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Model Y - Gigafactory Texas Production
- Thread starter Ron J.
- Start date
It said March when I ordered and within 72 hours I had slipped to April. Then a week later I was in March, now I’m back to April. WTF.
Welcome to the roller coaster. We've all been there.
At least one person who ordered was given a June date for a while.... then back to March, then May, then.... I have no idea.
Point being, you're not alone. I heard Tesla recently revamped (in January) how they queue orders. I might be wrong about that, but if that's the case, maybe things will stabilize at some point.
Mrbrock
Active Member
Based on another thread, did some math for 4680 production. Doesn’t look good based on current yield numbers from another member. Also appears they were training Texas employees on the 4680 lines at Kato in late January so likely 0 production from Austin lines until now. And the line the Austin people were using for trading had 82% rejection rate. Not good. See this post for math:
teslamotorsclub.com
Bottom line, Kato is producing enough cells for 8 cars per day. The 1 million cell stockpile is 160 days of production at current rate. This will be chewed through in no time.
Based on new calculations, my thinking is 4680 will only be MYP and LR will be 2170 until they can ramp 4680 production. Kato is at 220 MWh per year production right now. That’s about 2800 cars at 80kWh each. That is also about 1/100th the capacity Elon quoted for Kato currently (10th largest would be about 25gWh). Long way to go and definitely another misleading (erroneous?) quote from Elon. If Austin 4680 comes online equivalent to Kato, that’s 5600 cars per year and have we seen 14 4680 lines at Austin yet?
Why hasn’t Tesla published the range & HP on the new great 4680 battery? Sr. VP has been driving around Texas with a new MY (4680) for days now. 🤷🏻♂️
Not sure what you are referring to the extra 4-5% and paying for it, or even the price point of $1k or $2k. You seem to have much more detail info, maybe insider track? Anyways. Here is a good video and calculations on all of this, I am sure you all probably have seen it. This guy makes...
teslamotorsclub.com
Bottom line, Kato is producing enough cells for 8 cars per day. The 1 million cell stockpile is 160 days of production at current rate. This will be chewed through in no time.
Based on new calculations, my thinking is 4680 will only be MYP and LR will be 2170 until they can ramp 4680 production. Kato is at 220 MWh per year production right now. That’s about 2800 cars at 80kWh each. That is also about 1/100th the capacity Elon quoted for Kato currently (10th largest would be about 25gWh). Long way to go and definitely another misleading (erroneous?) quote from Elon. If Austin 4680 comes online equivalent to Kato, that’s 5600 cars per year and have we seen 14 4680 lines at Austin yet?
I don't know man, that would be a gross misstatement about delivering cars by end of Q1 if they could only produce 8 a day. Think about the Tesla Semi and Cybertruck, I don't think the math is right or if it is, then they are expecting to ramp 4680 production fairly quickly.Based on another thread, did some math for 4680 production. Doesn’t look good based on current yield numbers from another member. Also appears they were training Texas employees on the 4680 lines at Kato in late January so likely 0 production from Austin lines until now. And the line the Austin people were using for trading had 82% rejection rate. Not good. See this post for math:
Why hasn’t Tesla published the range & HP on the new great 4680 battery? Sr. VP has been driving around Texas with a new MY (4680) for days now. 🤷🏻♂️
Not sure what you are referring to the extra 4-5% and paying for it, or even the price point of $1k or $2k. You seem to have much more detail info, maybe insider track? Anyways. Here is a good video and calculations on all of this, I am sure you all probably have seen it. This guy makes...
Bottom line, Kato is producing enough cells for 8 cars per day. The 1 million cell stockpile is 160 days of production at current rate. This will be chewed through in no time.
Based on new calculations, my thinking is 4680 will only be MYP and LR will be 2170 until they can ramp 4680 production. Kato is at 220 MWh per year production right now. That’s about 2800 cars at 80kWh each. That is also about 1/100th the capacity Elon quoted for Kato currently (10th largest would be about 25gWh). Long way to go and definitely another misleading (erroneous?) quote from Elon. If Austin 4680 comes online equivalent to Kato, that’s 5600 cars per year and have we seen 14 4680 lines at Austin yet?
The Austin drone footage from yesterday peering in at a long, long set of battery lines showed zero production going on. Same stuff we’ve been seeing for couple months. A handful of people walking around inside the factory or sitting, and not much going on. The assumption is, down the bowels somewhere, the production lines are knocking out dozens of cars a day that are being stockpiled inside. Looks more like nothing serious will happen there for another few weeks at soonest.Based on another thread, did some math for 4680 production. Doesn’t look good based on current yield numbers from another member. Also appears they were training Texas employees on the 4680 lines at Kato in late January so likely 0 production from Austin lines until now. And the line the Austin people were using for trading had 82% rejection rate. Not good. See this post for math:
Why hasn’t Tesla published the range & HP on the new great 4680 battery? Sr. VP has been driving around Texas with a new MY (4680) for days now. 🤷🏻♂️
Not sure what you are referring to the extra 4-5% and paying for it, or even the price point of $1k or $2k. You seem to have much more detail info, maybe insider track? Anyways. Here is a good video and calculations on all of this, I am sure you all probably have seen it. This guy makes...
Bottom line, Kato is producing enough cells for 8 cars per day. The 1 million cell stockpile is 160 days of production at current rate. This will be chewed through in no time.
Based on new calculations, my thinking is 4680 will only be MYP and LR will be 2170 until they can ramp 4680 production. Kato is at 220 MWh per year production right now. That’s about 2800 cars at 80kWh each. That is also about 1/100th the capacity Elon quoted for Kato currently (10th largest would be about 25gWh). Long way to go and definitely another misleading (erroneous?) quote from Elon. If Austin 4680 comes online equivalent to Kato, that’s 5600 cars per year and have we seen 14 4680 lines at Austin yet?
Mrbrock
Active Member
They always expect things to happen perfectly but it never does. And if they deliver 10 cars per day from Austin, that is still delivering cars from Austin. He did not say we will be delivering cars at full production rate or any number for that matter. Just delivering cars from Austin by end of Q1. They only need to deliver 2 cars to meet that statement. You can read into it all you want but the only way that statement proves false if if they deliver 0 or 1 car. Anything over 1 becomes carS. If anything, they will deliver 2 to employees (who are still customers if they pay for one) just so they can say they did what they said.
And if you don't think the math is right, do the calculations. Look at the data provided by someone working at Kato. It’s all in the links I provided. If this is your “Santa Claus isn’t real”
moment with Elon, I’m sorry to burst your bubble. But facts are facts.Based on another thread, did some math for 4680 production. Doesn’t look good based on current yield numbers from another member. Also appears they were training Texas employees on the 4680 lines at Kato in late January so likely 0 production from Austin lines until now. And the line the Austin people were using for trading had 82% rejection rate. Not good. See this post for math:
Why hasn’t Tesla published the range & HP on the new great 4680 battery? Sr. VP has been driving around Texas with a new MY (4680) for days now. 🤷🏻♂️
Not sure what you are referring to the extra 4-5% and paying for it, or even the price point of $1k or $2k. You seem to have much more detail info, maybe insider track? Anyways. Here is a good video and calculations on all of this, I am sure you all probably have seen it. This guy makes...
Bottom line, Kato is producing enough cells for 8 cars per day. The 1 million cell stockpile is 160 days of production at current rate. This will be chewed through in no time.
Based on new calculations, my thinking is 4680 will only be MYP and LR will be 2170 until they can ramp 4680 production. Kato is at 220 MWh per year production right now. That’s about 2800 cars at 80kWh each. That is also about 1/100th the capacity Elon quoted for Kato currently (10th largest would be about 25gWh). Long way to go and definitely another misleading (erroneous?) quote from Elon. If Austin 4680 comes online equivalent to Kato, that’s 5600 cars per year and have we seen 14 4680 lines at Austin yet?
You can't get any conclusions from that data.
The testing line with 82% failure represented 14 batteries , it was likely a line showing that if you do X then Y happens and this is how you fix it .
The other thing is that this is only a single page of "SOME" of the operating lines, not all of them so we have no idea how many they are actually producing in a day there.
Mrbrock
Active Member
Yes you can. It says “yield by day“ at the top. Then breaks that down into location (machine). The total yield for the day is 6,249. I agree with the low yield testing machine. Notice is discount that data. Also notice other machines operate anywhere from 100 to 900 cells per day. There is massive difference in how the machine work, not good for full scale production. It shows there are still lots of issues with 4680 production.
Bottom line, be real, have low expectations for Austin 4680. Don’t believe hype.
Its a snapshot in time of 1 day with no context , we have no idea if this this a typical day or some experiment they were trying since this is a Lab .
I have absolutley NO expectations about 4680 production since I know nothing about it and neither does anyone else from looking at that page.
Farslasher
Member
Just sharing with the group not following Sawyer Merrit or Jeff. Actual Model Y’s looking like they were produced at Gigafactory potentially ramping up.
Twitter Link - Model Y Prouction Gigafactory Texas
Twitter Link - Model Y Prouction Gigafactory Texas
Interesting. So much for the 'MYP only' idea. Looks like all LR from here.... no?
Farslasher
Member
Yup, "MYP-only” shot down in flames. Gemini wheels peeking out of covers all over the place.
They aren’t cranking out that many P’s with gemini wheels for testing...and those aren’t Fremont cars brought in for calibration. Way too many.
That may be the bulk of what they’ve built to date, but def clear it’s under way, and not all MYP... so far only MYP’s seen from Austin were those shown on the truck earlier this week.. which we have to assume were there.
The MYP only thing could have made sense only for short term anyway, as the factory was intended to supply only part of the country.
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No, and in fact they need to curtail the even black paint and stick with only blue for a few months. And black interiors. No need to get fancy too quickly.
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