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Model Y - Gigafactory Texas Production
- Thread starter Ron J.
- Start date
BGOwner
Active Member
It's what I found googling, I dunno. I found this picture towards the bottom of this page which was apparently from a tour at giga Berlin, it's a more "electric" metallic looking blue
Tesla to offer three new paint colors
Mrbrock
Active Member
Deep breaths people. Just because there are 10 cars doesn’t mean they are producing production vehicles just yet. Still need to send for crash testing and certification. These could just be first test vehicles.
But but but there's 1 MSM parked there and it could be MINE! Looks like 7 blue, 3 white, 2 black, 1 MSM. @8:52 there's a good zoom out of them. Also it looks like the site took some damage from that nasty storm system that rolled through, nothing too serious but there's a few piles of material that blew over.
I have a blue order due on the east coast in two weeks. Already got my vin with an F so I assume these can’t be mine 
If will be interesting to see what shows up today and tomorrow in the drone flyovers by Jeff and Joe. Hopefully more production MYs showing up and maybe car carriers loading up by later this week. At least 2 Tesla sales centers here in FL have been told they can expect to receive a new demo MY on Jan. 24th and perhaps some of these initial production MYs will shipped out to the sales centers as showroom/demo vehicles.
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bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
That's overly optimistic. They have to do crash testing, road-worthiness validation, etc. etc.
I would like a drone operator to try to get a VIN from the windshield to confirm these are really Austin production. An operator was able to do that in Berlin.
There’s a big difference between preproduction and production. This appears to be a good sign and hopefully they keep moving.
Again, using Shanghai as a basis this would (without confirmation from Tesla) put us at Oct 2019 equivalent for Shanghai. They started getting cars to employees in Dec 2019 and customers in Jan 2020.
I’d expect continued testing and validation over next couple weeks. They can always surprise and announce shipments to customers at Jan 26 yearly report event, but I still think that’s going to be more of a “preproduction announcement” and sales to customers in March. But still hoping im wrong.
Steady as she goes… so far all the rumored dates have been missed.
Again, using Shanghai as a basis this would (without confirmation from Tesla) put us at Oct 2019 equivalent for Shanghai. They started getting cars to employees in Dec 2019 and customers in Jan 2020.
I’d expect continued testing and validation over next couple weeks. They can always surprise and announce shipments to customers at Jan 26 yearly report event, but I still think that’s going to be more of a “preproduction announcement” and sales to customers in March. But still hoping im wrong.
Steady as she goes… so far all the rumored dates have been missed.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
There’s a big difference between preproduction and production. This appears to be a good sign and hopefully they keep moving.
Again, using Shanghai as a basis this would (without confirmation from Tesla) put us at Oct 2019 equivalent for Shanghai. They started getting cars to employees in Dec 2019 and customers in Jan 2020.
I’d expect continued testing and validation over next couple weeks. They can always surprise and announce shipments to customers at Jan 26 yearly report event, but I still think that’s going to be more of a “preproduction announcement” and sales to customers in March. But still hoping im wrong.
Steady as she goes… so far all the rumored dates have been missed.
Shanghai waiting to deliver to customer till Jan 1 was an accounting move, not a readiness move. If they delivered ANY cars to customers in Nov/Dec then they would have been required to start depreciating the capital expenditures for the factory in that year, which would have had a major impact upon the quarterly and yearly numbers. By delaying just 1-2 months, they were able to make the financials look much better. Austin and Berlin don't have that artificial limitation b/c we have already crossed over to the new year.
Well hopefully safely and being considerate!
It was posted earlier that Tesla security started to bug drone operators because they started to fly as low as 20 ft off the ground. Seems like these people are starting to get too aggressive in order to feed their channels.
That’s a pretty big assumption. Accounting certainly has a consideration, but I’ve never seen any scenario where sitting on a functioning facility and not sending out finished product made sense for “depreciation”. If you want to argue they delayed a week or two… maybe but that doesn’t change the story or timing I’m pointing out. But to say they could’ve shipped in Oct or Nov but didn’t because of depreciation just wouldn’t ever make good financial sense.
Now if you said Shanghai didn’t approve them or didn’t give them regulatory approval I would listen - but have never found evidence of that. It looks like they shipped as soon as they hit internal QC and production rate targets.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
I have a VP-level friend at Tesla. He left a year ago, but this is what I was told, and it fits.
It's also EXTREMELY common practice in business to do things like this to make financials look as good as possible. It wasn't worth a 400-500 million dollar quarterly charge in the books for Shanghai to ship out a few thousand model 3s. Not when you can sit on them for a month or so and defer that charge to the next quarter, which would have many more thousand cars to help it out.
Yours is the voice of reason. If they are pre-produciton its unlikely they will send them out as demos. Demos get sold as used when Tesla is done with them, not something hey would do with pre-production. And you don’t want something that isn’t quite 100 percent out there as a demo representing your products.There’s a big difference between preproduction and production. This appears to be a good sign and hopefully they keep moving.
Again, using Shanghai as a basis this would (without confirmation from Tesla) put us at Oct 2019 equivalent for Shanghai. They started getting cars to employees in Dec 2019 and customers in Jan 2020.
I’d expect continued testing and validation over next couple weeks. They can always surprise and announce shipments to customers at Jan 26 yearly report event, but I still think that’s going to be more of a “preproduction announcement” and sales to customers in March. But still hoping im wrong.
Steady as she goes… so far all the rumored dates have been missed.
Trying hard not to speculate here. The only thing I can add to the conversation without doing that is that the MY’s in the photo are 99.99 percent likely to have been produced at Austin. One angle shows fairly clearly they don’t have license plates, and more to the point they are sparkling clean. As if they were, uh, inside their whole short lives and only just then rolled outside.... between the early morning drone flight and this one. Pretty much every other vehicle shown in any of the drone flights around this factory has had at least some visible dust/mud on them.... that area is apparently pretty dirty environment to drive in. And these cars are pristine.
Now on to speculation: they are almost certainly LR models, but I guess in theory (slim to no chance) they could be MYP with the Geminis just because that’s what they had laying around. But to me it smells like we’re headed for MYLR production first, best guess is with old batteries in modified structural pack, as Elon suggested was a possibility. Unless they have stockpiled so many 4680s and are seeing such good production ramp up with the batteries they feel absolutely sure they’re covered, with the help of the initially low Austin production rates.
How they would square that with continuing to ship old battery version out of Fremont until Austin production is high... one more question that should get answered at earnings call.
I can’t validate your insider nor am I going to play let’s put our insider on the table and see who’s bigger.
In a vacuum yes. But in a situation where it’s an emerging market, you are oversold, trying to enter a new market and have a stock that is more driven by hype and hope than actual… 400-500 million isn’t actually meaningful. Announcing customer deployments and getting those 1,000 cars into the market is far more valuable to Tesla. But since a VP at Tesla tells you that’s wrong and it was better to wait even though the factory was ready, I’ll defer to them.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
I can’t validate your insider nor am I going to play let’s put our insider on the table and see who’s bigger.
In a vacuum yes. But in a situation where it’s an emerging market, you are oversold, trying to enter a new market and have a stock that is more driven by hype and hope than actual… 400-500 million isn’t actually meaningful. Announcing customer deployments and getting those 1,000 cars into the market is far more valuable to Tesla. But since a VP at Tesla tells you that’s wrong and it was better to wait even though the factory was ready, I’ll defer to them.
We'll agree to disagree then.
To be fair, I really want Tesla to ship Austin stamped 4680 Model Ys. It’s best for the whole industry. And with the state of the other car companies pathetic attempts to enter the market, Austin producing at even 50% capacity changes the whole game and puts laser focus on how far behind the others actually are.
I also am a very analytical person and use data and facts based on a long time (longer than I want to admit) in manufacturing and process control automation. There’s just certain things that have to happen. Tesla is changing the world and manufacturing but there are just laws of nature they can’t rewrite.
I hope people get Austin Ys within the next 2 weeks. I just fundamentally can’t see that happening based on evidence.
In terms of facts… the real insider we need is someone from the supply chain. The electricians and construction and sales and marketing and engineering insiders only know their pieces. The supply chain insiders know exactly when the first vehicle trailer destined to a service center is scheduled to leave Austin.
I also am a very analytical person and use data and facts based on a long time (longer than I want to admit) in manufacturing and process control automation. There’s just certain things that have to happen. Tesla is changing the world and manufacturing but there are just laws of nature they can’t rewrite.
I hope people get Austin Ys within the next 2 weeks. I just fundamentally can’t see that happening based on evidence.
In terms of facts… the real insider we need is someone from the supply chain. The electricians and construction and sales and marketing and engineering insiders only know their pieces. The supply chain insiders know exactly when the first vehicle trailer destined to a service center is scheduled to leave Austin.
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