Model X Production ramp up discussion

[mspohr]

My WAG: cut each of your numbers in half in 2015.....all sigs (US) delivered in 2015. After that better ramp. TM might hit 5,000 total produced Jan 31, 2016

I think the numbers are realistic except that they may encounter issues which hold up production.
The assembly line is certainly capable of producing at this level and as long as there are no issues, they could meet these numbers.
However, there will inevitably be quality fit and finish issues with the early production. Hopefully, most of these will have been taken care of by the pre-production but there may well be "show stoppers".

 

[Newb]

you asked for it.... This is a total WAG What is the WAG on reservation drop outs so we can guess when I will see our X?

Week ending	# produced	Cumulative total
10/2/2015	25	25
10/9/2015	25	50
10/16/2015	50	100
10/23/2015	50	150
10/30/2015	100	250
11/6/2015	100	350
11/13/2015	250	600
11/20/2015	250	850
11/27/2015	100	950
12/4/2015	250	1200
12/11/2015	500	1700
12/18/2015	750	2450
12/25/2015	500	2950
1/1/2016	500	3450
1/8/2016	750	4200
1/15/2016	1000	5200
1/22/2016	1000	6200
1/29/2016	1000	7200

Thanks! I think that your WAG is somewhat conservative/pessimistic. Based on your table, we'd end up with only around 3,200 Model X produced and thus 2,700 delivered by the end of the year. TM will try their best to get to 5,000 cars produced, I think. I'd guess that the ramp up curve of the X (as stated by EM) should go steeper. Furthermore, I'm optimistic that it could lift-off earlier (=mid to late November) and accelerate in December to 750 cars per week and about 1,000 cars per week in January. So I'm giving it a try, too, and have put the two WAGs on a chart:

So, with that, they should be able to deliver around 4,000-4,500 Xs in 2015.

 

[vgrinshpun]

you asked for it.... This is a total WAG What is the WAG on reservation drop outs so we can guess when I will see our X?

Week ending	# produced	Cumulative total
10/2/2015	25	25
10/9/2015	25	50
10/16/2015	50	100
10/23/2015	50	150
10/30/2015	100	250
11/6/2015	100	350
11/13/2015	250	600
11/20/2015	250	850
11/27/2015	100	950
12/4/2015	250	1200
12/11/2015	500	1700
12/18/2015	750	2450
12/25/2015	500	2950
1/1/2016	500	3450
1/8/2016	750	4200
1/15/2016	1000	5200
1/22/2016	1000	6200
1/29/2016	1000	7200

I think that this is probably very realistic projection. Elon mentioned on more than one occasion that the MX ramp-up will be much quicker than MS ramp-up. The later statements from him, however, emphsized that MX body has more complexities. So I think it is conservative to assume that ramp- up will be at least as fast as MS. If the MX deliveries start in September, and given that MS deliveries back in 2012 were 250 cars in Q3 and 2400 cars in Q4, it is totally reasonable to assume that MX deliveries in 2015 would be about the same as MS deliveries in 2012.

So I think that Tesla is very likely to deliver about 2500 MX in 2015.

 

[ptsagcy]

I'm having a hard time giving rumors of unfinished supply chain relationships any credence at all. The only place I can kind of imagine this as being reasonably possible, with production deliveries starting in a few weeks, would be completely standard parts like tires, wheels, windshield wiper blades - parts that are made by at least 2 manufacturers to standardized specs / dimensions / etc.., where Tesla can be picking the quality and cost level among competitors, where there is plenty of volume generally available in the market, and no need for any customization for a manufacturer to bring the part to market in their vehicle.

Your "if" (if Tesla really hasn't finalized supply relationships), were it true, sounds like a months or quarters delay in meaningful car shipments. Something that might have been true a year ago ramping up for this month.

My fear level on this particular 'issue' is zero.

Not to be a wet blanket, but it is obvious that there are at least some supply issues as evidenced by the statement to the folks who have been invited to configure that ordering the cold weather package will delay delivery by a month. This is obviously a supplier issue.

 

[Paul Carter]

Not to be a wet blanket, but it is obvious that there are at least some supply issues as evidenced by the statement to the folks who have been invited to configure that ordering the cold weather package will delay delivery by a month. This is obviously a supplier issue.

May have been resolved. From Model X Configuration has begun! - Page 80

Bonnie: I have some encouraging news that the Design Studio no longer shows a delay for the Subzero Weather Package. Those of us who plan winter driving really appreciate your concern that may have made the difference. Tesla called today and wanted feedback on the importance of Subzero for my order. I told them to check what seat colors were available with the heated seats. If the Design Studio is accurate, hopefully the possible delay shown originally is not an issue anymore.

 

[mzpolo]

Question to the group...

What do we know about which regions will get deliveries before other regions? I swear I saw that North America deliveries would be first then other areas delayed for some reason.
Am I crazy? (well yes but...)
Looking at modelxtracker.com 25% or so of the production series X are from outside North America.

If I am not as crazy as it seems, what does this do to the delivery schedule? What does history (the S production/delivery schedule) tell us?

 

[Paul Carter]

Question to the group...

What do we know about which regions will get deliveries before other regions? I swear I saw that North America deliveries would be first then other areas delayed for some reason.
Am I crazy? (well yes but...)
Looking at modelxtracker.com 25% or so of the production series X are from outside North America.

If I am not as crazy as it seems, what does this do to the delivery schedule? What does history (the S production/delivery schedule) tell us?

I would guess this year would be US, then all other right hand drive in Q1 of 2016. Q3 for left hand drive.

 

[Lyon]

Quite a few people have done so over the years and in general the impression I got was that they went to the back of the line - so you'd move about 20 thousand spots back for the US -- add in the international orders I'd guess you'd lose something like 6 months.

That's not how it worked when I deferred from my Signature Model S reservation. I moved to a spot in line that was near when I placed my original reservation. It would be possible for a late Sig reservation to be near the back but an early one shouldn't be. Emailing or calling Tesla will clear it all up.

 

[schonelucht]

In another thread users calling Tesla to ask about possible test drives, they report receiving an answer that there will be demo cars in the stores by the end of the year, which is also when they expect all signatures to be delivered. So that would point to a production of roughly 1500 model X cars this year.

 

[BerTX]

That's not how it worked when I deferred from my Signature Model S reservation. I moved to a spot in line that was near when I placed my original reservation. It would be possible for a late Sig reservation to be near the back but an early one shouldn't be. Emailing or calling Tesla will clear it all up.

Interesting. If it matters, I still had an option for Signature when I reserved, but it closed a few days later. So if they do the same thing as you describe, then 8700-8800 is about as low as a deferred Sig would drop in the regular queue?

- - - Updated - - -

Question to the group...

What do we know about which regions will get deliveries before other regions? I swear I saw that North America deliveries would be first then other areas delayed for some reason.
Am I crazy? (well yes but...)
Looking at modelxtracker.com 25% or so of the production series X are from outside North America.

If I am not as crazy as it seems, what does this do to the delivery schedule? What does history (the S production/delivery schedule) tell us?

I think this is a big unknown that will influence the situation. This factor can't be related to past history, since it didn't exist for the MS release. We know that some non-US Signatures have been invited to configure their vehicles already, so I'm sure this will influence the deliveries seen in the US.

 

[Lyon]

Sounds about right. If you're curious, just email Tesla and ask where you'd be if you downgraded/deferred to regular production. They can certainly tell you without you deciding. \

[email protected] still seems to get an answer.

 

[akordz]

What if we approach this from the opposite way? Let's start at 50,000 cars being produced/sold for 2015....per q2 conf call. We know tesla delivered:

q1: 10,045
q2: 11,500
q3: 11,500 (em estimated about q3 to be similar to q2)
q4: estimated 11,500

Model s is therefore expected to have about 44,545 sales in 2015. Model x is the difference at 5455 cars for 2015.

This could be a fair estimate, assuming the estimates for q3 and q4 are somewhat accurate.

 

[Krugerrand]

This could be a fair estimate, assuming the estimates for q3 and q4 are somewhat accurate.

But that's not what Eds said. :biggrin:

 

[dirkhh]

What if we approach this from the opposite way? Let's start at 50,000 cars being produced/sold for 2015....per q2 conf call. We know tesla delivered:

q1: 10,045
q2: 11,500
q3: 11,500 (em estimated about q3 to be similar to q2)
q4: estimated 11,500

Model s is therefore expected to have about 44,545 sales in 2015. Model x is the difference at 5455 cars for 2015.

This could be a fair estimate, assuming the estimates for q3 and q4 are somewhat accurate.

5440 cars in Q4 sounds extremely aggressive. They'll have the ~12 founders cars in Q3. They asked 20-25 Sig holders to configure their cars so far, so that might be the first week of production, so let's they these ship by 10/9. 12 more weeks from there until the end of Q4.
25 + 50 +100 + 150 = 425 in October
200 + 250 + 300 + 300 = 1550 in November (Thanksgiving)
500 + 600 +700 +700 + 700 = 3200 in December (5 weeks, but keep in mind the holidays)
That is a scary ramp that assumes no shortages with suppliers, no issues with quality, everything going perfectly. And still gets us to only 4800 total. To add 650 more cars they'd have to ramp even more aggressively in late October / early November...

 

[Svenssons]

5440 cars in Q4 sounds extremely aggressive. They'll have the ~12 founders cars in Q3. They asked 20-25 Sig holders to configure their cars so far, so that might be the first week of production, so let's they these ship by 10/9. 12 more weeks from there until the end of Q4.
25 + 50 +100 + 150 = 425 in October
200 + 250 + 300 + 300 = 1550 in November (Thanksgiving)
500 + 600 +700 +700 + 700 = 3200 in December (5 weeks, but keep in mind the holidays)
That is a scary ramp that assumes no shortages with suppliers, no issues with quality, everything going perfectly. And still gets us to only 4800 total. To add 650 more cars they'd have to ramp even more aggressively in late October / early November...

12+425+1550+3200=5187

That is 253 cars short of 5440, about two days production at the end of the year.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

This could be a fair estimate, assuming the estimates for q3 and q4 are somewhat accurate.

But that's not what Eds said. :biggrin:

Yep, Eds said Tesla's plan would be to deliver less than 100 cars to customers by end of the year 2015. Deliver, of course. Not just build. His/her build figure was "few hundred" for 2015. He/she also said no deliveries to customers in Q3 (one can read the founders only news one way or the other).

I don't expect Eds' less than 100 cars delivered to be accurate, neither only few hundred Model Xs built. And if Tesla delivers 5000+ cars in 2015, then of course Eds' outlook would be massively wrong there.

If, OTOH, Tesla only were to build "few hundred" Model Xs in 2015, a lot of us would be surprised, myself included - and that would certainly put a new spin on Eds' story. I don't expect that.

 

[pvogel]

I spoke to a Tesla rep about getting a trade in valuation for my Prius v. He suggested my P1651 reservation should deliver in 'a few months' we spoke in the context of this year. But I don't know how much he knew.

 

[lucy]

I spoke to a Tesla rep about getting a trade in valuation for my Prius v. He suggested my P1651 reservation should deliver in 'a few months' we spoke in the context of this year. But I don't know how much he knew.

Wondering if those are calendar months or Elon months...

 

[AlMc]

I spoke to a Tesla rep about getting a trade in valuation for my Prius v. He suggested my P1651 reservation should deliver in 'a few months' we spoke in the context of this year. But I don't know how much he knew.

If I were TM, after Sigs, local production Xs get priority for 2015.....you being in Cali makes it possible

 

[Paul Carter]

If I were TM, after Sigs, local production Xs get priority for 2015.....you being in Cali makes it possible

Isn't that what Elon said in Norway, that Cali would be first?