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Model Y - Gigafactory Texas Production

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This makes sense. Also, if there is any material difference in 2170/4680 performance (at the level that might influence behavior, even 20 miles range) you'd probably *not* announce it and wait until people are actually taking deliveries of Austin MYs to say anything (when it would become more apparent) at which point you transition Fremont. At which point wouldn't surprise me if we didn't start seeing another rash of holds and "take delivery or your order is canceled" emails...
Exactly, they aren't going to update things until the cars are already being delivered. If they do, plenty of existing orders may get cancelled. The only reason I could see them updating it is if they try to pitch it off as a new trim. Such as a MYP Plus or Plaid - lighter weight and maybe even more power.... for another $5k lol.
 
My EDD updated to 2/13-2/26. I’m strongly considering actually putting it on “hold” for the first time. I would be super upset if I miss Austin by a mere few days, especially when I’m been waiting almost a year already!

(MYLR, 5seat, Blue/Black, 20s, TOW, no FSD)
 
So the real question is going to be what size battery are the going to place in the structural pack. The assumed 30% range gain for the 4680 is 16% by cell design and up to 14% by structural integration. If the MYLR in Fremont has an 82KW battery the MYLR in Austin woould only need a 55 to 60KW battery to match range . The 4680 battery is basically more efficient not a higher density battery.

If the MY battery today is 4,416 pounds and the rumored saving of 400 pounds is real then that translates to about 9% reduction in KW capacity by weight. If we look at 91% of the current 82KW battery that comes to a 75KW battery (which is where the origional LR batteries were in capacity) . So the Austin cars will likely have 75KW capacity. I expect in the end that the Austin LR cars will get about 350 miles of range. (given current calculations)

In reality I think they keep the same 330 posted rangebut the car now actually gets its EPA range

My prediction is that the 4680 packs will carry a similar amount of energy to the existing packs (82kW). Tesla will just software limit them initially to match the range of the MY coming out of Freemont. Then, once Freemont switches over to 4680, BOOM, they can software unlock the original Austin models to get more range.
 
Here we go BBB all over again.
Not exactly. When I placed my order I told the SA I wanted a Austin MY no matter how long it took. He told me to not complete my profile. I didn’t complete it until he told me to complete it (this was all back when it looked like Austin was going to start producing cars in October). He told me not to worry if any cars get assigned he’ll just unassigned them and give them to other people waiting locally who want the same thing, no big deal. I’ve never put my order on hold. I got assigned a car once, back on 11/5, and he simply gave it to someone else. Ive been waiting for a VIN again ever since, which is fine because the longer it goes unassigned, the closer I am to a Austin MY. Anyhow, the conversation I had with the SA when I placed my initial order was pretty specific almost a year ago… I wanted a car from Austin.
 
My EDD updated to 2/13-2/26. I’m strongly considering actually putting it on “hold” for the first time. I would be super upset if I miss Austin by a mere few days, especially when I’m been waiting almost a year already!

(MYLR, 5seat, Blue/Black, 20s, TOW, no FSD)
When did you order. The 20's, tow and Color are all increases which put you to the front of the line.. I orderd on 9/12 but didn't complete my profile till November because my Trade-in wasn't running ( they want a picture of the dash while running) had no idea it impacted EDD.

If you want an Austin car then just reconfig your existing order, it looks like they are cracking down on holds so chances are you may end up taking delivery or having the ordered canceled
 
When did you order. The 20's, tow and Color are all increases which put you to the front of the line.. I orderd on 9/12 but didn't complete my profile till November because my Trade-in wasn't running ( they want a picture of the dash while running) had no idea it impacted EDD.

If you want an Austin car then just reconfig your existing order, it looks like they are cracking down on holds so chances are you may end up taking delivery or having the ordered canceled
Original order is from 4/7 and profile completed on 8/25. I’m just going to reach out to my SA and refresh his memory about the conversation we had when I ordered and what he had told me. He’s been a standup guy so far and always done what he said he was going to do. I’ll just ask him if I should finally put the order on “hold” for once or if he’ll continue to take care of what he has to, to make sure I get an Austin MY.
 
Original order is from 4/7 and profile completed on 8/25. I’m just going to reach out to my SA and refresh his memory about the conversation we had when I ordered and what he had told me. He’s been a standup guy so far and always done what he said he was going to do. I’ll just ask him if I should finally put the order on “hold” for once or if he’ll continue to take care of what he has to go make sure I get an Austin MY.
lol.... no way in hell they allow any kind of additional hold. Your only hope for an austin car is if they just delay all remaining deliveries to florida
 
My prediction is that the 4680 packs will carry a similar amount of energy to the existing packs (82kW). Tesla will just software limit them initially to match the range of the MY coming out of Freemont. Then, once Freemont switches over to 4680, BOOM, they can software unlock the original Austin models to get more range.
Why? Costs Tesla money to put 82kwh in the cars instead of 75kwh. They are cell and chip constrained right now as they ramp up 4680 production. Save that 7kwh for other cars.
Just staying hopeful. Not sure why it’s such a crazy concept. There’s a back order of MY with intel chips by that logic but some are coming with AMD. That’s the same as saying there’s no word on Fremont built cars with the new battery but Austin built cars may have them.
There’s hope when something has been told its going to happen. Tesla has not once talked about matrix headlights in MY. They put them in a premium trim, MYP. Premium costs more. It’s been a year and the stockpile of ”old” headlights that was sure to run out in early 2021 is still going strong which means they are still being produced. Tesla doesn’t stockpile 200,000 sets of headlights.
 
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Original order is from 4/7 and profile completed on 8/25. I’m just going to reach out to my SA and refresh his memory about the conversation we had when I ordered and what he had told me. He’s been a standup guy so far and always done what he said he was going to do. I’ll just ask him if I should finally put the order on “hold” for once or if he’ll continue to take care of what he has to, to make sure I get an Austin MY.
From what I've read, it sounded like they have no control over your order getting cancelled. Just keep that in mind when you go on hold again.
 
Why? Costs Tesla money to put 82kwh in the cars instead of 75kwh. They are cell and chip constrained right now as they ramp up 4680 production. Save that 7kwh for other cars.

There’s hope when something has been told its going to happen. Tesla has not once talked about matrix headlights in MY. They put them in a premium trim, MYP. Premium costs more. It’s been a year and the stockpile of ”old” headlights that was sure to run out in early 2021 is still going strong which means they are still being produced. Tesla doesn’t stockpile 200,000 sets of headlights.
Tesla said they are NOT cell constrained; they said it right on the call. They said they are literally only chip constrained and are not worried about cells. 🤷🏻‍♂️
 
Tesla said they are NOT cell constrained; they said it right on the call. They said they are literally only chip constrained and are not worried about cells. 🤷🏻‍♂️
If they really have no shortage of cells it would benefit them to come out with a longer-range version of certain cars, that and/or nix the cheapest Model 3 with the smaller battery.... but I'm not sure how sales are of that atm, maybe they need a cheaper option.

Still, I've got a MYP reserved at 63k. If they offered a faster version with slightly longer range for 68 (so 4k above current), I'd cancel my current order and pay more for the faster, longer range vehicle.
 
If they really have no shortage of cells it would benefit them to come out with a longer-range version of certain cars, that and/or nix the cheapest Model 3 with the smaller battery.... but I'm not sure how sales are of that atm, maybe they need a cheaper option.

Still, I've got a MYP reserved at 63k. If they offered a faster version with slightly longer range for 68 (so 4k above current), I'd cancel my current order and pay more for the faster, longer range vehicle.
To be clear, They are not cell constrained for 2022 and that is because if the chip shortage. They did say that they are likely to be cell constrained in 2023 after the chip shortage ends. So don't expect them to increase range. They will not be releasing any "New" cars/configs in 2022

The Problem with MYP is not power it is cooling. Even if the 4680 can deliver more power it does not mean the MYP is capable of using it without a redesign.
 
Not exactly. When I placed my order I told the SA I wanted a Austin MY no matter how long it took. He told me to not complete my profile. I didn’t complete it until he told me to complete it (this was all back when it looked like Austin was going to start producing cars in October). He told me not to worry if any cars get assigned he’ll just unassigned them and give them to other people waiting locally who want the same thing, no big deal. I’ve never put my order on hold. I got assigned a car once, back on 11/5, and he simply gave it to someone else. Ive been waiting for a VIN again ever since, which is fine because the longer it goes unassigned, the closer I am to a Austin MY. Anyhow, the conversation I had with the SA when I placed my initial order was pretty specific almost a year ago… I wanted a car from Austin.

Then you should have ordered the car when Austin production started. It is exactly the same for those who placed their orders on hold for BBB since people put off getting deliveries since 2020 to Early 2021 for the tax credits. I would love my moms Y to be from Austin. But if we get a Fremont Y, guess what? We will still take delivery because we ordered at the time of how the car currently was at time of order even knowing the pending improvements.

You were not a serious customer at the time of order.... But alas this is off topic.
 
One point to consider - There was nothing specific said in the earnings call as to what configuration of the MY will be coming from Fremont. Some of the 4680 comments could be taken to apply to both Fremont and Texas built MYs while others were just taking about plans for Texas MY production. So there was really no clarification coming from the call to indicate if Fremont built MYs will soon transition over to the new chassis and with 4680 structural battery packs, or not. It does appear that Fremont has been preparing for months to go to the ver. 2.0 chassis with the front and rear maga-castings and this would mean it would require use a structural battery pack. Then the big question is will they use 2160 vs. 4680 structural battery packs. My best GUESS is Fremont will be producing MYs with the new chassis and using 4680 battery packs by the end of this Quarter, around the time MYs deliveries from Texas starts up. This could result in no more than a few weeks transition period when the two factories are out of sync.

It was not clear from the earnings call as to what type of "certification" Tesla is waiting on before starting MY customer deliveries from Austin. I suspect that updated EPA range numbers are part of that certification.

Quarterly update is at this link:
This all makes a lot of sense. would have been nice to have that clarity, but Tesla will Tesla. No idea how or even if the company will officially note the changes. Kind of expect them to simply change the order page to reflect the different range numbers without explanation, but how they do that while a mix is still coming out, messy stuff.
Seems extremely unlikely they can match range the two kinds of batteries exactly, but I guess they could simply say there was no difference if it is pretty close. It seems likely they will want to boost the range number at least a few miles for competitive reasons... just pile on Hyundai and Ford while the going is good. But not a lot.
 
Not exactly. When I placed my order I told the SA I wanted a Austin MY no matter how long it took. He told me to not complete my profile. I didn’t complete it until he told me to complete it (this was all back when it looked like Austin was going to start producing cars in October). He told me not to worry if any cars get assigned he’ll just unassigned them and give them to other people waiting locally who want the same thing, no big deal. I’ve never put my order on hold. I got assigned a car once, back on 11/5, and he simply gave it to someone else. Ive been waiting for a VIN again ever since, which is fine because the longer it goes unassigned, the closer I am to a Austin MY. Anyhow, the conversation I had with the SA when I placed my initial order was pretty specific almost a year ago… I wanted a car from Austin.
Then why didn't you wait until an Austin produced vehicle was announced? Your SA is at the bottom of the chain, he cares about one thing. Can you guess what that would be? All you have done for a year is skewed delivery numbers.
 
To be clear, They are not cell constrained for 2022 and that is because if the chip shortage. They did say that they are likely to be cell constrained in 2023 after the chip shortage ends. So don't expect them to increase range. They will not be releasing any "New" cars/configs in 2022

The Problem with MYP is not power it is cooling. Even if the 4680 can deliver more power it does not mean the MYP is capable of using it without a redesign.
Is cooling really that much of an issue? I know its an issue in general with EVs and that its Ford counterpart suffers horribly from it, but its power really isn't that great compared to many other EVs. It already makes 7-8% less hp than the Mach E GT (again, I know it has its issues).

Still, hp bump or not, lighter weight will make a big difference in acceleration, braking and handling.