Model Y - Gigafactory Texas Production

[kabin]

But the real world is real activity, not 'desired' activity, and truth is truth.
People don't really drive as much as you would like to believe. They may WANT to, but in truth they Do Not.
Once or twice a year road trips isn't the volume you would think.
Flying is just easier and less time consuming for most, present complications notwithstanding. Those will pass.

70% of Tesla deliveries thru 2020 have been to CA and close-in states, followed by the NE area (not sure what 2021 looks like yet).
The Southwest is not a big User base yet.
Look at Tesla's charging network in Texas. NOT THERE MUCH. Even though it's now their HQ. That's changing..... so you'll see more, and soon.
Let's also not forget that people still have ICE vehicles. The EV doesn't have to do it all yet. I expect it will be a few years before range increases much.

It's just a matter of how much one wants to handwave away, avoid, or gloss over the issue. Another 'real world' issue is the degrading battery over time. It may be getting better with improved charging etc. but still there. Common sense always seems to return to the same point - buy the most range available and you can afford.

Yep, a backup ICE vehicle is the old fall back but not something everyone will want to do based on elevated vehicle prices. And good luck trying to get a reasonably priced rental car these days. And it might get worse if rental car companies transform to an EV fleet but they will face the same dilemma with customers less able to drive cross country.

There's enough R/D resources being spent for EV battery capacity to eventually match real world driving needs at more reasonable pricing but I'm not ready to say it's there with the Model Y.

 

[tangible1]

It's just a matter of how much one wants to handwave away, avoid, or gloss over the issue. Another 'real world' issue is the degrading battery over time. It may be getting better with improved charging etc. but still there. Common sense always seems to return to the same point - buy the most range available and you can afford.

Yep, a backup ICE vehicle is the old fall back but not something everyone will want to do based on elevated vehicle prices. And good luck trying to get a reasonably priced rental car these days. And it might get worse if rental car companies transform to an EV fleet but they will face the same dilemma with customers less able to drive cross country.

There's enough R/D resources being spent for EV battery capacity to eventually match real world driving needs at more reasonable pricing but I'm not ready to say it's there with the Model Y.

No one is forcing you into an EV.
If it doesn't suit your needs, just use something else.
Nothing is perfect, there's always one shortcoming or another.
You have choices. that's a good thing.

 

[fahrfrompuken]

Ordered a MYP with due date of Jan 10 - Feb 13. Also ordered a MYLR with delivery estimate of July. The fact that I'm in Austin I hope will ensure getting Austin made cars. If my MYP is ready and is an F code, I will delay as long as possible and then might even cancel to push out delivery since I have a Bolt as my daily driver. Not really in a hurry.

 

[tangible1]

Ordered a MYP with due date of Jan 10 - Feb 13. Also ordered a MYLR with delivery estimate of July. The fact that I'm in Austin I hope will ensure getting Austin made cars. If my MYP is ready and is an F code, I will delay as long as possible and then might even cancel to push out delivery since I have a Bolt as my daily driver. Not really in a hurry.

Not being in a hurry is the only sensible way to approach buying a Tesla.
Don't put a lot of faith in their EDD. It's a random walk.
Just be ready to jump when they say to do so.

 

[benboy12]

Tesla Model Y body for structural battery pack spotted at Gigafactory Texas

An interesting new Tesla Model Y body that appears to be designed for the new structural battery pack has been...

electrek.co

 

[tangible1]

Tesla Model Y body for structural battery pack spotted at Gigafactory Texas

An interesting new Tesla Model Y body that appears to be designed for the new structural battery pack has been...

electrek.co

They're gearing up.

Still can't know WHEN, but we do know WHERE (of course we've known 'where' for almost 600 days now)

 

[soumak]

They're gearing up.

Still can't know WHEN, but we do know WHERE (of course we've known 'where' for almost 600 days now)

I thought they were going to start early in Jan and then pick up production as the year goes on? Or atleast thats what i was hearing.

 

[BGOwner]

I thought they were going to start early in Jan and then pick up production as the year goes on? Or atleast thats what i was hearing.

For the MY yes. One estimate I saw was about 1000 a month for the first couple. But pretty sure @tangible1 is referring to the 4680.

 

[tangible1]

For the MY yes. One estimate I saw was about 1000 a month for the first couple. But pretty sure @tangible1 is referring to the 4680.

It's all wrapped in a ball that is of unknown components.
We've got lots of indicators but few facts.

Fremont right now looks like it's on a light crew for the Holidays.
The Logistics Lot (car transport loading) is only 20% full. Usual EoQ is packed.
And there's construction of a causeway from the chassis fab line building over to the Sprung tents, indicating a new process.
The stacks of Front castings (1000's) appear to be shifting, may be getting ready for use in chassis production finally.

Austin is gearing up for production, but what will come out isn't completely known.
Could be the 2170 backup plan battery pack. Could be 4680.
My guess is 4680, because they've waited this long while making Front castings for months. And because Baglino said 4680 during the last Earnings Call.
Yesterday saw the arrival in Austin of a chassis with no floorpan - an indicator (not absolute) of a void for a structural battery pack.
Yet it's worth noting that the 2170 backup plan pack would fill that same space.

Tesla is tight with information, despite what the blogs' hyperbole would lead you to believe.
All the Elon interviews and such, are future-talk. Little specifics. He's built a cult following in the Media.
They're extremely controlled on what is let out. Kudos to them for that, it's rare.

The documents from Austin indicate a production ramp up from a start of maybe 1000 MY a month (250 a week).
I'm sure the startup goal was 1/122, but that's unlikely if you've been viewing the GigaTexas flyover videos.
They're getting closer but there's no way to know for certain when it starts.

 

[Fctryseald]

I believe that when it comes down to what battery pack they'll start of with, it comes down to two things. Do they have a huge supply of 2170 batteries in stock? Yes, then they'll start with those to get rid of inventory. If no, and the 4680's have passed all tests and our ready to go into production vehicles, then they'll start with 4680 packs. As much as we want 4680's in our cars, Tesla wants them in there even more. $$$

 

[Ron J.]

It is being reported by Electrek (see below) that US built MY's and M3's are now being produced with the upgraded info-entertainment system using a Ryzen CPU and also the 12 battery is being replaced with a 15.5 volt LI battery. Both of these enhancements were previously introduced in MY's produced in China a short time ago.

Tesla launches new AMD chip and 12v Li-ion battery in 2022 Model 3 Model Y vehicles

Tesla has introduced the new AMD Ryzen chip and 12v Li-ion battery in 2022 Model 3 Model Y vehicles. Earlier...

electrek.co

 

[pcmike]

It is being reported by Electrek (see below) that US built MY's and M3's are not being produced with the upgraded info-entertainment system using a Ryzen CPU and also the 12 battery is being replaced with a 15.5 volt LI battery. Both of these enhancements were previously introduced in MY's produced in China a short time ago.

Tesla launches new AMD chip and 12v Li-ion battery in 2022 Model 3 Model Y vehicles

Tesla has introduced the new AMD Ryzen chip and 12v Li-ion battery in 2022 Model 3 Model Y vehicles. Earlier...

electrek.co

NOT or NOW? Don’t play with my emotions!

 

[Ron J.]

NOT or NOW? Don’t play with my emotions!

typo - NOW corrected

 

[tangible1]

It is being reported by Electrek (see below) that US built MY's and M3's are now being produced with the upgraded info-entertainment system using a Ryzen CPU and also the 12 battery is being replaced with a 15.5 volt LI battery. Both of these enhancements were previously introduced in MY's produced in China a short time ago.

Tesla launches new AMD chip and 12v Li-ion battery in 2022 Model 3 Model Y vehicles

Tesla has introduced the new AMD Ryzen chip and 12v Li-ion battery in 2022 Model 3 Model Y vehicles. Earlier...

electrek.co

Maybe someone will check their new M3 MY and confirm / deny the report.
Trust But Verify

 

[Fairchild]

Could be 4680.
My guess is 4680, because they've waited this long while making Front castings for months.

Is that your speculation or did you just get it off of one of those unreliable blogs?

Just substitute TESLA for COVID in this YOUTUBE video and you have your answer.

 

[tangible1]

Is that your speculation or did you just get it off of one of those unreliable blogs?

Just substitute TESLA for COVID in this YOUTUBE video and you have your answer.

Did I state "My GUESS" ????
I even added the observations leading to my guess.

Challenging someone else's wishful thinking (otherwise known as rationalization) ? Oh, my
Of course, blogs demand emotional responses, so reading for comprehension isn't required !!!

 

[Michael Y 2020]

It's all wrapped in a ball that is of unknown components.
We've got lots of indicators but few facts.

Fremont right now looks like it's on a light crew for the Holidays.
The Logistics Lot (car transport loading) is only 20% full. Usual EoQ is packed.
And there's construction of a causeway from the chassis fab line building over to the Sprung tents, indicating a new process.
The stacks of Front castings (1000's) appear to be shifting, may be getting ready for use in chassis production finally.

Austin is gearing up for production, but what will come out isn't completely known.
Could be the 2170 backup plan battery pack. Could be 4680.
My guess is 4680, because they've waited this long while making Front castings for months. And because Baglino said 4680 during the last Earnings Call.
Yesterday saw the arrival in Austin of a chassis with no floorpan - an indicator (not absolute) of a void for a structural battery pack.
Yet it's worth noting that the 2170 backup plan pack would fill that same space.

Tesla is tight with information, despite what the blogs' hyperbole would lead you to believe.
All the Elon interviews and such, are future-talk. Little specifics. He's built a cult following in the Media.
They're extremely controlled on what is let out. Kudos to them for that, it's rare.

The documents from Austin indicate a production ramp up from a start of maybe 1000 MY a month (250 a week).
I'm sure the startup goal was 1/122, but that's unlikely if you've been viewing the GigaTexas flyover videos.
They're getting closer but there's no way to know for certain when it starts.

Enjoy your insights/posts. No if's, buts,(butts?), potentially, possibly, rainbows and butterflies.

 

[kabin]

No one is forcing you into an EV.
If it doesn't suit your needs, just use something else.
Nothing is perfect, there's always one shortcoming or another.
You have choices. that's a good thing.

Yep, that's the benefit for those of us on so many EV waitlists (Ford Lightning, Cybertruck, Rivian, Model Y/X/S, upcoming GM EV pickup,...). Use the waitlist as a benefit and make the best choice available at the time.

 

[kabin]

Is that your speculation or did you just get it off of one of those unreliable blogs?

Just substitute TESLA for COVID in this YOUTUBE video and you have your answer.

Ha, very true. In this case, anyone knowing anything isn't talking leaving the rest to blather on.

 

[Ron J.]

It's starting to look more likely that Tesla Fremont will be producing MY's that have the same features, in general at a given point in time, as will be on the MY's coming out of GigaTexas. This may include having both front and rear giga-castings, structural battery pack, and the many small individual new features such as the Ryzen CPUs, LI 12v battery, rear cargo mat and security cover, etc.