Model X sales versus other large luxury SUV's

[AnxietyRanger]

We also finally added a sufficient number of Model X cars to our test drive and display fleet because our stores had been operating with far short of what was needed and, in some cases, none at all. There appears to be substantial untapped sales potential for Model X. It should also be noted that production quality and field reliability of the Model X, for which Tesla has been fairly criticized, have improved dramatically. It is now rare for a newly produced Model X to have initial quality problems.

I think that 'splaining is a bit beside the point.

While I agree there certainly is room to grow sales, especially with the folding seat options finding new audiences, it is hard to get over the weirdmobile form-factor. Those doors do cut sales, that I believe is a fact.

Model X occupies a vastly larger market (the large premium SUV) than Model S (the large premium sedan), yet is barely matching Model S sales...

 

[tescroft]

I also think falcon wings are slowing down sales of the X. Some people don't like the attention the car gets when they're open. And they've some disadvantages in parking garages. The advantages are not so obvious and hard to sell (e.g. the umbrella use case, you can stand in the dry when it rains).

 

[bonaire]

One has to imagine that this market is strong because of the very low cost on fuel. Bump it back up to 4.50/gallon and I bet the overall numbers move down EXCEPT for MX.

Depends on the mileage driven. Some owners of cars or SUVs have a limited range and don't do more than 10-12k miles a year but want size. Others do 100 miles a day, breaking 20k miles a year easily. Gas costs only affect those who have a lot of miles. Also, to keep costs down, a lot of car/SUV buyers purchase used vehicles and avoid possibly $40k of depreciation - making the gas/BEV compare differ greatly. I knew an old friend who bought a new BMW 740iL ($95k) and one of our other employees buying a used version of the same for $25k a few years later. The former was a sales guy. The latter was a guy who made due with a far lower salary.

 

[Reciprocity]

I think that 'splaining is a bit beside the point.

While I agree there certainly is room to grow sales, especially with the folding seat options finding new audiences, it is hard to get over the weirdmobile form-factor. Those doors do cut sales, that I believe is a fact.

Model X occupies a vastly larger market (the large premium SUV) than Model S (the large premium sedan), yet is barely matching Model S sales...

Production Constrained until recently, and they sell as many as the can physically make. They cant really make that many more unless they make less Model S.

 

[Electroman]

I also think falcon wings are slowing down sales of the X

Amen. I would have jumped on one without those crazy doors, and if it is a bit cheaper..

 

[Reciprocity]

Amen. I would have jumped on one without those crazy doors, and if it is a bit cheaper..

It is a bit cheaper now... I have one and the doors are awesome. My kids love them. Everyone who sees them wants to take a picture with the car. I get that its a bit gimmicky and even worse for me because I have a 5 seater. But they are far from lame. Because they get so far out of the way, they are very nice with kids, getting in and out of car seats. Much better then a minivan where you gotta duck your child in under the door jam. It just completely open and the doors act like an umbrella.

The diversity in the segment is what is making it hard for model X to dominate, but there is no reason that it cannot eclipse the X5 now that production is fully up to speed. Its just to hard to compare to an Escalade or a Range Rover. Certainly compares better with Porsche/Audi and X5/X6. I see them all over the place now, almost as much as Model S. I expect market share to double over the next 12 months.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

Production Constrained until recently, and they sell as many as the can physically make. They cant really make that many more unless they make less Model S.

I don't believe Model X has been production constrained for several months now. IMO it is just not as appealing as Model S, relative to its market.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

It is a bit cheaper now... I have one and the doors are awesome. My kids love them. Everyone who sees them wants to take a picture with the car. I get that its a bit gimmicky and even worse for me because I have a 5 seater.

I have a six-seater where the doors are supposed to make at least some sense as there is a third row, however the benefit in accessing the third row is so small in the production version (the early prototype Model X at least had a big FWD opening) that only reason I can think of it ease of access for baby seats for those who need that. And they get some attention, sure.

Beyond that there really is no justification for them. The list of issues is long: issues in garages, no roof racks, limited headroom in the second-row middle due to the mechanism, slow opening and closing, delays in Model X making and versatility due to FWD design forcing their hand in rear seating... and they're weird.

I get it. Some like weird, I chose Model X due to weird. I like it. But it is not a mainstream car in the way Model S is a mainstream car. Model X is a gimmick - it is a weirdmobile. Sure it sells some to even people who'd rather have normal doors, because there is a lack of BEV SUV choices, but I'm betting a normal doored Model X would sell more if there were both choices...

 

[Electroman]

It is the price. over a $100k prices out a lot of BMW and Mercedes prospects. If they can bring the base 100 kWh to around $80k pre tax-credit, it will beat all those ICE models hands down.

 

[tescroft]

It is the price. over a $100k prices out a lot of BMW and Mercedes prospects. If they can bring the base 100 kWh to around $80k pre tax-credit, it will beat all those ICE models hands down.

The X isn't more expensive than a similar equipped german full size SUV. It is more expensive than base models though.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

It is the price. over a $100k prices out a lot of BMW and Mercedes prospects. If they can bring the base 100 kWh to around $80k pre tax-credit, it will beat all those ICE models hands down.

I'm pretty sure the falcon wings are one reason why it is more expensive...

 

[EinSV]

It is the price. over a $100k prices out a lot of BMW and Mercedes prospects. If they can bring the base 100 kWh to around $80k pre tax-credit, it will beat all those ICE models hands down.

I agree.

Almost every SUV on the list that has outsold the X in 2017 has a base price that is significantly cheaper, which opens up the market significantly. In fact, many of these include models that are priced more like the Model Y will be than the X.

Here is the base Model X price compared to lowest base MSRP for the SUVs on the list that have outsold the X YTD:

Mercedes GL $40,050 (assuming GLC SUV is included)
Volvo XC90 $45,750
BMW X5 $56,600
Infiniti QX80 $63,850
Cadillac Escalade $73,395
Model X $79,500
Land Rover Range Rover $85,650

The only ones on this list with a base model comparably priced to the X are the Range Rover and Escalade, and the Model X is almost head-to-head with both of these (Model X 10595 YTD, Range Rover 11017, Escalade 11905).

That's not bad at all for a vehicle that is only in its second year of production, and had a rocky start at the beginning of last year.

 

[nikeykid]

It is the price. over a $100k prices out a lot of BMW and Mercedes prospects. If they can bring the base 100 kWh to around $80k pre tax-credit, it will beat all those ICE models hands down.

model Y will drive the stake into ICE SUV's hearts. X is just the appetizer. that is already selling so well despite the fact that it is 20% more expensive, with the controversial doors, with the production issues, etc... is a great sign.

 

[Reciprocity]

I agree.

Almost every SUV on the list that has outsold the X in 2017 has a base price that is significantly cheaper, which opens up the market significantly. In fact, many of these include models that are priced more like the Model Y will be than the X.

Here is the base Model X price compared to lowest base MSRP for the SUVs on the list that have outsold the X YTD:

Mercedes GL $40,050 (assuming GLC SUV is included)
Volvo XC90 $45,750
BMW X5 $56,600
Infiniti QX80 $63,850
Cadillac Escalade $73,395
Model X $79,500
Land Rover Range Rover $85,650

The only ones on this list with a base model comparably priced to the X are the Range Rover and Escalade, and the Model X is almost head-to-head with both of these (Model X 10595 YTD, Range Rover 11017, Escalade 11905).

That's not bad at all for a vehicle that is only in its second year of production, and had a rocky start at the beginning of last year.

It's a lot of work but if you configure those other SUVs with similar config as the base model X, the X is much more competitive. Certainly once you factor in fuel cost. In some cases those base vehicles are very under powered v6 and none of the features the base x has. Also, none of them have autopilot as an option, just can't get it.

 

[Electroman]

model Y will drive the stake into ICE SUV's hearts

Y would have been a better choice than 3 at this stage of Tesla.

 

[Electroman]

I agree.

Almost every SUV on the list that has outsold the X in 2017 has a base price that is significantly cheaper, which opens up the market significantly. In fact, many of these include models that are priced more like the Model Y will be than the X.

Here is the base Model X price compared to lowest base MSRP for the SUVs on the list that have outsold the X YTD:

Mercedes GL $40,050 (assuming GLC SUV is included)
Volvo XC90 $45,750
BMW X5 $56,600
Infiniti QX80 $63,850
Cadillac Escalade $73,395
Model X $79,500
Land Rover Range Rover $85,650

The only ones on this list with a base model comparably priced to the X are the Range Rover and Escalade, and the Model X is almost head-to-head with both of these (Model X 10595 YTD, Range Rover 11017, Escalade 11905).

That's not bad at all for a vehicle that is only in its second year of production, and had a rocky start at the beginning of last year.

It is not fair to compare 75kWh to any ICE SUV. 75 kWh has a piddly range that makes long distance travel quite strenuous. A fair comparison is the 300 mile 100 kWh - which starts at $100k.

 

[EinSV]

It's a lot of work but if you configure those other SUVs with similar config as the base model X, the X is much more competitive. Certainly once you factor in fuel cost. In some cases those base vehicles are very under powered v6 and none of the features the base x has. Also, none of them have autopilot as an option, just can't get it.

I agree with that. I am just making the point that far more people are able and willing to pay $40-$50K for a vehicle than $80K as a starting point, regardless of how much better the $80K car is.

 

[Saghost]

It is not fair to compare 75kWh to any ICE SUV. 75 kWh has a piddly range that makes long distance travel quite strenuous. A fair comparison is the 300 mile 100 kWh - which starts at $100k.

As someone who has driven an X75D on a few multi-thousand mile roadtrips, I disagree.

There have only been a couple occasions I really wished for more range, and each new supercharger makes the situation better.

Most of the time I'm not even waiting for the car on roadtrips - it has to wait for me instead.

 

[tescroft]

Production Constrained until recently, and they sell as many as the can physically make. They cant really make that many more unless they make less Model S.

I really doubt that. Go to Tesla.com, delivery time for a new build-to-order Model X is 4-5 weeks. This looks more like an empty queue.

Nevertheless, X sales are far from bad so far. They're actually very good considering the price, the habits of customers and the newcomer state of Tesla and EVs. They outsell other very popular makes such as Porsche and Land Rover. But they are not as good as they could and should be in this segment. If the X is the best car Tesla will ever build (as stated several times), they should really think about why the X sells worse than an outdated X5, a GLE or even a Volvo XC90. Strange outdated mobiles such as an Infiniti QX80 sell better than the X in the US?

You also have to consider, the X currently benefits from its USPs currently.
- It is the only EV-SUV
- it is the only EV with a tow hitch
- it is the only EV with a good charging network.

There is competition coming over the next years, Jaguar I-Pace, may be some germans in the next decade (IQ, eTron-Q5) and Model Y. I think this will hurt X sales. Could it be that X sales already peak this year?

Let's see if the recent price cut and added value results in a sales boost this year.

 

[Reciprocity]

Go to Tesla.com, delivery time for a new build-to-order Model X is 4-5 weeks. This looks more like an empty queue.

Yes, model X is finally in full production as of about the last couple of quarters. My local sales and service center just received their first show room model X just over a month ago and their first loaner Xs, about 10 of them. Before that, they had 0. This is not a tiny Tesla area either, it's north Chicago suburbs which is like the Orange county of so Cal for Chicago.

Also that time will change based on where you are in the quarter, Tesla builds first for orders from out side the US early in the quarter, then east coast US, then West coast US. That way all the cars are delivered by quarters end. Production is still constrained because they can only make 2000 S/X a week. That is the maximum. Maybe now that model X is more mature they can make as many X as S in the same time so the mix can fluctuate based on demand. Recently a lot more Xs and less Ss for example. This was more then likely Tesla catching up to demand, but they can't keep that balancing acct up because S still has high demand as well. The question is, can they get to something like 2400 cars a week sustained out put and deliver them all, not just a buck of inventory/loaners.

Demand is going to Spike with tax credits running out over the next 12 months. I assume Tesla will stuff the inventory in anticipation. They have already simplified the options and include more things in the base.