Model S Reservation Tally

[Larry Chanin]

I don't think there is a difference between SSL an S. Or that it makes any difference.
Or in other words, there does not exist both SSL32 and a S32.

I obviously disagree. :wink:

Larry

 

[Zythryn]

I obviously disagree. :wink:

Larry

Actually, I don't think we do, but I worded it poorly
While I accept your definitions, for numbering purposes it makes no difference.
SSL20 and S20 don't both exist. They don't start over with S1 when all the SSLs have been delivered.
So if there are 250 Roadster owners that ordered Signatures, it will go SSL249 then SSL250, then S251.
You may as well say S249, S250, S251.
The question S36 or SSL36 is meaningless, they are the same car.

 

[donauker]

Actually, I don't think we do, but I worded it poorly
While I accept your definitions, for numbering purposes it makes no difference.
SSL20 and S20 don't both exist. They don't start over with S1 when all the SSLs have been delivered.
So if there are 250 Roadster owners that ordered Signatures, it will go SSL249 then SSL250, then S251.
You may as well say S249, S250, S251.
The question S36 or SSL36 is meaningless, they are the same car.

There are non SSL reservations numbers in the same range as the SSL numbers.

 

[jcstp]

did it get mentioned here that #17 has been delivered?

Model S Delivery Update

 

[gg_got_a_tesla]

There are non SSL reservations numbers in the same range as the SSL numbers.

Correct. Fellow TMC forum member Laurent is "regular" Sig #2 and he confirmed that he's not SSL.

did it get mentioned here that #17 has been delivered?

Model S Delivery Update

That was Founder #17. Not a Sig.

 

[Larry Chanin]

did it get mentioned here that #17 has been delivered?

Model S Delivery Update

More precisely what that thread states is that Founders Seriers #17 is being prepared for delivery.

Larry

 

[JRod0802]

The total number of Special Signatures and Regular Signatures is 1,000.

Correct. Fellow TMC forum member Laurent is "regular" Sig #2 and he confirmed that he's not SSL.

So that means that if there were (for example) 305 Special Signatures, it would be SSL1 - SSL305 and then S1 - S695, right?

Also, does anyone know how many Special Signatures there are total?

Edit:

Larry, I see that under your name it says "Model S Perf Sig 1232". Does that mean you're signature 1232? I thought they didn't go that high.

 

[gg_got_a_tesla]

JRodo, as per the first post (that michiganmodels keeps up to date) on this thread, we are at:

US
SSL 244 (January 4, 2012)
S 1,278 (July 27, 2012)

These are unofficial of course. There have been deferrals (to General Production) or cancellations from SSL/S; at that time, when someone on the Sig wait list (such as Larry) was invited by Tesla to get a Sig, they were assigned a new Sig sequence number beyond 1,000 and that's at 1,278 now as far as we know. There are effectively atleast (278 + # of still-active SSLs) holes in the S sequence.

But, bottomline, SSL + S = 1,000.

 

[brianman]

Not to pick on JRodo802...

But after the Nth go round on this discussion, I really wish I had a place to start building the Model S FAQ so I could just link to it.

Perhaps I should just register a domain name and install some freeware wiki software so I can get started.

 

[brianman]

Nitpicker's corner: I've added the red.

But, effectively, remove_gaps(SSL + S) = 1,000 for U.S. market.

 

[Larry Chanin]

Larry, I see that under your name it says "Model S Perf Sig 1232". Does that mean you're signature 1232? I thought they didn't go that high.

I am regular Signature 1232. The highest reported Signature is 1278. As I said there will still only be 1,000 Signatures built. These are just reservation sequence numbers.

Larry

 

[brianman]

I am regular Signature 1232. The highest reported Signature is 1278. As I said there will still only be 1,000 Signatures built. These are just reservation numbers.
Larry

Nitpicker's corner: Technically incorrect.

Reservation Number looks like RN######.

In contrast, when you provide the deposit to complete your reservation, you get a mail saying something like...

Your Reservation Sequence number is 552 of the Signature reservation list.

Note that prior to committing your deposit, they use a different capitalization for the word 'number':

As soon as we receive your payment, we will contact you with your Reservation Sequence Number.

Another one for the Model S FAQ.

 

[contaygious]

Are they building all sigs before the first non-sig Ps? I'm Performance # 427.

 

[Larry Chanin]

Nitpicker's corner: Technically incorrect.

Reservation Number looks like RN######.

In contrast, when you provide the deposit to complete your reservation, you get a mail saying something like...


Note that prior to committing your deposit, they use a different capitalization for the word "number":



Another one for the Model S FAQ.

Thanks, I'll correct my posting.

Larry

 

[Arnold Panz]

But, bottomline, SSL + S = 1,000.

I always thought that this was the case, but are we 100% certain? Founders aside, if there are ~250 Sig Specials, and ~1278 regular Sigs, and only 1000 total Sigs (in the US) being built, that means that over 500 Sigs canceled their reservation at some point? That's seems like an exceedingly high percentage, especially because most Sigs were reserved in the last year and a half when they announced the 85 kWh battery pack, performance version etc. would be available for Sigs. If there is overlap in the sequencing #s (i.e., Sig Specials #1-250 and the regular Sigs #1-1278), that's an awful lot of deposits to be returned for them to only make 1000 of these total/combined.

 

[brianman]

Are they building all sigs before the first non-sig Ps? I'm Performance # 427.

My understanding is...

Generally speaking, yes but some exceptions:

1. Markets that haven't completed homologation or pricing will likely have Signatures produced and/or delivered after some non-signature vehicles in the "earlier" markets (the ones that completed H & P earlier). For example, I expect to see some U.S. R (and perhaps P) delivered before Canadian SSL #1.
2. For technical reasons (drama with an individual vehicle's quality) or efficiency reasons (supply lines or delivery batching), I expect that some of the first U.S. R vehicles will be delivered before the last U.S. S vehicles. But I don't expect it to be a large overlap (like < 20 vehicles) and I don't expect the overlap timeframe to be large (< 2 weeks).

 

[brianman]

that means that over 500 Sigs canceled their reservation at some point?

I don't interpret it to mean that. Elaborating...

(U.S. market only for the below)

Imagine for a moment there were zero cancellations and downgrades. In such a scenario, I would expect that Tesla would leave holes in the S list every time an SSL reserves.

Now, when there is a cancellation/downgrade that adds an additional hole in either the S list or the SSL list.

Seeing S reservation list rising to 1278 suggests that there are 278 holes in the S list (and <= 278 holes in the SSL list).


I don't know where you get the 500 number from. Perhaps you're double-counting holes in the SSL list (which are already accounted for in the S list in my description).

 

[JRod0802]

JRodo, as per the first post (that michiganmodels keeps up to date) on this thread, we are at:

US
SSL 244 (January 4, 2012)
S 1,278 (July 27, 2012)

These are unofficial of course. There have been deferrals (to General Production) or cancellations from SSL/S; at that time, when someone on the Sig wait list (such as Larry) was invited by Tesla to get a Sig, they were assigned a new Sig sequence number beyond 1,000 and that's at 1,278 now as far as we know. There are effectively atleast (278 + # of still-active SSLs) holes in the S sequence.

But, bottomline, SSL + S = 1,000.

Thanks! I didn't realize this was one of those threads that has an updated first post. Obviously I haven't read all 14 pages.

It's possible that others out there also didn't realize there was an updated first post... is there some way to indicate this so others don't get confused like I did? Maybe there already is, but I just missed it? Or maybe just re-title this thread to "Model S Reservation and Delivery Tally (Updated First Post)" or something?

 

[brianman]

@JRodo802 - This should be a pretty good clue...

Gross Total: 15,039- July 27, 2012

 

[JRod0802]

Imagine for a moment there were zero cancellations and downgrades. In such a scenario, I would expect that Tesla would leave holes in the S list every time an SSL reserves.

I haven't read this whole thread, so I'm feeling under-qualified to ask this question, but... why would you expect that? Do you have information that would make you believe they would leave holes, or is it just a suspicion?