Model Y - Gigafactory Texas Production

[pepperoni]

Interesting point. I've heard 1-2 month ago that Austin will start producing MYP first. Maybe that is the reason? Otherwise, you are right, they would be selling 2 versions of the same MY version. This would bring cancellations and disappoint those who receive "lesser" version. However, considering todays market Tesla may not care.

I would be really irritated if I received the “lesser” version. Thankfully I live about 10 miles from the Fremont factory, which is a well tuned machine cranking out Ys by the hundreds of thousands. Mr Musk has said that their biggest QC issues occur when they are scaling up production, which is exactly what will be happening in Austin over the next few months. I may be paraphrasing.

 

[LeafNY]

And that’s what I keep pointing out. Use Tesla as the model of what Tesla will do.

Shanghai timeline:
In late Oct 2019 Tesla announced it had begun full trial production from stamping to GA to paint of Model 3s. Musk shared pictures of operating assembly lines with multiple cars.

In late Dec 2019 they gave their first cars to employees to drive in public.

In early January 2020 was the first public delivery.

Austin is not even at the Oct 2019 level yet. I expect end of January (26th is likely) Tesla to make a similar “full test production has started” with a by end of Q1 delivery target.

No where near any of these rumors of vloggers or bloggers.

I thought Austin started pre production testing back in August. As someone with no manufacturing experience it seemed like they potentially weren’t that far from full trial production based on the photo of an assembled car. Even from where they were in August you don’t think Austin is at the Oct 2019 level yet? (Genuine question, not arguing against your point)

Tesla Model Y pre-production units start rolling out in Giga Texas

When Gigafactory Texas was starting its construction, officials in the area started to fondly describe the project’s pace as the “Speed of Elon” on account of its rapid progress. This “Speed of Elon” seems to have never let up since Giga Texas broke ground about 13 months ago as the first image...

www.google.com

 

[tangible1]

I thought Austin started pre production testing back in August. As someone with no manufacturing experience it seemed like they potentially weren’t that far from full trial production based on the photo of an assembled car. Even from where they were in August you don’t think Austin is at the Oct 2019 level yet? (Genuine question, not arguing against your point)

Tesla Model Y pre-production units start rolling out in Giga Texas

When Gigafactory Texas was starting its construction, officials in the area started to fondly describe the project’s pace as the “Speed of Elon” on account of its rapid progress. This “Speed of Elon” seems to have never let up since Giga Texas broke ground about 13 months ago as the first image...

www.google.com

Unfortunately, blogs take on a life of their own, and become captive to wishful and magical thinking.
Further, they're driven by clickbait fisherman, given to hyperbole to get clicks and make money.

There were 3 body-in-white chassis shipped to Austin from Fremont.
They were used to validate the paint shop (they got painted) and a couple robot processes. I wouldn't even say 'calibrate'.
No battery pack or motors were installed.

If you look at the photos from that time, you will see that the wheel gaps are extreme - there's no weight in the chassis.
2 of the 3 chassis were subsequently scrapped and recycled. One currently hangs from the ceiling in the GA section of GigaTexas above the future main entrance.
Photographic evidence for it all, including the scrapping of 2.

As an aside, 13 similar chassis were shipped to Berlin about the same time, arriving of course slightly later.
Again, validation chassis. Several were used as the static demo pieces on display during the Berlin-Fest.

 

[Budshark]

I thought Austin started pre production testing back in August. As someone with no manufacturing experience it seemed like they potentially weren’t that far from full trial production based on the photo of an assembled car. Even from where they were in August you don’t think Austin is at the Oct 2019 level yet? (Genuine question, not arguing against your point)

Tesla Model Y pre-production units start rolling out in Giga Texas

When Gigafactory Texas was starting its construction, officials in the area started to fondly describe the project’s pace as the “Speed of Elon” on account of its rapid progress. This “Speed of Elon” seems to have never let up since Giga Texas broke ground about 13 months ago as the first image...

www.google.com

Tesla never stated that was a full preproduction unit. A lot of times you run components through each step to validate positioning, alignment, etc. it doesn’t mean that car actually is a full Austin production unit. A picture of a finished car all nice and clean and perfect doesn’t mean it came out of that line. I don’t even think Tesla had a paint shop functional to test with back in August so how’d it get painted.

There has been no evidence or signs that Tesla is actually running pre production. And since that was way back in August, they either have hit MAJOR production issues that has them behind schedule (absolutely no signs of that) or that post claiming to be a preproduction unit is not actually what it claims to be (SHOCKER!!)

 

[samori01]

Exactly, they have been operating the production equipment since September when the factory was still under heavy construction. They can walk and chew gum at the same time. They do not need the factory to be 100% complete to start producing cars. Perhaps other manufacturers would wait for a factory to be fully built however, most don't have a 6-9 month wait for their products.

My question wasn’t about Austin starting but adding the 4680s. I still don’t expect significant production of MYs until at least Q2, but would love to be wrong about that. But to go off of compare Tesla with Tesla, we all have to admit there have been quality issues, which to me means they have to test and test to make sure they don’t have quality issues with the brand new batteries they are making.

 

[CRIMSON_DATE]

I Know how much tangible1 respects this guy so I could nto resist.

​

 

[tangible1]

I Know how much tangible1 respects this guy so I could nto resist.

​

Yeah, I get it.....pull my chain!
The guy slobbers over his words so bad he cannot even pronounce 'January', says 'June', when talking about the upcoming Q4 Earnings Call.

BTW the chassis pictured was shipped in from Fremont to Austin on a curtain trailer (Wednesday I think), which Tegtmeyer fully documented.
But Armen waxed on about 'made in Austin'. He says Tegtmeyer confirmed things, but clearly Armen NEVER spoke with Joe.
Then he wants us to believe that Austin will be making 4680 batteries 'shortly' although he does explain that batteries will initially come from Kato Road.

I mean, the guy's a mess.
How can anyone even stand to listen to his gibberish talk for 12 minutes.

OK, I admit it, the guy rubs me sideways. He's one of those people that is a cancer on the internet.

 

[Mrbrock]

Fake News! Maybe he can have a certain guest host spew falsehoods

 

[cholla]

I got totally F'd with my VIN today.

That is, I got a VIN that is coming from Fremont - with an "F" in the 11th digit - and not the "A" I thought might be a remote possibility, especially if my VIN was pushed back a few more weeks. I'm totally excited and completed all my delivery tasks - just awaiting a delivery appointment. I knew it wasn't likely, but was still hoping that maybe I'd wind up with an early Austin build with 4680s, ventilated seats, and who knows what else. But my price is $6500 below current pricing so I'm stoked. And my texts with the SA confirmed the AMD chip. EDD went from Jan 17- Jan 27 before VIN assignment and completion of tasks, to Jan 16 - Jan 22 - does that mean my car is here in Arizona? Or on the truck? How long does it take to get a delivery appointment offered?


MYLR, blue/black/5 seater/tow, OD 5.17.21; on hold early Sept-early Dec

 

[pcmike]

I got totally F'd with my VIN today.

That is, I got a VIN that is coming from Fremont - with an "F" in the 11th digit - and not the "A" I thought might be a remote possibility, especially if my VIN was pushed back a few more weeks. I'm totally excited and completed all my delivery tasks - just awaiting a delivery appointment. I knew it wasn't likely, but was still hoping that maybe I'd wind up with an early Austin build with 4680s, ventilated seats, and who knows what else. But my price is $6500 below current pricing so I'm stoked. And my texts with the SA confirmed the AMD chip. EDD went from Jan 17- Jan 27 before VIN assignment and completion of tasks, to Jan 16 - Jan 22 - does that mean my car is here in Arizona? Or on the truck? How long does it take to get a delivery appointment offered?


MYLR, blue/black/5 seater/tow, OD 5.17.21; on hold early Sept-early Dec

You got my build, except I also got inductions. My EDD just changed to 1/31-2/14. Getting closer

 

[BGOwner]

I got totally F'd with my VIN today.

That is, I got a VIN that is coming from Fremont - with an "F" in the 11th digit - and not the "A" I thought might be a remote possibility, especially if my VIN was pushed back a few more weeks. I'm totally excited and completed all my delivery tasks - just awaiting a delivery appointment. I knew it wasn't likely, but was still hoping that maybe I'd wind up with an early Austin build with 4680s, ventilated seats, and who knows what else. But my price is $6500 below current pricing so I'm stoked. And my texts with the SA confirmed the AMD chip. EDD went from Jan 17- Jan 27 before VIN assignment and completion of tasks, to Jan 16 - Jan 22 - does that mean my car is here in Arizona? Or on the truck? How long does it take to get a delivery appointment offered?


MYLR, blue/black/5 seater/tow, OD 5.17.21; on hold early Sept-early Dec

Don’t think there was any chance of you getting an Austin MY. Not if you live in AZ. Austin will be shipping east.

 

[rwiegand]

I guess that with a November EDD I should be taking solace in thinking that I stand a real chance of getting an Austin vehicle with all the goodies. OTOH, by then the Next Big Thing will be on the horizon and I can be disappointed by not getting that.

Of course I'm still using my iPhone 6 and driving a 15 year old Mini so pretty happy not being at the bleeding edge. Problem is the Mini (which I dearly love, going to miss that 6-speed) has so many things in need of repair right now I may be walking before summer.

 

[Sludog]

I guess that with a November EDD I should be taking solace in thinking that I stand a real chance of getting an Austin vehicle with all the goodies. OTOH, by then the Next Big Thing will be on the horizon and I can be disappointed by not getting that.

Of course I'm still using my iPhone 6 and driving a 15 year old Mini so pretty happy not being at the bleeding edge. Problem is the Mini (which I dearly love, going to miss that 6-speed) has so many things in need of repair right now I may be walking before summer.

Your 15 year old mini still running could be a world record. Call Guinness book.

 

[tangible1]

I guess that with a November EDD I should be taking solace in thinking that I stand a real chance of getting an Austin vehicle with all the goodies. OTOH, by then the Next Big Thing will be on the horizon and I can be disappointed by not getting that.

Of course I'm still using my iPhone 6 and driving a 15 year old Mini so pretty happy not being at the bleeding edge. Problem is the Mini (which I dearly love, going to miss that 6-speed) has so many things in need of repair right now I may be walking before summer.

The Mini might make a good winter car for bounciong off the snowbanks in Boston ;-)

Been there, done that myself !!

 

[Ron J.]

My order for a MY-LR had been in "June Jail" for an EDD for the past 6+ weeks but that changed to 5-31 March as of this morning. Several other forum members with MYs on orders have very recently also got out of June Jail. Perhaps (just speculation) this is an indication that Tesla is getting their production and delivery schedules updated to reflect: (1) expected startup and ramp-up estimates for Austin production and (2) any Fremont downtime for updates to the MY production line to bring their MYs to the same configuration as will be produced in Austin.

As I reported earlier. my local Tesla sales/service/delivery center has been told to expect a new MY demo vehicle to reach them on 1/24 (take that exact date "as soon as") and it will be from Austin. Perhaps this is a clue that they expect Austin production to begin this week. If that is the case, then I would expect Fremont to upgrade their MY production to match the configuration of the MYs coming out of Austin. In any case, the next couple of weeks should be interesting, in terms of Tesla news.

 

[tangible1]

My order for a MY-LR had been in "June Jail" for an EDD for the past 6+ weeks but that changed to 5-31 March as of this morning. Several other forum members with MYs on orders have very recently go of June Jail. Perhaps (just speculation) is an indication that Tesla is getting their production and delivery schedules updated to reflect: (1) expected startup and ramp-up estimates for Austin production and (2) any Fremont downtime for updates to the MY production line to bring their MYs to the same configuration as will be produced in Austin.

As I reported earlier. my local Tesla sales/service/delivery center has been told to expect a new MY demo vehicle to reach them on 1/24 and it will be from Austin. Perhaps this is a clue that they expect Austin production to begin this week. If that is the case, then I would expect Fremont to upgrade their MY production to match the configuration of the MYs coming out of Austin.

when the Fremont stockpile of Front Megacasts seen on the drone flyovers starts to shuffle and shrink, you'll know both factories are working on the new chassis.
Until then, and until there's a real one in customer hands, no one outside Tesla knows when it will happen.

You can, however, expect the Blogs to screech mightily at another chance for clickbait rewards.

 

[CRIMSON_DATE]

My order for a MY-LR had been in "June Jail" for an EDD for the past 6+ weeks but that changed to 5-31 March as of this morning. Several other forum members with MYs on orders have very recently also got out of June Jail. Perhaps (just speculation) this is an indication that Tesla is getting their production and delivery schedules updated to reflect: (1) expected startup and ramp-up estimates for Austin production and (2) any Fremont downtime for updates to the MY production line to bring their MYs to the same configuration as will be produced in Austin.

As I reported earlier. my local Tesla sales/service/delivery center has been told to expect a new MY demo vehicle to reach them on 1/24 (take that exact date "as soon as") and it will be from Austin. Perhaps this is a clue that they expect Austin production to begin this week. If that is the case, then I would expect Fremont to upgrade their MY production to match the configuration of the MYs coming out of Austin. In any case, the next couple of weeks should be interesting, in terms of Tesla news.

I am still locked to June but it looks like they are working themselves east , a bunch of florida orders getting real ranges so I expect i'll get something this coming week.

 

[Ron J.]

I am still locked to June but it looks like they are working themselves east , a bunch of florida orders getting real ranges so I expect i'll get something this coming week.

You will probably get an updated EDD soon.

 

[kabin]

I wouldn't be surprised if the waitlist softens up a bit with this new found inflation, rising interest rates, and the latest consumer sentiment at a 10 year low.

 

[Ron J.]

when the Fremont stockpile of Front Megacasts seen on the drone flyovers starts to shuffle and shrink, you'll know both factories are working on the new chassis.
Until then, and until there's a real one in customer hands, no one outside Tesla knows when it will happen.

You can, however, expect the Blogs to screech mightily at another chance for clickbait rewards.

I agree we need to keep an eye on what is happening at Fremont. The latest drone flyover I have found is shown below: