Model X reveal impact on TSLA

[Yggdrasill]

I can't believe one person mentioned they sold stock over this issue. Get a grip.

When you've assumed the Model X would be utterly awesome, and the result isn't a significant step up from the Model S, that's reason to correct the positioning. I still have like 90% of my stock, so it's not as if I'm panicing.

I agree car reviews never mention seat configuration other than how many people can fit and how much leg room there is. However, we know that journalists read this forum so they will for sure pick up on the outrage and write about it. The good news is that the average person (specifically those not on TMC) will probably get nothing more than a chuckle out of the issue if they take notice at all.

Most car reviews that I read here in Norway covers how much space there is for cargo and what solutions for folding and such there are. Especially if something is unusual, it will be mentioned. I am 99% sure non-folding 2nd row would be mentioned in every review here.

For instance, the first review I could find of similar cars: Google Oversetter

"Space and practical utility is still in focus at Volvo. With all seats in use the trunk fits 314 liters, which increases to 692 liters with five seats in use and to 1868 liters with only front seats occupied."

"Reduced external dimensions notwithstanding, it has become even more spacious on the inside. The trunk is now accomodating from 295-, 770- or up to 1995 liters. Depending on whether you have seven, five or two seats in use. Access to the 3rd row of seats is astonishingly good in that the second row tilts all the way. By the way, the 3rd row folding is operated electrically. Fancy!"

 

[sub]

Seems like I've unintentionally touched some nerves here, wasn't my intention. Of course people have the choice to cancel their order, and there will be some that do IF the seat issue concerns turn out to be real. My point was I don't see it becoming a large number of people because most, though maybe less than 100% satisfied, are willing to look past the issue because it's Tesla and the bigger picture. I"M NOT JUDGING YOU IF YOU DECIDE TO DO PASS BECAUSE OF THE SEAT. I know Tesla hasn't been perfect, I've been on these forums daily for a long time. I've been very close on a couple of occasions to purchasing a Model S myself, it hasn't been easy holding off. Maybe I'm just hoping others are like me and are ok dealing with Tesla growing pains in order to help EV's move forward.

As we have seen lately, product announcements have moved the stock very little to not at all. If there are orders cancelled, the next person in line will gladly step into that order slot. What will move the stock is the financials. I do not see Tesla being demand constrained on the X at least through next year so a small percentage of people dropping out due to the seat is of no concern. I'm hoping Tesla exceeds everyone's expectations and we can move on from talking about seats.

I do believe Tesla has held back as much info as possible on the X in order to keep order flow up as high as possible on the S, I've been saying this for months. What better way to keep orders up on the S then to leave in question if the X actually has more functionality with cargo space/seating.

 

[MitchJi]

http://learnbonds.com/123273/tesla-...-soar-buyers-wait-for-design-studio-updated/

Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) Model X Pre-Order Flood [UPDATED]

September 12, 2015 By Michael Booker

Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) announced the Model X a long time ago, way back in February 2012, and since then the 100% electric vehicle has been generating pre-orders by the thousands. The Model X was originally scheduled to arrive in late 2013, but was postponed until April 2015, and will finally arrive later this month. Even with many delays, pre-orders for the EV have continued to flood Tesla Motors.

...Over the years since the Model X was first showed, the orders have seen some fluctuations, but since the time Tesla reassured the deliveries by September 29th, the orders have surged at a fast pace, says a report from Autoblog.


A member of the Tesla Motors Club, Paul Carter, has done some unofficial, but reasonably rigorous accounting for coming up with the number of pre-orders. From a lifetime average of about 24 per day, the orders have gone up to 37.2 per day. Based on this, the global number of pre-ordered vehicles has reached an estimated 26,892. Considering the high price and the fact that the final production version is still to be seen, this figure is pretty impressive.

 

[30seconds]

I'm so confused that some are worried that Tesla can't design a folding 2nd row. Even if they don't have it now, and it becomes an issue for demand, I am fairly confident that this is not a major hurdle to fix. This is the company that stuck a titanium shield on the underside when it became warranted, and upgraded the seats in the Model S, and put on parking sensors, and added AWD, and....

 

[SebastianR]

I'm so confused that some are worried that Tesla can't design a folding 2nd row. Even if they don't have it now, and it becomes an issue for demand, I am fairly confident that this is not a major hurdle to fix. This is the company that stuck a titanium shield on the underside when it became warranted, and upgraded the seats in the Model S, and put on parking sensors, and added AWD, and....

Thanks for that. I could not have said it better.

 

[32no]

I'm so confused that some are worried that Tesla can't design a folding 2nd row. Even if they don't have it now, and it becomes an issue for demand, I am fairly confident that this is not a major hurdle to fix. This is the company that stuck a titanium shield on the underside when it became warranted, and upgraded the seats in the Model S, and put on parking sensors, and added AWD, and....

Also, it's highly unlikely that it will become an issue for demand because based on the renderings, the space in the Model X will be quite cavernous. And if people are worried about bikes, skis, and snowboards, those can all be secured onto a bike rack or ski rack instead of putting wet and dirty objects in your $80k+ car. Honestly, sometimes some folks on TMC are a bit whiny, and the reactions to the Model X are a prime example.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

The new information provided to us today by Nigel shows that (1) the 2nd row slides forward and tilts and (2) states that the frunk can accommodate 2 golf bags.

While the 2nd row setup is not optimal, it's not a disaster either. In the near term, I believe that Tesla will still be able to sell all Model X they can produce, with little impact on TSLA.

 

[SBenson]

In case anyone here is not reading the Model X threads directly:
- There is no launch "event" on Sep 29
- Not clear when we will get to know everything about the car
- Not clear when Sig holders will start getting their deliveries

When will Tesla answer all of our questions about the X - Official launch speculation

 

[30seconds]

I'm starting to worry that tesla will not be able to deliver 50-55k vehicles this year, probably due to slower than expected ramp of the X. to me not having a launch event means that the company is trying to stay low-key and reduce near-term demand for the X vs. the S.

 

[Newb]

I'm starting to worry that tesla will not be able to deliver 50-55k vehicles this year, probably due to slower than expected ramp of the X. to me not having a launch event means that the company is trying to stay low-key and reduce near-term demand for the X vs. the S.

same here. It looks like they're either not 100% ready to produce the very final version of the X (except for the Founder's experimental cars which will be delivered end of September), or they were dissatisfied with the solution provided by the supplier (Johnson C.?) and are still waiting for the alternative solution to be ready for mass-production. It might well be that they had to ask for a redesign of the 2nd row seat solution more than once and then they were unlucky with the specific supplier, too, and had to go back to the less satisfying solution, in order to stay on track for Q4 deliveries. And now they might contemplate waiting another month or so for a completely new 2nd row seat solution to be ready for the Signature cars production after the negative feedback on this less satisfying solution we've seen mirroring on the X subforums. Remember that Elon doesn't care about share price that much but rather cares about perfect products and satisfied customers (which I like despite being the shareholder and not the customer (yet)).

Just want to remind ourselves about what Elon said during Q2 earnings call (which was only six weeks ago, btw!):

"I don't want to sort of name specific suppliers, but our biggest challenges are with the second row seat, which is, it's an amazing seat, like a sculptural work of art, but a very tricky thing to get right. The falcon-wing door actually seems to probably not be a critical path item. There are some interior components, interior trim that are possibly on a critical path. But it's always hard to say exactly what lies in a critical path because it tends - these things tend to play schedule leapfrog and it's kind of a set of constraints that one day is this constraint, then the next day it's another constraint. The pace of progress is really dependent on which supplier is the slowest and least lucky. So, if a supplier has unexpected challenges which can range from force majeure to simply having to redo a design because the initial design was wrong. [...]"

The more I read in the X subforums, the more I think they still haven't solved the second row seat challenge and that will impact on X production ramp this year more than I hoped it would.

 

[austinEV]

I'm starting to worry that tesla will not be able to deliver 50-55k vehicles this year, probably due to slower than expected ramp of the X. to me not having a launch event means that the company is trying to stay low-key and reduce near-term demand for the X vs. the S.

I think it is very likely they will miss their target. They did last year too and the world didn't end. I think this is another example of Elon setting a public goal for the factory and it is their job to get as close as possible, rather than Elon sandbagging with an achievable goal. Clearly slightly delayed revenue is not the issue, but what the market will think of the miss.

 

[eloder]

I think it is very likely they will miss their target. They did last year too and the world didn't end. I think this is another example of Elon setting a public goal for the factory and it is their job to get as close as possible, rather than Elon sandbagging with an achievable goal. Clearly slightly delayed revenue is not the issue, but what the market will think of the miss.

I imagine the miss is already priced in, unless you're talking about going sub-50k. If they do hit on the low end of 50k, there will still be a drop but I doubt a substantial one. I think people will be more concerned if revenue/margins/etc. are lower than expected as well as short-term forecasts for Q1 2016.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

I imagine the miss is already priced in, unless you're talking about going sub-50k. If they do hit on the low end of 50k, there will still be a drop but I doubt a substantial one. I think people will be more concerned if revenue/margins/etc. are lower than expected as well as short-term forecasts for Q1 2016.

I don't think a miss is priced in right now, because my news feeds have been overflowing with BEV competitor news about vaporware from Audi and Porsche. The media is preoccupied with so-called "Tesla killers", and I see no indication that the mainstream has picked up on possible trouble in the Model X launch and ramp up for Q4 of this year.

 

[TSLAopt]

In case anyone here is not reading the Model X threads directly:
- There is no launch "event" on Sep 29
- Not clear when we will get to know everything about the car
- Not clear when Sig holders will start getting their deliveries

When will Tesla answer all of our questions about the X - Official launch speculation

This is the thing, Elon has stated in the past that they are anti-selling the model X. They have so many orders of the model X They don't want to do anything that would encourage a faster rate of reservations they already are getting until their production is ramped.

 

[Skotty]

Well, if there is one good thing about the whole 2nd row not folding flat thing, it's that people aren't currently complaining about cup holders. LOL

 

[anticitizen13.7]

For those not watching the Model X forum closely, there were some developments today in this thread: http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...torage-space-and-2nd-row-seats!-(9-15)/page53

Forum member AnOutsider received a call from Tesla asking for a decision on finalization:

Well, I guess the true 3 options are Keep, Downgrade or Cancel. If I were to downgrade I would've ended up at the beginning of the production queue. I was told that production vehicles wouldn't arrive until 2016. Then again, I was also told that the seats do fold and when I challenged was then told it was a mistake, so sounds like Tesla still doesn't even know what's going on internally.

TMC does have a comprehensive estimate tally on reservations: http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/7535-Model-X-Tally/page158

As of last week (ending 9/11/2015), the tally for Signature Series was as follows:

USA: 1,356 units
Canada: 71 units
EU: 592 units
Total: 2,019 units

If the information AnOutsider received is accurate, this places a high probability ceiling on the number of Model X that will be delivered in 2015, and that ceiling is about 2k units.

In 1H 2015, Tesla delivered approximately 21,500 Model S.

The Q3 2015 delivery figures are going to be an important indicator of the ramp up on the new Line 2. We are going to need to see a significant jump in production and delivery to meet 50k guidance. 55k looks to be a real challenge.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

100% a guess.

Based on comments from reservation holders, and the comments from a number of people who have taken the Model X for a test drive, many Signature reservation holders have already been shown the final specifications for the Model X, or were offered the opportunity to see it, and many have probably been offered the opportunity to take it for a test drive. Those who have seen it, or who know the final specifications, were obligated to sign a non disclosure agreement.

If Tesla lowers guidance for Model X deliveries in 2015, Tesla will significantly increase guidance for 2016.

The total addressable market for the Model X is significantly larger than the total addressable market for the Model S.

 

[Lump]

100% a guess.

Based on comments from reservation holders, and the comments from a number of people who have taken the Model X for a test drive, many Signature reservation holders have already been shown the final specifications for the Model X, or were offered the opportunity to see it, and many have probably been offered the opportunity to take it for a test drive. Those who have seen it, or who know the final specifications, were obligated to sign a non disclosure agreement.

If Tesla lowers guidance for Model X deliveries in 2015, Tesla will significantly increase guidance for 2016.

The total addressable market for the Model X is significantly larger than the total addressable market for the Model S.

Complete opposite of what I am seeing in TMC.

Zero Model X test drives & from what I am seeing many early Sig X holders aren't very happy with the info that they have been provided, some have canceled & some are on hold.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Even founders aren't going to get to drive a Model X until September 29, let alone Signature holders. Personally, I don't think Tesla will deliver more than 1,000 Model X this year. The 50,000 yearly total number is very much in jeopardy. Tesla has been accumulating lots of bad will with this drip drip of sometimes conflicting information and not addressing the lack of foldable second row seats. Why is Elon doing this, other than being an ass? I suspect the answer has to do with things not being nearly ready enough in Model X land.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

100% a guess.

Based on comments from reservation holders, and the comments from a number of people who have taken the Model X for a test drive, many Signature reservation holders have already been shown the final specifications for the Model X, or were offered the opportunity to see it, and many have probably been offered the opportunity to take it for a test drive. Those who have seen it, or who know the final specifications, were obligated to sign a non disclosure agreement.

Comments from Signature Series reservation holders in the Model X forum suggest that this is not the case. Bonnie (Reservation #2) has as far as I know not received any information on the interior cargo dimensions of Model X. AnOutsider was asked today to either confirm, delay, or cancel, even though Tesla offered no additional information about the vehicle. Nigel asked Tesla to put his reservation on hold, pending availability of additional specifications.

I've been monitoring activity pretty closely via Tapatalk over the past week. The collective sentiment is "fog", as in confusion and unable to see.

Even founders aren't going to get to drive a Model X until September 29, let alone Signature holders. Personally, I don't think Tesla will deliver more than 1,000 Model X this year. The 50,000 yearly total number is very much in jeopardy. Tesla has been accumulating lots of bad will with this drip drip of sometimes conflicting information and not addressing the lack of foldable second row seats. Why is Elon doing this, other than being an ass? I suspect the answer has to do with things not being nearly ready enough in Model X land.

I start with these premises:
(1) Elon and Tesla are well intentioned
(2) Tesla has interest in maintaining Model S demand until Model X can ramp up
(3) Tesla and SpaceX are time consuming
(4) Shareholders demand results
(5) Model 3 needs to be the new priority

My suspicion is that Elon has been overloaded. On the Tesla end, building Line 2 and continuing Gigafactory construction has kept the company busy. Meanwhile, Model X has had last-minute supplier problems (I believe the gist of what "Eds" wrote about suppliers is generally true, even if the specifics of his claims were incorrect). On the SpaceX end, Elon has had to deal with the fallout from the Falcon 9 accident (bad struts from a supplier... ironically), Dragon2 manned capsule development, and Falcon Heavy development.

With Model X nearly 2 years late, shareholders are demanding results, and Tesla promised a Q3 delivery, so they are rushing to make it happen. Plus Tesla needs to clear the decks so that full effort can be made on getting Model 3 to market.

Elon may be the real-life Tony Stark, but no human has infinite resources. People get tired when they have too much to do. Decision making becomes impaired when people are tired.