Model Y - Gigafactory Texas Production

[advocate8]

In fact, it’s just as plausible to think they’re gearing Austin up to concentrate on clearing the huge backlog of MYLR orders before it gets out of hand (December for white 19’s!!!) and kills off even more potential orders than it already is.
under that scenario they may not even pay much attention to MYP’s, maybe let Fremont become the source for all MYP until some late point in the ramp-up, say, September/October. They make more profit off MYP but its order backlog is a small fraction of the LR.... and they’re def losing money by losing orders at this point...

 

[Suns]

Anyone know how many cars the plant in china made each month it’s first year? I would assume it would be similar #s for Texas so we can estimate how many model Ys they’ll be making

 

[Polymer]

In fact, it’s just as plausible to think they’re gearing Austin up to concentrate on clearing the huge backlog of MYLR orders before it gets out of hand (December for white 19’s!!!) and kills off even more potential orders than it already is.
under that scenario they may not even pay much attention to MYP’s, maybe let Fremont become the source for all MYP at some point in the ramp-up, unitil, say, September/October. They make more profit off MYP but the order backlog is a small fraction of the LR.

Nothing indicates they'd sacrifice higher margin/revenue cars for lower ones. You only have to look at what happens to the date when you change anything to make it more expensive from a base LR and how much that impacts delivery...It would be a poor business decision...They can either backlog the cheapest version of their car or produce higher margin ones...it will roughly be the same number of cars. People buying the cars have an incentive to add something to get a better date and if they absolutely do not want to, they are given an indication of the date so it isn't like they're saying you can get the car tomorrow but not deliver for a year...

 

[advocate8]

Nothing indicates they'd sacrifice higher margin/revenue cars for lower ones. You only have to look at what happens to the date when you change anything to make it more expensive from a base LR and how much that impacts delivery...It would be a poor business decision...They can either backlog the cheapest version of their car or produce higher margin ones...it will roughly be the same number of cars. People buying the cars have an incentive to add something to get a better date and if they absolutely do not want to, they are given an indication of the date so it isn't like they're saying you can get the car tomorrow but not deliver for a year...

I see 108 indications they are building MYLRs.
They can cut the backlog down and the number of orders coming in absolutely would increase. More cars sold is more $ net AND gross. Whether that amount outweighs the additional margin on the relatively small number of P’s being sold, neither of us is in a position to know.
I do know the much shorter wait for P’s is scaring off very few people. So they wouldn’t be “sacrificing" anything by not bearing down on P production even more.
In short whatever extra money they’re making off P’s they’re going to make regardless.

 

[JimMay]

Whoever said they'd be starting with black and blue LRs seems to be right so far.

Looks like exactly my spec in the photos - MYLR Black 19s. Gives me hope my EDD of June comes in quicker (most likely false hope)!

 

[CRIMSON_DATE]

I don't think you sacrifice any revenue by producing MYLR first, you may even increase it . Fremont has been handeling the entire nation so if anything their MYP production can increase if it had to with Austin unloading some of its load by handeling the LR.for half (or part) the nation.

MYP at Austin could actually hurt MYP revenue if there are any measureable performance increases. People getting a Fremont MYP may thin out until they make the switch to 4680

 

[Trout]

No, and in fact they need to curtail the even black paint and stick with only blue for a few months. And black interiors. No need to get fancy too quickly.

I agree, only because I have a blue and black mylr on order for may.

 

[advocate8]

I agree, only because I have a blue and black mylr on order for may.

ditto. we need to form a special interest group to pressure
Tesla.

 

[JimMay]

ditto. we need to form a special interest group to pressure
Tesla.

FWIW spoke with a Tesla SA - says the White and Black MYLR are the two most popular colors, and with Black being the only only incremental cost option of the two, would make sense they produce these first. Adding some more hopium for this cohort (which includes me) .

 

[Polymer]

I see 108 indications they are building MYLRs.
They can cut the backlog down and the number of orders coming in absolutely would increase. More cars sold is more $ net AND gross. Whether that amount outweighs the additional margin on the relatively small number of P’s being sold, neither of us is in a position to know.
I do know the much shorter wait for P’s is scaring off very few people. So they wouldn’t be “sacrificing" anything by not bearing down on P production even more.
In short whatever extra money they’re making off P’s they’re going to make regardless.

Did I say they aren't going to continue to build MYLRs? I think you're missing something..they're not selling more cars by prioritizing LRs....the number of cars is going to be roughly the same number of cars..the question is which ones are prioritized? And just so it is clear, you can get your LR with a much faster lead time, you just need to upgrade things to make the revenue higher....So your whole claim just falls apart, their whole model right now basically says you're incorrect in thinking they're going to do what you propose...

 

[JimMay]

Did I say they aren't going to continue to build MYLRs? I think you're missing something..they're not selling more cars by prioritizing LRs....the number of cars is going to be roughly the same number of cars..the question is which ones are prioritized? And just so it is clear, you can get your LR with a much faster lead time, you just need to upgrade things to make the revenue higher....So your whole claim just falls apart, their whole model right now basically says you're incorrect in thinking they're going to do what you propose...

My two cents, from pictures out so far out of Texas Giga, we can only deduce they have produced MYLR, but not deduce that they have produced MYP. I would also consider that maybe revenue is not the only contribution factor to how Tesla prioritizes. I would assume its a combination of revenue and current EDD times. If I were Tesla, I would impart some value in customer satisfaction and understand that long EDD times may cause new orders to not be made, thus hurting their future incremental revenue opp.

 

[csrpenfab]

ditto. we need to form a special interest group to pressure
Tesla.

Mega dittos. We need confirmation that they're only going to build blue/black MYP's with tow until my order arrives!

 

[curleymapper]

If I were Tesla I’d be parking MYPs out front of Giga Texas first to create a surge of orders / upgrades for MYP driven purely in speculation.

 

[JDL@h]

Cutting down on delivery times is the number one priority for any business. The model y now has competition from the ioniqs, polestars, mach e, etc. They absolutely will lose business if they don't cut down delivery times. The LR buyer might not care about a few $1000s more for MYP, but the ride quality, lesser mpg puts them off. I for one opted for the LR for a better ride and more miles per charge. So even when I had the option to get the MYP sooner, I didn't because of these reasons, not price.

 

[Mrbrock]

Just sharing with the group not following Sawyer Merrit or Jeff. Actual Model Y’s looking like they were produced at Gigafactory potentially ramping up.

Twitter Link - Model Y Prouction Gigafactory Texas

So that’s about 100 cars. If that is everything they have produced over the last month, they are still moving slowly. And with all the Gemini wheels, maybe the MYP truck was from Fremont after all.

 

[advocate8]

Did I say they aren't going to continue to build MYLRs? I think you're missing something..they're not selling more cars by prioritizing LRs....the number of cars is going to be roughly the same number of cars..the question is which ones are prioritized? And just so it is clear, you can get your LR with a much faster lead time, you just need to upgrade things to make the revenue higher....So your whole claim just falls apart, their whole model right now basically says you're incorrect in thinking they're going to do what you propose...

If they can reduce the huge backlog of LR, they’ll get more orders. Thats pretty simple.
The cars are great, but people staring down the barrel of a really long wait time will, in some number, pick other options, be it ICE, Hyundai, whatever.
And August (which is just stated EDD now, many of us are deeply familiar with how optimistic those are on the order page vs what pops up on your account later), is best case no matter how many options you festoon it with. That’s a long time for normal people, who usually need a car about the time they get ready to buy one.

 

[garumaru]

Another sighting at Giga Texas.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1494352640305680388

 

[CRIMSON_DATE]

Another sighting at Giga Texas.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1494352640305680388

View attachment 770427

So now I have a version for each eye...

 

[Polymer]

If they can reduce the huge backlog of LR, they’ll get more orders. Thats pretty simple.
The cars are great, but people staring down the barrel of a really long wait time will, in some number, pick other options, be it ICE, Hyundai, whatever.
And August (which is just stated EDD now, many of us are deeply familiar with how optimistic those are on the order page vs what pops up on your account later), is best case no matter how many options you festoon it with. That’s a long time for normal people, who usually need a car about the time they get ready to buy one.

That's just it..they won't...the backlog of cars is what it is....It doesn't matter which model they prioritize, they can only make X units....They've even raised prices significantly and that seems to have had little impact.
In the interim, if you want a car earlier, you may have to add options you didn't necessarily want....but you will be pushed up in the line when you do so.
Now, if the LR took half the time of the P to make..I'd probably agree with you..but that's not the case.

 

[advocate8]

That's just it..they won't...the backlog of cars is what it is....It doesn't matter which model they prioritize, they can only make X units....They've even raised prices significantly and that seems to have had little impact.
In the interim, if you want a car earlier, you may have to add options you didn't necessarily want....but you will be pushed up in the line when you do so.
Now, if the LR took half the time of the P to make..I'd probably agree with you..but that's not the case.

They’re building P’s a lot closer to the speed at which they’re needed. Current production capacity led to this level of MLYR backlog. An increased production capacity will reduce it. They don’t need to focus on MYP. They’re building enough of them almost fast enough.