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Model S Reservation Tally

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This two-week rate would translate into 4,200 net new reservations for the 2012 Q3. This is significant, considering the last two quarters resulted in 1,630 and 1,670 net new reservations.

Granted, this extrapolation is extraordinarily optimistic (re: unrealistic).
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Not so much. A sustained sales rate of 20K/annum is 5K/quarter, after all. Ramping up to that level, and then beyond, is what I'd expect!
 
With the talk of a few Sig Special deliveries being made during the week of 7/29, does this mean the balance the Founders cars (#11 - 35?) will be delivered before this date?

On July 6th Tesla provided that delivery estimate for Special Signature reservation holder #4. If two weeks later the date is still firm, then yes, the inference is that the balance of the Foundation Series will be delivered this month.

Larry
 
10608 was reported in the Portland thread (for today).

The store reps said it was a good weekend kick off, and it was mid Saturday only. "Exceeded their expectations." They wouldn't disclose anything, and I don't blame them. I think I heard through someone else (how they would know this I'm unsure), but indicated at least 6 had signed up in the 24 hours before me. Maybe from just observation, of those going to the "quiet room.", and I believe there was someone not long after me signing up too. I'll bet their numbers will be significantly stronger than that before this weekend is over (strong double digits I'd expect). The next 45 days will kick up a lot of dust on this front. :)

I should point out this is rumor on rumor, which I don't like to post on. So take this with a grain of salt.
 
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I'm sure the Get Amped tour has had an impact on X reservations, too.

It certainly might. My wife drove the S yesterday--liked it, but didn't love it as I had hoped she would. Now we are considering switching to the X. She prefers a taller vehicle, and the extra passenger space in the X is a factor as well. Alas, we cannot afford to do both--college savings plan be damned!
 
It certainly might. My wife drove the S yesterday--liked it, but didn't love it as I had hoped she would. Now we are considering switching to the X. She prefers a taller vehicle, and the extra passenger space in the X is a factor as well. Alas, we cannot afford to do both--college savings plan be damned!
You could keep both options open; stay with your S reservation till it's decision time, then defer if necessary. Meanwhile (now) also reserve an X. That way your 'moment of truth' doesn't come till you have to confirm or cancel the S for sure. Then you get back your $5K, and still have the benefit of the 'early' X reservation.
 
I saw 10151 reported on 7/7 so to 10636 now, I guess that is more like 450 in three weeks, wonder when the last time they took that many in 3 weeks was!

I think it is more like 485 in 15 days, which would be 453 in 2 weeks. However, that's just the US number. Taking the sum from 7/7 and 7/22, even though some of the numbers included are not from exactly these days, the difference is 503 in 15 days, which would be 469 in two weeks.

Either way, more than 1,000 per month. (Unless there are lots of cancellations which is probably not the case.)
 
While this is certainly fantastic, in relation to where we have been, it is sobering to realize that Tesla has to maintain a rate of 1,667 every month next year and subsequently, to sell the 20,000 per year they are forecasting.

Some were posting graphs recently which showed that the rate is continuously increasing. I think these number indicate that this trend is getting there easily. 20k per year is not that large a number, for a well-received product.