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Model X Timeline - From Prototype to Production

Discussion in 'Model X: Ordering, Production, Delivery' started by bonnie, Mar 7, 2013.

  1. Discoducky

    Discoducky Active Member

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    Highly doubt the X will need a new line for technical or engineering reasons other than 'we are making too damn many S's' or another way to say it is 'we've gone to Plaid, we can't slow down!!!'. So logistically, it might be an issue, but I'd bet they will run the line hot until the demand is satiated in EU and Japan then take over parts of the line as needed to make X parts and iterate. The robots can switch duties on a dime, switch out heads and do very different tasks so I don't expect they would take a throughput hit to iterating on X during S production to a large extent.

    One reason that I see an AWD (aka front motor S) due out prior to showing the Beta X is that they will want to get a good understanding of how the new AWD assembly is implemented. Reason being is that with the Beta they will most likely start stating some technical details of the car beyond what has already been stated. These numbers won't be possible without a good working knowledge of how the AWD drive function will be implemented.

    One piece of the puzzle that is very different for X will be the assembly of the Falcon doors which will most likely require at least one more station (two robots), maybe not immediately, but to keep up throughput, and with all the space they have, to keep quality high, iterate quickly...yata yata, it just makes sense. I could see Beta X's all making it down the line without any defects and then spending days trying to get those doors working properly. At TESLIVE I had a chance to study the current design/implementation of those doors and it looks to be a daunting challenge to not only get them functioning properly, make them safe under all conditions, air bags, two different actuating windows and four hydraulic hinges, but thing has got to work well. Not like the current handles well either. These doors are going to weigh quite a bit (100+ lbs) and there won't be any forgiveness if one fails or misbehaves in any way, shape or form. They must be flawless.

    Some has said that the chassis might have different dimentions and this is most likely the case to establish an overall greater footprint, but I could see the X use the same chassis and still garner more space due to learnings with the current chassis and just moving the axels further forward and backwards to get that bigger footprint. TM knows they can pass the crash tests with the AWD (NOTE: They must already being doing this now to make the timelines) so they can take a bit of risk and push the envelope a bit. Not to mention the bigger tires gives them a bit more room on the Y-axis as well to improve upon cubic feet.

    Ok, now I'm rambling...
     
  2. AlMc

    AlMc 'Senior Moments' member

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    No problem with rambling...I do it all the time. While I would like to see an AWD S before the X I doubt we will see it in production before production of the X. I would not be surprised if they have built a few AWD S vehicles but I believe the company has said too often that their stated goal runs: Roadster, S, then X on same platform, then an 'E' followed by an EX on that same smaller platform.
    Given where I live I would have preferred an AWD S over the RWD one I have. I think they may find several distressed S owners if they went with an S AWD before the X. I can see an AWD S being produced in 2015 after the initial reservations for the X are filled OR if TM finds that the market for the X was smaller (doubtful) than they expected.
     
  3. gg_got_a_tesla

    gg_got_a_tesla Model S: VIN P65513, Model 3 Res Holder

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    Yes, an AWD S ahead of the X launch may cannibalize some X sales. Don't think it's bad one way or the other for Tesla.

    But, when the AWD S does come out, I'm sure some early adopters of the S will trade in for that, whether the X is in the picture for them or not. This has happened a little with the P85+ S. All good for Tesla and for the secondary S market too.
     
  4. wycolo

    wycolo Active Member

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    So much easier for TM to produce the AWD S as soon as they settle on a produceable kit. Get it out there into daily testing & driving by civilians. X customers will likely view this not so much as a delay but as a necessary reassuring confirmation of the AWD X viability.
    --
     
  5. ModelS8794

    ModelS8794 Member

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    If Tesla finds they are still production constrained over the next 12 months, I think they would conclude there is very little upside to releasing an AWD MS prior to the MX launch. At best they will see increased demand for MS given the added feature, which would leave them even more production constrained. At worst the Model S demand increase will cannibalize much of the pent up MX reservation list, since many of those customers are looking for AWD specifically and that's why they are holding off on an order thus far.

    Why risk exposing your new product to the added uncertainty of reduced demand, in exchange for increasing demand for a proven product that already has too much demand to handle?

    edit: aaaand then i look one post up and find I am completely derivative. Sigh, nothing that can be said hasn't already! LOL
     
  6. wycolo

    wycolo Active Member

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    Some need the X for the cargo, others settle for all that much car just to get the AWD. But an AWD MS is what they really need and want. By the time it happens they count on improved battery capacity to counteract the AWD energy surcharge. Remember, Subaru stayed small-bodied all thru their AWD development. There will be plenty of demand for RWD X cars.
    --
     
  7. Paul Carter

    Paul Carter Active Member

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    From Nov 5's Third Quarter 2013 Shareholder Letter...

    :)
     
  8. Paul Carter

    Paul Carter Active Member

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    After hearing the CC so far, maybe by accelerate they meant its starting. :crying: "Full" production in Q2 2015 with a few in 2014. Looks like Bonnie will get a birthday present and perhaps I'll have a great 2014 boxing day?
     
  9. Discoducky

    Discoducky Active Member

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    This time next year will be fun! But I'll be happy driving the S until the X arrives :)
     
  10. gg_got_a_tesla

    gg_got_a_tesla Model S: VIN P65513, Model 3 Res Holder

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    I'm making a sales pitch to the husband of an ex-coworker - who's completely sold on Tesla courtesy yours truly - tomorrow regarding Tesla in general and the X in particular (to replace their aging SUV).

    Wish me luck! Hope the tally ticks over further soon.
     
  11. mikevbf

    mikevbf Member

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    I think Elon said somewhere in the cc (or maybe it was a recent interview) that they would do the last tweaks on the Model X's shape in the next 2-3 months. I wonder how much after that it will be before we get the Model X design studio/configuration thingy?
     
  12. hileyms

    hileyms Member

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    I contacted the UK Sales person earlier in the week about availability and the response I got was (not a lot):-

    Model X is set for US release in 2014 so we will be seeing more information about this shortly.
     
  13. hileyms

    hileyms Member

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    Franz von Holzhausen made the following comment to Worldcarfan web site:- the company is putting the finishing touches on the Model X.
    Hopefully we will see some specific info from Telsa on this soon.
     
  14. Ocelot

    Ocelot Member

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    as someone else on the forum said (i cannot remember where) the Detroit Auto Show would be a good place to unveil the latest 'x'. timing is mid-january and would generate some buzz. Alternatively so you do not get "lost in the crowd of unveilings" it would be cool if they announced something the week prior or so with a special event.

    fromt the carsdirect site...

    "Detroit Auto Show
    The Detroit Auto Show is one of the largest in the US. It takes place in the middle of January each year, spread over a week, with a day for the media, a day for industry, a day for charities and then several days devoted to public showing. You can expect to see vehicle debuts. Auto personnel from companies around the world are at this show to bring you all the information you could need or want"
     
  15. anticitizen13.7

    anticitizen13.7 Enemy of the Status Quo

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    I am really eXcited about Model X, because I want to see how much user feedback from the Model S made it to the X design.

    Specifically, the S needed more storage inside (partially addressed by the center console inserts). As the X is looking to be the ultimate "utility" automobile, I hope that it has plenty of cup holders for kids sitting in the rear seats.
     
  16. MikeL

    MikeL some guy

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    anticitizen - I'm antifood&drinkinmynewModel X! While I'm at it, NO Kids!!:biggrin:

    But seriously, cupholders is aiming about as low as my request for a decent spot to put a front license plate. I will be amazed if they didn't act on the outcry over lack of cupholders in the Model S. & I remember reading some humorous stuff about putting cupholders in the Falconwing Doors! Yes, we need cupholders BUT,

    I'm hoping for
    weather and altitude sensitive nav/predictive range
    side view cameras, no mirrors
    Negligible vampire draw
    New X-only colors
    Cool hitch/rack arrangement
    Higher energy density battery - more power and/or less weight
    Oh, and a decent spot to put a front license plate :wink: Probably won't get that one.

    Those are just what I could think of off hand, point is tech tech tech! :biggrin: No Food or Drink!! ML
     
  17. bonnie

    bonnie Oil is for sissies.

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    I give it two weeks, tops. First you'll allow bottled water. And then it will be allllll over.
     
  18. RDoc

    RDoc S85D

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    Welcome back Bonnie!!!

    And you're quite correct, once you let anyone under 21 in your car, plan on plastic dinosaurs under the brake pedal and ice cream covering at least 40% of the back seats. (Not that it isn't a great thing!)
     
  19. MikeL

    MikeL some guy

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    #139 MikeL, Dec 7, 2013
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2013
    I suppose I will need the "black coffee" colored interior option. Sooner or later that's what I'll have. :eek:
    (Along w all that cool new tech)

    new thread maybe: "Model X timeline - factory fresh to trash mobile"
     
  20. bonnie

    bonnie Oil is for sissies.

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    Okay, I'll revise my estimate from 'two weeks after to taking delivery' to 'just one post giving MikeL a nudge'. Geez, you're easy!

    A 'latte' interior option would be good. That's what I need. Sooner. Not later.
     

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