But don't those fatalities numbers include if there was a fatality outside the vehicle. So if a Model X runs over a pedestrian and kills them it would be included in the count. So being bigger could actually make it worse. (More likely to cause a fatality in a VRU or other vehicle.)
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Model Y - Fatality - NHTSA FARS Data Just Released for 2021
- Thread starter alsetyledom280
- Start date
The report is not detailed enough. For the BMW X7 there were only 3 fatalities. But it doesn't show the details.
The numbers involved are so small it is impossible to draw any relevant conclusion about comparisons. Not even remotely statistically significant, much less meaningful in the real world. At this point it's just noise.
You might well be able to conclude that all of these cars are way safer than say a 1962 Chevy Impala, but that's about it.
You might well be able to conclude that all of these cars are way safer than say a 1962 Chevy Impala, but that's about it.
I couldn't quickly figure out how to see who died, Tesla Driver, Tesla Passenger, Pedestrian, Other Vehicle Driver, Other Vehicle Passenger. Is it possible with this data set? If so how?
As to why you might not see better total fatality numbers for Tesla vehicles a few thoughts come immediately to mind.
It has long been known that heavier vehicles are more likely to injure pedestrians and occupants of other vehicles than lighter vehicles.
I believe it has also long been known that faster cars are more likely to be involved in accidents than slower cars. Probably partly because of who chooses to get a fast car, and partly because of how vehicle capabilities alter the odds of a crash for any given driver.
Tesla sells relatively heavy, relatively fast vehicles, both of which could push total fatality numbers up. Tesla vehicles also do a better job protecting occupants than most vehicles, which would tend to push Tesla occupant injuries down.
As to why you might not see better total fatality numbers for Tesla vehicles a few thoughts come immediately to mind.
It has long been known that heavier vehicles are more likely to injure pedestrians and occupants of other vehicles than lighter vehicles.
I believe it has also long been known that faster cars are more likely to be involved in accidents than slower cars. Probably partly because of who chooses to get a fast car, and partly because of how vehicle capabilities alter the odds of a crash for any given driver.
Tesla sells relatively heavy, relatively fast vehicles, both of which could push total fatality numbers up. Tesla vehicles also do a better job protecting occupants than most vehicles, which would tend to push Tesla occupant injuries down.
The gov website query tool does not provide many details. But underlying raw data (FARS) has much more details than any one would imagine. It does provided more than any questions asked here. It includes fatality of Tesla drivers, passengers and many more details, if you ever read a police report, you have all of that in that one line of raw FARS data (except for name and dob). It is sobering to read though as each line has at least 1 fatality and very sad story involved.
As for model X and bmw X7, same is true for Lexus 570/600, these are very low volume cars, 3 or 4 fatality a year means a lot statistically per car exposure. That is one of reason IIHS use 3 year data to produce fatality by model/make report. Model 3 stat would be interesting.
What is puzzled for me is model y has US sales between 160k to 200k sales in 2021, and has 12 fatal accidents involved in 2021 (read: the 12 is not exact Tesla model y driver or passenger fatality, you have to look into raw data to get that number). While Lexus RX 350 has a confirmed sales of 115k for US 2021 sales and has 5 fatal accident involved in 2021. So per car exposure, Lexus RX appears as safe as model y, if not slightly safer. Same is true for Volvo XC90, bmw x5, mb gle or Audi Q7. So you get an overall picture.
With AP and FSD, I would expect Tesla model y fatality stat is solid and out of chart vs German luxury SUV, but I don't see that trend (only 1 year in 2021) so far from gov raw data.
Tesla's own safety quarterly report is not 3rd party verified and does not compare its own car vs other specific make/model. If I were a scientist, I would say I can not produce peer reviewed findings for their claim, understand their claim still holds some value.
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Tesla model y used to be 65k+ in 2022. So in my mind it is in similar category of XC90, X5, GLE, or RX 350. Weight wise, model y could be a little lighter than German mid size luxury SUV, the trunk space is probably similar as well.
As for car weight, it is absolutely a factor. But there is a fine line, if you check out Ford expedition for example from IIHS stat, it is not necessarily safer from fatality perspective as it causes more fatality of other cars and it can have ramifications for you if it were your fault.
Cost has zero to do with vehicle class, or you would put corvettes in the same class as SUVs.
Ok I see your point. I am talking about luxury mid size suv with reasonable trunk space and 5 seats. I am guessing bulk of folks who look into XC90, GLE, X5 or RX 350 are potential buyers for model y too. And model y now is a lot more affordable vs 65k+ a few months bacck. Model y is a very solid car, but it may not be as safe as German mid size luxury suv from fatality stat and this is what puzzles me. Perception or impression is one thing, but data normally tells the truth (it is just we don't fully understand why, and up to 200k units of 2021 model y on road in US is a massive data set, it is about 2 billions of miles driven out this model y corhort).
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You keep saying this, but the difference of 5 vs 12 in a sample size of a couple hundred thousand is basically noise, from a statistical point of view. If one vehicle had 1 fatality and another one had 2 in 200 thousand, you could rightly say one vehicle had 100% more fatalities than the other, but it would be irrelevant in actual terms.
You can draw whatever conclusion you personally want to, but to keep making statments that one is more or less safe than the other based on fatality numbers like 5 vs 12 is doing what people always do with statistics, which is bend them to say whatever point they are trying to make.
If you are interested in VRU safety you should look at some of the tests directly related to that. Someone put together a video with snippets from lots of different brands:
Tesla is the only one that scored 98%... (Someone on the forum keeps saying that it is easy to pass these tests, as you know the criteria in advance, but all of the other manufacturers failing so many of the tests would either seem to say that isn't true, or those other OEMs just don't care about VRU safety.)
And Elon has said that they have fixed the remaining 2%:
It will be interested to see the results the next time they test a Tesla.
Tesla is the only one that scored 98%... (Someone on the forum keeps saying that it is easy to pass these tests, as you know the criteria in advance, but all of the other manufacturers failing so many of the tests would either seem to say that isn't true, or those other OEMs just don't care about VRU safety.)
And Elon has said that they have fixed the remaining 2%:
It will be interested to see the results the next time they test a Tesla.
I am not statistician by all means. I just see trend from raw data. That is all I have. I don't see gov raw data supporting Tesla model y is much safer vs similar weight/class suv. That is my point. Gov raw data also does not say model y is bad either. Fatality by make/model is serious undertaking, we can leave it to IIHS to publish its latest report from 2021 raw data. Before that publication is made available to public by this summer, I have a hunch from my cursory look.
At current pricing I compared to GLB (even has 3 rows like Y!) The rep said they've never had a fatality?
2022 Mercedes-Benz GLB-Class Sales Figures
Mercedes-Benz GLB-Class monthly, quarterly, and yearly sales and statistics in the United States. Including data and interactive charts for the latest model year 2022 and crossover/suvs segment.
Driver death rates by make and model
One way to compare the relative safety of vehicles is to look at driver death rates.
www.iihs.org
ZenRockGarden
Active Member
The fact that several of the "fatalities" in the already tiny set attributed to the Model Y are not even within the car (pedestrian deaths or multi-car pileups) makes this method of estimating how "safe" the Model Y is even more sketchy.
You did see that in the data right? The tiny numbers you are basing your whole theory on don't count just people in the car you're trying to measure?
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