Model Y - Gigafactory Texas Production

[tangible1]

Tesla clearly is maximizing production regardless. It seems like to me they prefer making the P over the LR... that they have a greater profit margin or something. If that's not the case, why on Earth would the not bump out the P delivery date to produce some LR versions sooner? Why produce Ps you can't give away when you can make the LR instead?

Using the 4680 for the P is the obvious choice given its smaller production run and will make the car an even better value. Also, using 4680s on the P frees up more 2170 for the LR... which as you've already said is sold out 6+ months. Clearly that's the one vehicle they don't need to change....

Also, atm the MYP is outclassed performance wise by its German ICE counterparts... that's not the case for the M3P. Lowering the weight and perhaps bumping the power output a hair should help remedy this and make it the bargain performance vehicle I've come to expect from Teslas.

Outclassed by what in it's price range? I'm no Tesla fanboi, but I don't see that.
Outclassed by products that cannot be delivered in any volume? How is that a threat?

I think Tesla production planners clearly missed the mix on MYP vs MYLR right now, and probably just want to get revenue on what they have in the pipe..
I don't think there's a supplier issue....there are only minor differences between the P and the LR - springs, rear motor, wheels, a spoiler......battery packs are same.

There is nothing obvious about what Tesla will do in the near term.
They've made clear only what end goals they have, and the timeline to achieve it is.....Elon time.

IMHO. YMMV

 

[tangible1]

If they have enough 2170 cell production to allow Texas to start production with and catch up with the backlog all the while stockpiling 4680 cells that makes the most sense. And they will have time to figure out what to do with 4680 and if it is a new model that they need to start selling.

Tesla has enough 2170 to do anything they want.
But staying with 2170 isn't as profitable as going to 4680, for which they keep the margins. And begin to amortize their production investments.

While we're both speculating, it all hinges on:
- what the real status on 4680 yields are at Kato Road, and
- qualifying/certification of new battery packs, be they 2170 or 4680 based, for the new chassis that utilizes both F+R magacasts.

There's really too many variables and unknowns to make any pronouncements.

Hold on, it's gonna be a wild ride in January.

 

[Sludog]

I always thought that Tesla would start using the 4680 cells in their flagship vehicles Models X and S first. This way the could pack those vehicles with as many cells needed to reach the mythical 500 mile range.

 

[tangible1]

I always thought that Tesla would start using the 4680 cells in their flagship vehicles Models X and S first. This way the could pack those vehicles with as many cells needed to reach the mythical 500 mile range.

Both the MS and MX had an engineering refresh for the 2021 model year. They stayed with 18650 batteries.
The 4680's weren't available when the product update cycle came around, and the additional margin from the 4680 isn't necessary.
Tesla makes plenty of profit margin on the MS and MX, and their range remains class-leading.
There are no competitors that can deliver anything in sufficient volume to make a dent.

However, the M3 and MY need to have as much cost reduced as possible to get the volume up.
That is where 4680 has been targeted initially.

4680 is also targeted to the CT and Semi, but for different reasons.
In those, the most energy density possible is required.
They're big, and require the ability pull big loads.

 

[Mrbrock]

Both the MS and MX had an engineering refresh for the 2021 model year. They stayed with 18650 batteries.
The 4680's weren't available when the product update cycle came around, and the additional margin from the 4680 isn't necessary.
Tesla makes plenty of profit margin on the MS and MX, and their range remains class-leading.
There are no competitors that can deliver anything in sufficient volume to make a dent.

However, the M3 and MY need to have as much cost reduced as possible to get the volume up.
That is where 4680 has been targeted initially.

4680 is also targeted to the CT and Semi, but for different reasons.
In those, the most energy density possible is required.
They're big, and require the ability pull big loads.

Which I totally agree with regarding cost savings and the MY. However, most people on this forum think that Tesla will switch to 4680 and keep the same amount of cells volumetric wise and take the LR MY from 330 miles to 400+ with the same orders and pricing they have currently placed. And they don’t seem to understand how irresponsible this is from a business standpoint.

If Austin does start with 4680 MY, it’ll be with the same battery capacity (~80kwh +/-) which means less cells, less weight, less cost. However, I still dont think they’d do this until they can start the same production at Fremont so they don’t have two different vehicles being produced and sold to people at the same price who ordered the same vehicle.

 

[pepperoni]

Outclassed by what in it's price range? I'm no Tesla fanboi, but I don't see that.

Seriously man? Take a look at your posts. You are the ultimate Tesla fanboi.

 

[Mrbrock]

Outclassed by what in it's price range? I'm no Tesla fanboi, but I don't see that.
Outclassed by products that cannot be delivered in any volume? How is that a threat?

I think Tesla production planners clearly missed the mix on MYP vs MYLR right now, and probably just want to get revenue on what they have in the pipe..
I don't think there's a supplier issue....there are only minor differences between the P and the LR - springs, rear motor, wheels, a spoiler......battery packs are same.

There is nothing obvious about what Tesla will do in the near term.
They've made clear only what end goals they have, and the timeline to achieve it is.....Elon time.

IMHO. YMMV

Spoiler? They are apparently out of those currently . Maybe that’s why they are trying to clear them out since they are essentially lowered LR MY right now.

 

[tangible1]

Seriously man? Take a look at your posts. You are the ultimate Tesla fanboi.

You might find I spend much of my posting by tamping down magical, wishful thinking of fanbois.

While I respect Tesla, and I do believe they offer leading solutions right now, they're not the wonderful Pied Pipers some find them to be.

 

[tangible1]

Which I totally agree with regarding cost savings and the MY. However, most people on this forum think that Tesla will switch to 4680 and keep the same amount of cells volumetric wise and take the LR MY from 330 miles to 400+ with the same orders and pricing they have currently placed. And they don’t seem to understand how irresponsible this is from a business standpoint.

If Austin does start with 4680 MY, it’ll be with the same battery capacity (~80kwh +/-) which means less cells, less weight, less cost. However, I still dont think they’d do this until they can start the same production at Fremont so they don’t have two different vehicles being produced and sold to people at the same price who ordered the same vehicle.

Paragraph one: I disagree with those 'most people'. I see no financial or market benefit to Tesla by adding range at this time, for the next year at least.
There's no competitor that can deliver anything in volume, although the Media blogs would have us believe otherwise.
Tesla needs the most profit they can get from each car. They have two new factories and a battery facility to pay off. And a price point to get big volume.

Paragraph two: full agreement.

While I think both Fremont and Austin are poised to begin 4680 MY cars, there's no hard evidence - only inference from observation.
IMHO:
Tesla could have begun production on the new MY chassis using a 2170 battery pack months ago. Certainly at Fremont.
They chose to wait for 4680, because just doing 2170 wouldn't save sufficient money to matter. It was always a backup plan.
Now Austin is ready, and they can do it all at once, at both Fremont and Austin.

So I agree with Paragraph two - logistics matter.

 

[Stook02ss]

Outclassed by what in it's price range? I'm no Tesla fanboi, but I don't see that.
Outclassed by products that cannot be delivered in any volume? How is that a threat?

I think Tesla production planners clearly missed the mix on MYP vs MYLR right now, and probably just want to get revenue on what they have in the pipe..
I don't think there's a supplier issue....there are only minor differences between the P and the LR - springs, rear motor, wheels, a spoiler......battery packs are same.

There is nothing obvious about what Tesla will do in the near term.
They've made clear only what end goals they have, and the timeline to achieve it is.....Elon time.

IMHO. YMMV

X4M is much faster, handles better and brakes better. I understand it taking the crown in handling and braking (its lighter), but with a 0-60 of 3.3 and 1/4 of 11.6, it absolutely crushes the MYP in straight line performance. It crushes it... and for only about 10k more (a bargain when you consider the handling, braking and luxury).

This just isn't the case with the BMW M3. For over 15k more the base BMW M3 is slower than the M3P. The upgraded M3, for 25-35k more, is roughly the same as the M3P... and the M3P has a track option. It can actually handle lol.

The MYP needs the 4680 in order to up its game. It's clear you aren't up to date on these things... which is fine since I'm guessing you aren't in the market for a MYP. I and others however are... and for me it'd be nice to at least match Germany's ICE offerings in acceleration like the rest of the Tesla lineup.

BMW X4 M and X3 M Are Insanely Quick

The Bavarian siblings are two of the quickest SUVs we've ever tested.

www.caranddriver.com

 

[CRIMSON_DATE]

Which I totally agree with regarding cost savings and the MY. However, most people on this forum think that Tesla will switch to 4680 and keep the same amount of cells volumetric wise and take the LR MY from 330 miles to 400+ with the same orders and pricing they have currently placed. And they don’t seem to understand how irresponsible this is from a business standpoint.

If Austin does start with 4680 MY, it’ll be with the same battery capacity (~80kwh +/-) which means less cells, less weight, less cost. However, I still dont think they’d do this until they can start the same production at Fremont so they don’t have two different vehicles being produced and sold to people at the same price who ordered the same vehicle.

The 4680 is suppose to be 30% cheaper to produce and at the same time have 30% more efficiency . Elon had already mentioned that he expects the Y to gain about 16% range and shed about 400 Pounds so it looks like they may be taking a middle of the road route. Then you are looking at a ligher Y with about 350-380 mile range.

 

[advocate8]

Outclassed by what in it's price range? I'm no Tesla fanboi, but I don't see that.
Outclassed by products that cannot be delivered in any volume? How is that a threat?

I think Tesla production planners clearly missed the mix on MYP vs MYLR right now, and probably just want to get revenue on what they have in the pipe..
I don't think there's a supplier issue....there are only minor differences between the P and the LR - springs, rear motor, wheels, a spoiler......battery packs are same.

There is nothing obvious about what Tesla will do in the near term.
They've made clear only what end goals they have, and the timeline to achieve it is.....Elon time.

IMHO. YMMV

much wishful speculation by people with MYPs on order. Smart money says it won’t happen at all until summer.

 

[advocate8]

The 4680 is suppose to be 30% cheaper to produce and at the same time have 30% more efficiency . Elon had already mentioned that he expects the Y to gain about 16% range and shed about 400 Pounds so it looks like they may be taking a middle of the road route. Then you are looking at a ligher Y with about 350-380 mile range.

Tesla absolutely will increase the car’s range. The only question is how much. Might just be 10 miles EPA, might be a lot.

 

[kabin]

Tesla increases max range when possible even when it's just a few miles. There's no logical reason for Tesla to keep the same max range with the 4680.

With a waiting list order system there will always be some who get a break when pricing increases but it's a double edge sword that can work against you when prices fall. And Tesla already makes a killing on vehicle sales pricing today.

I would be surprised if Fremont and Austin didn't start building 4680 equipped 2022 Model Ys around the same time.

Hopefully we learn more in a week or so after giga austin starts.

 

[pummax]

I watch Joe’s videos every few days. I find his the best of them all. Unfortunately, I don’t expect to see the first VIN for at least 6 weeks, if all goes well. They just applied for regulatory approval for start internet Dec 31.

Toronto : Model Y Delivery Jan 20-Feb 17

 

[pummax]

Toronto : Model Y Delivery Jan 20-Feb 17, Keep you posted

 

[Firocity]

Hoping Tesla prioritizes Austin customers with the first Giga Texas builds. It would only make sense for QA purposes .

 

[txguy]

Hoping Tesla prioritizes Austin customers with the first Giga Texas builds. It would only make sense for QA purposes .

Doesn't matter. They can't sell cars directly in TX.Your car will take a detour before comes back to Austin.

 

[Mrbrock]

Tesla increases max range when possible even when it's just a few miles. There's no logical reason for Tesla to keep the same max range with the 4680.

With a waiting list order system there will always be some who get a break when pricing increases but it's a double edge sword that can work against you when prices fall. And Tesla already makes a killing on vehicle sales pricing today.

I would be surprised if Fremont and Austin didn't start building 4680 equipped 2022 Model Ys around the same time.

Hopefully we learn more in a week or so after giga austin starts.

Those few miles gained are through software updates and tricking the EPA testing process (yes it’s legal but this gets these increases without changing anything fundamental with the car). No reason to keep the same max but no reason to increase either. The amount of current orders shows people are happy with range. Would they be willing to pay more for more range? Of course, that is why a more expensive longer range model will come out at some point. If they have cost and weight savings they can put a 70kwh pack in and get the same range if the weight were the same. The weight savings would increase range a bit but would be similar to rangenlost by having passengers. 340-345. This also makes their finite battery components go farther which is where the biggest constraint over time will be. Why waste it on 500 mile range that the vast majority of people will never need?

It will be interesting to see how they handle the in state customers. The minimum would be to ship them all to a state where they have a sales center that allows direct sales and sell them from there. Lots of wasted truck travel time.

 

[Stook02ss]

The 4680 is suppose to be 30% cheaper to produce and at the same time have 30% more efficiency . Elon had already mentioned that he expects the Y to gain about 16% range and shed about 400 Pounds so it looks like they may be taking a middle of the road route. Then you are looking at a ligher Y with about 350-380 mile range.

Those few miles gained are through software updates and tricking the EPA testing process (yes it’s legal but this gets these increases without changing anything fundamental with the car). No reason to keep the same max but no reason to increase either. The amount of current orders shows people are happy with range. Would they be willing to pay more for more range? Of course, that is why a more expensive longer range model will come out at some point. If they have cost and weight savings they can put a 70kwh pack in and get the same range if the weight were the same. The weight savings would increase range a bit but would be similar to rangenlost by having passengers. 340-345. This also makes their finite battery components go farther which is where the biggest constraint over time will be. Why waste it on 500 mile range that the vast majority of people will never need?

It will be interesting to see how they handle the in state customers. The minimum would be to ship them all to a state where they have a sales center that allows direct sales and sell them from there. Lots of wasted truck travel time.

They already have an ability to increase range, or that's what the evidence suggests. They've only increased MY range by what... 3% this year? They upped the battery capacity by 10%. That's a 7% increase... so over 20 miles.

I think that they will absolutely stick with the same pack size though, they'll want to build in capacity to expand in the near future.

My guess is 2022 sees the MY LR range go to 350+... by the end of 2023 it goes to 375+. That said, I think the Model Y P gets the first bump... I'm convinced they'll use the 4680 in it first and as a result you'll see it get a performance bump across the board.

It's fun to speculate.. but that's all it is for now. I hope I remember this thread in 3-6 months lol.