Model Y - Gigafactory Texas Production

[Quagmire2]

I don't know about that. That would be a pretty big deal that the media would run with, one version has upgradable range while another version does not... sold simultaneously? Even if the number was low like you imply such as 30/70 or 20/80 in terms of informed versus uninformed, that's still a large number of buyers that wouldn't make sense for Tesla to gamble with.

Upgradeable range? Where did this baseless rumor start? The idea that Tesla could sell a locked version of the 4680 Y to keep parity with Fremont 2170 Y and then later pay more money to unlock more range?

How did that “wishlist” item that this thread created get mixed into the “inferior” talk?

Not gonna happen. A range parity 4680 Y will simply have a smaller battery. No upgrades to be had.

 

[H4V0C]

I don't know about that. That would be a pretty big deal that the media would run with, one version has upgradable range while another version does not... sold simultaneously? Even if the number was low like you imply such as 30/70 or 20/80 in terms of informed versus uninformed, that's still a large number of buyers that wouldn't make sense for Tesla to gamble with.

The media would run with what? "Tesla Model Y owners up in arms after hundreds tens were delivered a vehicle with exactly the range they were promised at time of purchase."

 

[Stook02ss]

Upgradeable range? Where did this baseless rumor start? The idea that Tesla could sell a locked version of the 4680 Y to keep parity with Fremont 2170 Y and then later pay more money to unlock more range?

How did that “wishlist” item that this thread created get mixed into the “inferior” talk?

Not gonna happen. A range parity 4680 Y will simply have a smaller battery. No upgrades to be had.

Range aside, unless they gimp the motors, any 4680 Model Y with the same range as a 2170 is going to be noticeably faster, not mention brake and handle better.

 

[leaftoy]

The media would run with what? "Tesla Model Y owners up in arms after hundreds tens were delivered a vehicle with exactly the range they were promised at time of purchase."

Time of purchase is the time of delivery. That's when money (except for the order fee) and goods exchange hands.

Also, is everyone always getting the car promised at ordering time? Certain features get dropped with no recourse other than cancelling the order and losing the order fee.

 

[DrGriz]

Time of purchase is the time of delivery. That's when money (except for the order fee) and goods exchange hands.

Also, is everyone always getting the car promised at ordering time? Certain features get dropped with no recourse other than cancelling the order and losing the order fee.

Like everyone who ordered a car with radar last spring?

 

[Smoot]

Time of purchase is the time of delivery. That's when money (except for the order fee) and goods exchange hands.

Also, is everyone always getting the car promised at ordering time? Certain features get dropped with no recourse other than cancelling the order and losing the order fee.

Right, and if the car is not what you want at the time of purchase, you can reject it.

Tesla is doing some shady things with adding and removing features willy nilly, but as the consumer you still have the power to accept the car or not. I would say that Tesla needs to immediately bring back the refundable deposit.

This is all assuming one version of events that has not yet happened. Only time will tell who wins and who loses.

 

[CRIMSON_DATE]

Time of purchase is the time of delivery. That's when money (except for the order fee) and goods exchange hands.

Also, is everyone always getting the car promised at ordering time? Certain features get dropped with no recourse other than cancelling the order and losing the order fee.

If they make any changes to the car you ordered that removes or lessens something then they ask you to "Accept" the changes. If you don't the order is canceled and your Fee will be returned . They can't keep an order fee for an order they did not fulfill.

 

[WhiteWi]

I think what they will do is build bunch of Y’s in different configs at Austin until they have enough sitting and producing good amounts a week and then they will do stop production at Fremont to switch to new castings and batteries. So technically Austin will start deliveries of new Y after Fremont shut down.

 

[NYMY]

I think what they will do is build bunch of Y’s in different configs at Austin until they have enough sitting and producing good amounts a week and then they will do stop production at Fremont to switch to new castings and batteries. So technically Austin will start deliveries of new Y after Fremont shut down.

Something like this could be reasonable, but the timing will be hard! Especially if they do this near end of quarter so Fremont can get its quarter in and Austin can be operating normally by then.

While they could be feature equivalent (there are good arguments!) I think there will be a range increase. If they were spec parity I think they’d have said so, and they’ve been touting range increase for a long time (as well as costs) as a benefit of 4680. So I’m hoping for a bump to 360 or 365, but of course we will see at the EOQ…

 

[CRIMSON_DATE]

I think what they will do is build bunch of Y’s in different configs at Austin until they have enough sitting and producing good amounts a week and then they will do stop production at Fremont to switch to new castings and batteries. So technically Austin will start deliveries of new Y after Fremont shut down.

I don't believe that it ever makes sense to create a pool of cars that just sit there waiting while you have a 6+ month backlog . I can see a pool of cars Austin increasing whiile they wait for certification but as soon as they can those cars will start leaving with the only impediment being a lack of transport.

 

[WhiteWi]

I don't believe that it ever makes sense to create a pool of cars that just sit there waiting while you have a 6+ month backlog . I can see a pool of cars Austin increasing whiile they wait for certification but as soon as they can those cars will start leaving with the only impediment being a lack of transport.

I guess we will see soon enough

 

[CRIMSON_DATE]

I guess we will see soon enough

If Tesla stops or will stop shipments of MY's from Fremont to the East coast after Austin is certified then I can see the supply of MY's start to pile up at Fremont . This could give them enough time to retrofit the MY line and still make MY deliveries to the Western US and save all that transport cost to the east.

 

[Stook02ss]

I guess we will see soon enough

Something like this could be reasonable, but the timing will be hard! Especially if they do this near end of quarter so Fremont can get its quarter in and Austin can be operating normally by then.

While they could be feature equivalent (there are good arguments!) I think there will be a range increase. If they were spec parity I think they’d have said so, and they’ve been touting range increase for a long time (as well as costs) as a benefit of 4680. So I’m hoping for a bump to 360 or 365, but of course we will see at the EOQ…

I'd like to know how many Model Y LR and Model Y P are being built and ordered each week right now. So 4 different data points. It certainly seems like they are prioritizing MYP construction (at least with respect to the whole), perhaps since they make more on them, I'm not sure.

I think it'd be interesting to compare the initial output of Model Ys in Austin with each of the production figures described above - it might give a good indicator of which model they plan to build there first. The MYP lover in me wants to believe they'll switch those to Austin since the numbers required are lower and they can immediately advertise improved acceleration, braking and handling of their top-end Model Y variant. At the same time though, I look at the backlog of MYLR orders and I can't help but think 'Maybe they plan to almost completely shutdown MYLR production for a short transitory period, after which they'll be making LR in Austin.... all the while continuing to pump out MYP in Freemont, hence the shorter EDD atm'.

 

[WhiteWi]

If Tesla stops or will stop shipments of MY's from Fremont to the East coast after Austin is certified then I can see the supply of MY's start to pile up at Fremont . This could give them enough time to retrofit the MY line and still make MY deliveries to the Western US and save all that transport cost to the east.

I am not arguing with you. Anything is possible. I have Model Y EDD 24Feb/March and will take delivery no matter where it was made, what batteries it has and etc. Sold my S back in November and we have only Model 3 to get us around for now. Can’t wait to get our Seven seater Y.

 

[thinktwice]

Upgradeable range? Where did this baseless rumor start? The idea that Tesla could sell a locked version of the 4680 Y to keep parity with Fremont 2170 Y and then later pay more money to unlock more range?

How did that “wishlist” item that this thread created get mixed into the “inferior” talk?

Not gonna happen. A range parity 4680 Y will simply have a smaller battery. No upgrades to be had.

Ummm yeah. That was the basis of the comment I was responding to. I agree.

 

[thinktwice]

The media would run with what? "Tesla Model Y owners up in arms after hundreds tens were delivered a vehicle with exactly the range they were promised at time of purchase."

"One version has upgradable range while another version does not... sold simultaneously"

Anyway, this is a dumb topic to continue discussing because it'd never happen. I was just responding to someone else's comment.

 

[bluenycom]

I think what they will do is build bunch of Y’s in different configs at Austin until they have enough sitting and producing good amounts a week and then they will do stop production at Fremont to switch to new castings and batteries. So technically Austin will start deliveries of new Y after Fremont shut down.

To catch up the production rate of Fremont will take a while. Look at recently released date from Tesla. Fremont is STILL ahead of Shanghai in term of number of vehicles produced. Shanghai started production in Dec 2019! People don't realize how hard it is to start production from nothing to max capacity. I am sure Tesla has learned many things since Fremont and Shanghai, but it will certainly take more than a few months to reach max production.

 

[Budshark]

So anyone see an Austin demo car yet?

Steady as she goes. February the Austin model Y will see its shadow as they begin small accumulation outside the factory. Internal delivers by mid month. Kick off event either February or mid-March if they time with customer deliveries.

Think 200 or less in Q1. Stretch goal would be a couple hundred more. April ramps up. By June in full swing. If you want a guaranteed Austin MY ordering MYLR now is safe. MYP? Not yet… gotta wait a month.

 

[CRIMSON_DATE]

I'd like to know how many Model Y LR and Model Y P are being built and ordered each week right now. So 4 different data points. It certainly seems like they are prioritizing MYP construction (at least with respect to the whole), perhaps since they make more on them, I'm not sure.

No they don't make more MYP. That 6+ month Backlog is all MYLR.

Tesla Prioritizes addons that increase their profit margins . If you get a plane jane MY witrh 19" they make you wait almost a year, but if you pay for ANY option they shave off 4 months . If you go furthur and buy a MYP they shave off 9 months .

White LR (BLK INT- no TOW) With 19" DEC
White LR (BLK INT- no TOW) WIth 20" Aug
White LR (wht INT- no TOW) With 19" AUG
White LR (BLK INT-yes TOW) With 19" AUG
RED LR (BLK INT- no TOW) With 19" AUG

They are basically saying pay for a more expensive car and you can get it faster. There used to be a 10K difference between the Y and the LR , in SEP it was 7k and today it is 5K . With the P the difference in $$ gets you get the the lower/stiffer suspention, Spoiler, red brakes, chrome pedals and Matrix headlights and the software unlock of the speed . THE MYLR is basically the same car without the unlocked software and accessories . For $2k tesla will let you knock off 1 sec 0-60 from the LR but they won't let you convert it to a P

Personally I was prepared to pay the $7k to get the car faster but I wanted the 19" wheels ( didn't even want it cheaper) but they would not sell it in that configuration so I just went with the LR.

 

[CRIMSON_DATE]

To catch up the production rate of Fremont will take a while. Look at recently released date from Tesla. Fremont is STILL ahead of Shanghai in term of number of vehicles produced. Shanghai started production in Dec 2019! People don't realize how hard it is to start production from nothing to max capacity. I am sure Tesla has learned many things since Fremont and Shanghai, but it will certainly take more than a few months to reach max production.

If they are not searving the country they don't need to match fremont production. Fremont is producing MY, MY, MS, MX . If they can get 25-50% of Fremonts MY production they should be fine.