe!) want a refreshed Model S are the very strong rumors that it will have CCS (Combined Charging System) support in addition to SuperCharging capabilities.
That would allow me to charge my S on numerous 150kW CCS chargers being deployed right now and in the near future.
In November you could get a p100d in a month or so. Now the wait is until June. Part if that may be the RHD production, but the other part is anyone who definitely wants to take delivery in time for the tax credit is putting their orders for an s or x in now or soon.
But they launch them at a very slow rate and only used ones. I don't think Space X has such a high demand of cars, but who knows?
I think the tax credit is the main reason. But I don't think it's people fearing the tax credit will run out, but rather Tesla fearing the tax credit will run out too soon. A month ago you could also get a Model S in a month, but suddenly it's a whole quarter.
If this would have slowly built up, from one month to two months to three months, I'd totally agree with the high demand claim. But from one week to the next, with no real reason they went from one month to three months. And that's very unusual. Additionally you can also get a June delivery in Europe, which is weird, since the cars take way longer to ship usually 1-2 months longer, than US cars.
So IMO this has to be another reason, not just high demand.
MountainRatMat
Member
While I completely agree with your statements, Tesla owners are the definition of early adopters and early adoption does have its foibles. This will not hinder the early adopters.
Except by that logic Tesla could have continued to sell the 85 battery because demand was high and they had no competition. However, they are expanding to new markets and competition is just a year away.
Basically the upper-end premium EV market dominance is for Tesla to lose and the best way to lose their market domination is to not update and refresh the Model S.
I could not have said it better myself. This is exactly why we are holding on our Model 3 reservation and haven't pulled the trigger. We won't until Tesla shows some maturity as a vehicle manufacturer that cares about quality.
I doubt a $7,500 tax credit is driving sales of $80,000+ cars at Tesla. The tax credit is far more important to Model 3 buyers.
The Germans, I'm afraid, are going to eat Tesla's lunch. Porsche is 100% committed to Mission E and its 20-minute, 250 mile 800v charging. Porsche took a swipe at Tesla just today, saying that its Mission E won't be subject to the overheating issues of Tesla's current Model S:
More Details on Porsche’s Mission E Electric Sedan: Yes, It’ll Have a Frunk
Knowing Porsche's attention to fit and finish, combined with the fact that they are currently in the process of building charging networks in both the EU and US, Tesla should take this threat seriously.
And I bet they do. This is why I think they need to refresh and update the Model S sooner rather than later.
The Model S is basically a 2012 design. Time for some new tech and design so I can upgrade
Brettski
Member
I'd be curious to know for what percent of Model-S owners, their car was their best yet - versus how many came over from BMW's and Mercedes etc at a similar price point. The former are probably more forgiving of fit/finish issues and the lack of fine interior design as opposed to the later.
CraZ8
Member
This is why the S and X are going to the model 3 permanent magnet motor later this year and the interior should get its refresh early next year
arubinst
Member
whitex
Well-Known Member
I get the desire for CCS, but would you be willing to trade off no heated seats, no auto headlight, no auto-wipers, no phone app control, no scheduled charging, no blind spot detection, no automatic braking, and who knows what other features that may not be functional for months or years if a whole new design is released? It took Tesla 6 years before they implemented the exit profile on the S (something I had on my old Lexuses, and worked better than the current S implementation).
Yes but weren’t the international delivery times already pretty far out there?
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