Um, no. My MVPA says September and I'm planning on November.
...yet.
If this becomes July 31, while technically correct it continues the "coming the winter" pattern that some of us find troubling.
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Model S Reservation Tally
- Thread starter Joel
- Start date
Citizen-T
Active Member
And in retrospect, our expectations should have been more accurate. I'll try to find the quote, but I'm pretty sure when Elon described the manufacturing ramp-up (maybe at the investor meeting or maybe on the last conference call?) he said that (very loose paraphrasing to follow...) they would build a batch at one car a day, pause, see if everything is ok, then build a batch at two a day, pause, make sure everything is still good, etc.
We are usually much more thorough than this. We let what we want blind us to the information that was already out there.
I think we need to get used to this pattern. I suspect this will continue until we reach 20k units.
EDIT:
I think there was another quote that I am remembering, but this one hints at what we are seeing as well.
"We’re keeping exact ramp, sort of confidential and in part because we want to as we increase the production, we want to stabilize it at various plateaus, evaluate the quality if it looks good, then ramp up. And our goal is to be at a run rate, an annualized run rate of greater than 20,000 you’d see at the end of the year."
Elon Musk, Q1 2012 Conference Call
We are usually much more thorough than this. We let what we want blind us to the information that was already out there.
I think we need to get used to this pattern. I suspect this will continue until we reach 20k units.
EDIT:
I think there was another quote that I am remembering, but this one hints at what we are seeing as well.
"We’re keeping exact ramp, sort of confidential and in part because we want to as we increase the production, we want to stabilize it at various plateaus, evaluate the quality if it looks good, then ramp up. And our goal is to be at a run rate, an annualized run rate of greater than 20,000 you’d see at the end of the year."
Elon Musk, Q1 2012 Conference Call
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In that fashion, expectation setting was much better. I agree.
It was in that same discussion where he talked about "10s" of cars in June, I think. At the time it sounded more like 20-30 cars, not literally 10.
The only expectations I have is that my car will be delivered around August 15th.
Speculations from people on forums may lead me to be disappointed if I buy into them. But it will be disappointment at myself for buying into such speculation.
Speculations from people on forums may lead me to be disappointed if I buy into them. But it will be disappointment at myself for buying into such speculation.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
"10s" of cars in June, I think. At the time it sounded more like 20-30 cars, not literally 10.
I'm sure his script said "10 S cars" and he just read it wrong
.
Citizen-T
Active Member
In that fashion, expectation setting was much better. I agree.
It was in that same discussion where he talked about "10s" of cars in June, I think. At the time it sounded more like 20-30 cars, not literally 10.
I can't disagree with you there, but I won't fault them for hitting the low-end of their new target after they moved it up a month.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Regardless, I can live with a month delay if it means the quality of the car is better.
That's important for Tesla, and the entire EV industry, to thrive.
That's important for Tesla, and the entire EV industry, to thrive.
Totally agree. My critique was on the commication front, not about the timeline. And again, it's a critique not a complaint.
Arnold Panz
Model Sig 304, VIN 542
I 100% agree with you. My only concern is that if production is too slow through Aug-Oct, it will make it virtually impossible to make 5000 cars by the end of the year. It's simple math.
More promising is the fact that they're doing production in bunches. Unlike most car factories, Tesla has plenty of space to keep a bunch of finished cars hanging around while they poke and prod them to make sure they're as perfect as possible. It's entirely reasonable that if they're making these in bunches, as opposed to just-in-time production getting the cars out the door as soon as they're made, that we could see several delivered at the same time, which would help get them back on track.
My general sense is that if they don't start producing non-Sigs by October they won't be able to ramp up fast enough to get to 5000. Keep in mind we always have these "lulls" after big events, and between running the factory and getting all the Amped Tour test drives done around the country, Tesla's got plenty on its plate!
Citizen-T
Active Member
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
I wonder if they've left breathing room on weekends and shift 2/3 to make up time if necessary. Seems that would be preferable to missing their estimate.
Norbert
TSLA will win
For a few months, Tesla might have to deal a lot with the unexpected remaining little things. I agree with whoever said a few pages ago that currently Tesla doesn't know themselves how long exactly this step will take. They have signaled a slow ramp up in the beginning already for some time, and recently Elon mentioned the list of 100 things they'd like to improve after he received his car. The same would have happened in July, but now it all happens one month earlier. They produced not only the 10 delivered, but also the test cars so we could have test drives. The ramp up will still be slow in the beginning, and I assume that's accounted for in the 5,000 estimate. However, at the end of the year, they will *probably* already be have been producing at the full rate for some time.
Arnold Panz
Model Sig 304, VIN 542
That's almost impossible, actually, because that would involve hiring an entire new workforce for those additional shifts, and training them, in a fairly short period of time. I don't think there's any realistic way to do that, other than an occasional Saturday with the existing workforce.
The other possibility is the Gilbert thinks at full capacity he can do more than 70 cars/day and so they can go slow through November and then really crank out a bunch of cars in December, but that seems like a pretty big risk to me.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
An extra few shifts a week might be all that's needed to catch up if they get behind...something that's certainly doable. They already have to have some sort of backup for when workers get sick, take vacation, etc.
FWIW, I know many industries that normally don't do a full week of production but occasionally do 7 days/week in short bursts to meet some sort of requirement.
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Hi Todd,
Even during the frenetic test drive activities at the factory on June 23rd, during a private tour I witnessed a crew working that Saturday to perfect the panel stamping operations.
Larry
I am one who would prefer to wait and have my S arrive done, ready and in perfect condition.. I don't want to be like this Kisker owner who is complaining about many aspects of the car..
Fisker Karma - Owner’s Review [Video] - autoevolution
And sorry if this should be in some other thread.. I just want to make the point that everyone is complaining about how TM is not pumping out cars fast and not giving any news about production. I'm sure they have found numerous issues from the Amp'd events that they need to digest the data and make tweaks. Let them do what they need to do. Let's all enjoy our cars when they are READY to be delivered.
Fisker Karma - Owner’s Review [Video] - autoevolution
And sorry if this should be in some other thread.. I just want to make the point that everyone is complaining about how TM is not pumping out cars fast and not giving any news about production. I'm sure they have found numerous issues from the Amp'd events that they need to digest the data and make tweaks. Let them do what they need to do. Let's all enjoy our cars when they are READY to be delivered.
I'll take an earlier delivery even if it means I'll have to get OTA software updates and occasional ranger visits to update things newer cars got.
At the Fremont event, I spoke with the Director of Tesla's Asia Pacific division, and he gave me the impression that he had a low sig number (~20) and would receive his in late July. He also said that those of us who are waiting will probably get better cars because Tesla is working hard to learn what it can from these early recipients before ramping up and a faster rate. This all makes sense to me.
Note that 20,000 per year could mean 80 per day assuming 50 five day work weeks. If they get to 80 to 100 per day, they can deliver 5000 in the final quarter of this year. I'm pretty sure they will be delivering most of the sig versions by the end of October if not sooner, and let's face it, in three months, the ramp details really won't matter. I think we should chill and see what happens.
Note that 20,000 per year could mean 80 per day assuming 50 five day work weeks. If they get to 80 to 100 per day, they can deliver 5000 in the final quarter of this year. I'm pretty sure they will be delivering most of the sig versions by the end of October if not sooner, and let's face it, in three months, the ramp details really won't matter. I think we should chill and see what happens.
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Norbert
TSLA will win
Tweet from Elon:
Elon Musk @elonmusk
Going at full speed! MT “@iansomerhalder: Elon- you are my hero my friend.Please!Ramp up production on cars that use NO gas."
Elon Musk @elonmusk
Going at full speed! MT “@iansomerhalder: Elon- you are my hero my friend.Please!Ramp up production on cars that use NO gas."
I'm near the end of the Sig run, and I was initially told late September, early October. My MVPA paperwork shows October, and I'm hoping earlier.
I am trying to maintain patience, although I told my configuration specialist that he misspelled "August" on my MVPA.
I am trying to maintain patience, although I told my configuration specialist that he misspelled "August" on my MVPA.
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