Model Y fence-sitter contemplating CPO Model S as holdover.

[11thIndian]

Hey everyone.

After last week's news that Model Y will be going into production no earlier than late 2019, and more likely 2020- I'm starting to consider an interim option since I'm doubtful that my 2004 Forester is going to make it to when I can reasonably expect to take delivery of a Model Y here in Canada. (Thinking late 2020 at the earliest).

So I've started to consider several holdover options, from ICE cars like a Tiguan, to currently available Electric options like the KIA Soul or eGolf, as range-constricted as they are.

At the most ambitious end of my thinking is a CPO Model S. I've been keeping my eye on the PreOwned page of Tesla's site for a while, and within the last month I've started to see more cars showing up in the mid $60Ks (again, Canadian prices).

So I guess the question is what are people's experiences with CPO Financing, the word "Lease" actually appears on the page but I'm guessing you can't lease a used Tesla.

I'm definitely planning to reserve and move to a Model Y when I can, so ideally I'm hoping to get into this car for about 3 years. After that, I'm wondering what my exit strategy will be? Will a Model S continue to hold it's value? Will Tesla still be buying back older cars with the 45-60K additional mileage I'll likely put on it between now and 2020?

Thoughts welcome! Thanks!

 

[Takumi]

If you're considering the Kia Soul EV or eGolf, why not the Bolt as well? Unless the Supercharging network is high up there in the priority list.

 

[11thIndian]

If you're considering the Kia Soul EV or eGolf, why not the Bolt as well? Unless the Supercharging network is high up there in the priority list.

I guess I don't like how much it costs for what it is. The Bolt's only plus is the range. If I could get either the KIA or the eGolf with more range I think I'd have made my decision already.

Of course getting into a used Tesla would quell that urge while I wait for the car I really want. I'm figuring the prices I'm looking at aren't that far off than what I'll likely pay for a well equipped Model Y in a few years. My real concern is what the market will be for a 60 or 75 RWD in another 3 years, as those cars are absent even Autopilot V1. I think I'd still enjoy the Tesla experience I'd get out of it, but I don't' want to schmuck myself when I could be spending less and setting aside some cash for my Model Y.

 

[Gwgan]

The sooner you get the first EV the less time you will spend kicking yourself you did it do it sooner. Why the Y? Guessing cost & space. A basic CPO S will more than satisfy the space need and an early model will have unlimited Supercharging. I'd worry more about the resale value of a Bolt in three years. Word around here is that the Store will have a more comprehensive list than the website so it pays to ask.
Exploring options via searches may help you settle on some preferred configurations
EV-CPO / Tesla CPO, Preowned, Used and Inventory Listings / ev-cpo.com
Tesla Inventory Search

 

[alapd]

You were really holding out for a car you've never seen, know barely anything about, and is at least 3 years away?

Gotta love Tesla!

 

[11thIndian]

You were really holding out for a car you've never seen, know barely anything about, and is at least 3 years away?

Gotta love Tesla!

Well, I don't think it's too hard to imagine what the Y will look like based on Tesla's vehicles so far, so I don't think it's totally blind faith. . More like I'm just looking for the cheaper version of the Model X.

 

[Beryl]

Grabbing a CPO sounds like an excellent idea. That is exactly what I'd do if I were in your situation as I, too, am interested in the Model Y. If you can swing it, make sure you get one with AP 1. Most of the lower priced CPOs will have unlimited Supercharging.

 

[XJmaxxG8]

I was in a similar situation last year with the Model 3. I reserved on March 31, but quickly decided I could not wait 18+ months, so I pulled the trigger on a CPO 2013 S85 in May and picked it up in June. I still have my 3 reservation, but am leaning toward cancelling it, depending on the final product and pricing. The thing that may be the last nail in my 3 reservation's coffin is the news that the Y and other future models will ditch the 12V battery, which I have already had issues with in my S.

 

[croman]

Model S has tons of storage and room. Its only downside vs. SUV is low height. I think you can't go wrong and there are plenty of good CPOs available, even with AP1.

 

[twonius]

I'm gonna say don't do it if you're not planning on keeping the car for 5+ years. You're going to take a big depreciation hit trading in your Model S in 2-3 years (about 24-36%), to the point where you might be underwater on the loan if you're not careful. Of course you may not be so motivated to move down the range to a model Y once you have a Model S. Also beware the first year of production for any automaker.

If you are planning on keeping it that long, personally I think the CPO cars are overpriced relative to the cost of getting into a low spec 75. especially when you take into account the quality improvements and AP. I went this route, take a look at the model on teslacost.com to get an idea of the long term cost of owning one of these cars.

If you're looking for a solution in the short term I'd say #1 is keep the Forrester running. even if it's having expensive problems I'm guessing it's paid off, so even if you have to throw a new engine in it, it'll still be vastly cheaper than the depreciation hit..

Alternatively, the smaller BEVs you're looking at have crazy lease deals. I'd add the BMW 330e and the Mini Clubman PHEV to the list as both of these cars would be good alternatives if you want EV on most days but also need a bit more range. Especially in a northern climate your range is going to be maybe 3/4 of the advertised during winter, so having a range extender might be the best fit for your lifestyle.

 

[twonius]

If you're considering the Kia Soul EV or eGolf, why not the Bolt as well? Unless the Supercharging network is high up there in the priority list.

Bolt / Volt lease is probably the most logical solution here.

 

[11thIndian]

Thanks everyone. Managing the depreciation of of an S over the relatively short term I want it is the largest challenge to this scenario. For a bunch of reasons the cSUV of the Model Y works much better for me (kid, large dog, skis, bikes, paddle board....) so the S would always be a compromise to get into a Tesla now. Even an X would be a compromise because of the FWDs.

My wife just reminded me of the Audi A3 e-tron. Which does allow for pure EV mode of 16miles/30km. Which certainly isn't a lot, but would probably do us fine for all our local driving. Plus it's new so I can lease an walk away when the Model Y comes out, and her in Ontario it's eligible for a $8,000 credit. Just one option, but I sat in one today and it's a nice one.

 

[twonius]

Thanks everyone. Managing the depreciation of of an S over the relatively short term I want it is the largest challenge to this scenario. For a bunch of reasons the cSUV of the Model Y works much better for me (kid, large dog, skis, bikes, paddle board....) so the S would always be a compromise to get into a Tesla now. Even an X would be a compromise because of the FWDs.

My wife just reminded me of the Audi A3 e-tron. Which does allow for pure EV mode of 16miles/30km. Which certainly isn't a lot, but would probably do us fine for all our local driving. Plus it's new so I can lease an walk away when the Model Y comes out, and her in Ontario it's eligible for a $8,000 credit. Just one option, but I sat in one today and it's a nice one.

A3 is nice but I'm not sure all that stuff will fit.
if you're willing to go $150-$200 more you could go with an x5 40e from what I've seen BMWs lease deals are pretty good value for money. But then you're talking about an expensive lease. ~$500/mo. Maybe XC90 T8 if you find the right deal.

Too bad the XC60 PHEV isn't out yet. I've heard it'll be out in the fall though
That's probably the closest you'll get to a model Y until 2020-21

 

[11thIndian]

The roof-rack will take care of the paddleboard/skis in alternating seasons, and Audi sells a rear rack for the bikes.

The sad fact is there's no perfect option at this point. 2019 is when there's likely to be a few good options, but then we'll be only a year out from Model Y production.

I could keep dumping money into the Forester, but at this point it's costing me about $3K-$5K per year in maintenance costs, and honestly I'm tired of the lack of reliability. I I think the eGolf could work range-wise in the short term, but it's even less able to take the paddleboard and bikes than the A3. The Bolt, the only car with good range is also too small.

There is a RAV4 AWD Hybrid, which would be a perfect holdover SUV, but there's pretty much no pure electric range. Ug!

 

[paperjohn]

Go for the cpo S. They hold their value. You will enjoy the experience.

 

[MXWing]

Don't hold your breath waiting for Elon. Asking if Elon is going to be late is asking if the pope is Catholic.

Not a criticism mind you. I own a Tesla car and invest in TSLA with this knowledge baked in.
This is just the quirk of the Tesla experience.

Having owned a Tesla now I don't think I could wait for the Y no way. Not even sure if can wait for the 3 as the second car. Might have to spring for a CPO S as well.

 

[11thIndian]

@twonius Thanks for the recommendations. The BMW x5 40e MSRP starts at $74,950 up here in Canada. And the Volvo XC90 with the dual motors isn't too far off from a base Model X.

When I spend in the $60K+ range, it's going to be for a well-spec'd Model Y. These other cars are getting just too expensive for an interim solution. While the A3 isn't a direct replacement for the Forester, it will do, and can eventually replace my wife's Golf when the lease is up and the Y goes into production. Leaving us with one pure electric and one Hybrid. That's pretty good.

 

[MXWing]

@twonius Thanks for the recommendations. The BMW x5 40e MSRP starts at $74,950 up here in Canada. And the Volvo XC90 with the dual motors isn't too far off from a base Model X.

When I spend in the $60K+ range, it's going to be for a well-spec'd Model Y. These other cars are getting just too expensive for an interim solution. While the A3 isn't a direct replacement for the Forester, it will do, and can eventually replace my wife's Golf when the lease is up and the Y goes into production. Leaving us with one pure electric and one Hybrid. That's pretty good.

It's rumored the Y might have Falcon Wing Doors. You should check out an X just to see if your are ok with that.

 

[11thIndian]

It might or might not. We won't know for probably another year. The last time Elon talked about it, it was still on the Model 3 platform. Now it's not, so I think anything that he said way back then is very likely irrelivent.

FWDs wouldn't be my preference. I don't mind them in theory, but they kill rooftop storage for my paddleboard. There are suction cup rack systems, but it's obviously a bit of a hack.

I'll assess the car when it's unveiled.

 

[twonius]

@twonius Thanks for the recommendations. The BMW x5 40e MSRP starts at $74,950 up here in Canada. And the Volvo XC90 with the dual motors isn't too far off from a base Model X.

When I spend in the $60K+ range, it's going to be for a well-spec'd Model Y. These other cars are getting just too expensive for an interim solution. While the A3 isn't a direct replacement for the Forester, it will do, and can eventually replace my wife's Golf when the lease is up and the Y goes into production. Leaving us with one pure electric and one Hybrid. That's pretty good.

Yeah i wouldn't buy either of those outright but the Leases are far cheaper than the model X lease ($500-$600 /mo instead of $1000+ for the Tesla). Not sure how it is in Canada but stateside these heavily subsidized leases can be a bargain.