Model S Reservation Tally

[Robert.Boston]

Thanks Robert.Boston. That is exciting!

Disclaimer: I'm making an educated guess! The rate at which Tesla Motors ramps up the factory is very uncertain (not only do we not know, but they don't know either -- it will depend on how well the line is doing). If things come together well, production could ramp up quickly. OTOH, some analysts think that Tesla has overstated 2012 deliveries by more than 2x; if they're right, you and I won't be seeing our cars this year at all, and no letter until the leaves are off the trees.

 

[Ilanzo]

Upload it to a Google Doc Spreadsheet and make it public then give us the link. Mine is in a Google Doc, I don't mind sharing the raw data, but I'll have to move that into a new spreadsheet separate from some other stuff I don't want to share. I'll try to do that this week.

Any luck updloading?

 

[Silenus136]

Is it odd that it is now mid-July, and we have not seen one single report of a Model S delivery beyond those delivered at the Fremont event? Shouldn't we be getting the occasional joyous photo of a new owner having the white trailer drop off a sparkling new Model S at their home? Some commentary about the first few days of ownership? Seems like Sigs way up into the low hundreds are scheduled for delivery in August and September, but to do that, Tesla would have to deliver several a day beginning right now. And the daily delivery burden increases with each week that goes by with no deliveries. I am Sig 695 and my MVPA says October.

 

[Citizen-T]

Is it odd that it is now mid-July, and we have not seen one single report of a Model S delivery beyond those delivered at the Fremont event? Shouldn't we be getting the occasional joyous photo of a new owner having the white trailer drop off a sparkling new Model S at their home? Some commentary about the first few days of ownership? Seems like Sigs way up into the low hundreds are scheduled for delivery in August and September, but to do that, Tesla would have to deliver several a day beginning right now. And the daily delivery burden increases with each week that goes by with no deliveries. I am Sig 695 and my MVPA says October.

It looks like they are giving the first 10 cars a couple weeks to exhibit any issues before delivering the next batch. There have been a bunch of independent reports of very early Sig holders that have been given specific delivery dates in the immediate future. Just because they are building 1 car a day doesn't mean that one person is getting a car each day.

At least two of the founders that took delivery on the 22nd have been gushing about their Model S. One made a YouTube video, and the other took a journalist for a ride (and let him drive).

EDIT:
I think we were under the impression that on the 22nd the flood gates were going to be opened, but apparently we misunderstood the plan. The 22nd was the first batch, there will be a second (presumably larger) batch soon.

 

[ckessel]

I think we were under the impression that on the 22nd the flood gates were going to be opened, but apparently we misunderstood the plan. The 22nd was the first batch, there will be a second (presumably larger) batch soon.

Yea, I was thinking "woohoo, shipping early!", but in hindsight it meant extra feedback time for Tesla before they truly start shipping. In my naiveté didn't really stop and think it through. The delay is a good thing and makes perfect sense as you really want that interval where Tesla can accomodate changes and it's better for all of us in the long run. It was probably Tesla's plan all along and now they simply have a little more wiggle room in the ramp up to 5k.

 

[brianman]

Yea, I was thinking "woohoo, shipping early!", but in hindsight it really meant extra feedback time for Tesla before they really start shipping. In my naiveté didn't really stop and think it through. The delay is a good thing and makes perfect sense as you really want that interval where Tesla can accomodate changes and it's better for all of us in the long run. I was probably Tesla's plan all along and now they simply have a little more wiggle room in the ramp up to 5k.

Investor and reservation-holder expectation setting was not done. It should have been done. IMO.

I'm not upset at Tesla for not doing so, but it was definitely a misstep not to use the blog or some other avenue to make it clearer what the timeline for SSL #1-20 would be.

 

[Todd Burch]

I'm not upset at Tesla for not doing so, but it was definitely a misstep not to use the blog or some other avenue to make it clearer what the timeline for SSL #1-20 would be.

Doesn't the MVPA specify an expected delivery date? How is that not setting reservation holders' expectations?

 

[brianman]

Doesn't the MVPA specify an expected delivery date? How is that not setting reservation holders' expectations?

I'm referring to the aggregate, not the individual.

Most of us don't get to see the MVPA dates for the low SSLs, so there's an absence of information. That leads to guessing and projecting, with even less information. That leads to inevitable disappointment, which is needless drama from a PR perspective.

 

[NigelM]

There have been a bunch of independent reports of very early Sig holders that have been given specific delivery dates in the immediate future.

How many? I think on the forum we've only heard about @Jason.

 

[Todd Burch]

I'm referring to the aggregate, not the individual.

Most of us don't get to see the MVPA dates for the low SSLs, so there's an absence of information. That leads to guessing and projecting, with even less information. That leads to inevitable disappointment, which is needless drama from a PR perspective.

I wouldn't call it a misstep. Tesla has no obligation to reveal every single one of its details to us. They're already the most transparent car company in history. IMHO, just because we're a bunch of Tesla freaks doesn't mean it's a misstep if they don't reveal every detail to us .

 

[Citizen-T]

I'm referring to the aggregate, not the individual.

Most of us don't get to see the MVPA dates for the low SSLs, so there's an absence of information. That leads to guessing and projecting, with even less information. That leads to inevitable disappointment, which is needless drama from a PR perspective.

I think this falls into the category of let them focus on delivering as perfect as possible cars and stop whining that we don't have all the juicy details to pour over on our lunch break. Remember, they are taking on the world with extremely limited resources. Let's let them do their thing.

If they get 5,000 delivered this year like they promised, I don't care if there was a couple weeks lul between the first deliveries and the second set.

 

[brianman]

If there's an opportunity to get a much better result, with very little effort or risk -- that's a misstep in my book.

Edit: I was going to try to find the posts but I think it was ckessel and AnOutsider that mentioned there was a let down after the "first 10" event, because in retrospect it felt like "an insider thing, not a general customer event". (I don't remember the exact wording.) But that let-down was felt by many of us, to varying degrees, and that's from the supporters. I'm surprised we haven't seen the "not so much a fan" blogs run with that by now. Again, needless negative PR.

 

[Silenus136]

Citizen - T: I've seen the founder's video (fun!) and enjoyed the ride-along article with the other founder. For what it is worth, while I have zero experience in automobile or any other manufacturing, I've always felt the assumptions on these boards that substantive tweaks to the car are being made based on feedback from the first 10 owners, this close to delivery of "regular" customer cars, is probably a bit overstated. I have to believe - and desperately hope as I prepare to drop 100g's on the thing - that EXHAUSTIVE testing and refinement was done well before the first deliveries. I guess the counter to that argument are the several, relatively minor items of unfinished business that still remain, like voice control, center console options, hill-hold feature, 4g, etc. But I don't think those things or fit and finish issues require founder input.

 

[ckessel]

I've always felt the assumptions on these boards that substantive tweaks to the car are being made based on feedback from the first 10 owners, this close to delivery of "regular" customer cars, is probably a bit overstated.

Elon was really the one to start that. He mentioned in an interview, after he and Jurveston took delivery, that he had "hundreds" of items he noted to the engineers so they could get the car as perfect as possible for general delivery.

 

[NigelM]

If they get 5,000 delivered this year like they promised....

The promised target is 5,000 produced this year. Given winter weather and the end of year holidays it's quite possible that up to 1,000 produced in December would be delivered next year.

 

[brianman]

@NigelM - In some places, they've said words closer to "delivered". I don't have the quotes handy, but it's come up before.

 

[Citizen-T]

Citizen - T: I've seen the founder's video (fun!) and enjoyed the ride-along article with the other founder. For what it is worth, while I have zero experience in automobile or any other manufacturing, I've always felt the assumptions on these boards that substantive tweaks to the car are being made based on feedback from the first 10 owners, this close to delivery of "regular" customer cars, is probably a bit overstated. I have to believe - and desperately hope as I prepare to drop 100g's on the thing - that EXHAUSTIVE testing and refinement was done well before the first deliveries. I guess the counter to that argument are the several, relatively minor items of unfinished business that still remain, like voice control, center console options, hill-hold feature, 4g, etc. But I don't think those things or fit and finish issues require founder input.

Nobody said anything about "substantive tweaks". But, look at the opportunity console (which still isn't finalized) and the mesh cover for the pano roof (which we still haven't seen) if you want examples of sizable changes that might be holding up regular deliveries.

Also, when we are talking about issues, we aren't talking about problems with the car's design, we are talking about manufacturing problems. As they spin up production at each level they could expose bugs or otherwise less-than-perfect irregularities that didn't show up when they were only building a car a week. So it's not like the car needs to be redesigned, but that the machines and processes that built them need more tuning.

BTW, we did hear in a thread somewhere that the founders that took delivery on the 22nd signed something that said Tesla could monitor performance and other statistics of their cars and that they would provide feedback to Tesla on an ongoing basis. They want to know about every squeak, leaking seal, etc.

I'm ok with that.

 

[NigelM]

@NigelM - In some places, they've said words closer to "delivered". I don't have the quotes handy, but it's come up before.

The discussion has been had on the forum before and there's plenty of instances where we say "deliver" 5,000 cars; but AFAIK no-one's actually come up with a Tesla quote saying we'll deliver 5,000 cars this year.

P.S. Please prove me wrong, I'd be delighted if it is "5,000 delivered"!

http://www.teslamotors.com/models/facts

 

[Todd Burch]

Edit: I was going to try to find the posts but I think it was ckessel and AnOutsider that mentioned there was a let down after the "first 10" event, because in retrospect it felt like "an insider thing, not a general customer event". (I don't remember the exact wording.) But that let-down was felt by many of us, to varying degrees, and that's from the supporters. I'm surprised we haven't seen the "not so much a fan" blogs run with that by now. Again, needless negative PR.

I understand where you're coming from, but with all due respect...blame the let down on your (our) own expectations. It's far from a negative PR event.

Tesla said deliveries would begin in July. They began founder deliveries in June. I don't see where Tesla's let anyone down. We all just expected that sig deliveries would follow right after the initial deliveries. *OUR* expectations were wrong. We have to admit that.

 

[cinergi]

FWIW I checked with Tesla last night about my SS 146 and they're still expecting August.