Model Y Not Worth the Price Now [Nov 2022]

[AndrewZ]

That's the problem with polls like this, they are entertaining but one can draw no conclusions from them. In September the Y was the best selling car of any kind in Europe, a first, and it passed the Corolla and was the best selling car of any kind in the world despite being ~ 40% more expensive than the Corolla. Clearly, the price isn't too high.

September is the EOQ push month, what do the YTD stats look like? When were these cars ordered and at what price? There is a cheaper RWD version publicly available in Europe, how many of the sales were RWDs?

Side note that Europe has had quite a few brand new Model Ys sitting in inventory lately, currently almost 200 according to EV-CPO

 

[laservet]

Didn't Tesla say they stopped the EOQ push, no longer needed it?

 

[Cherokee180c]

That's the problem with polls like this, they are entertaining but one can draw no conclusions from them. In September the Y was the best selling car of any kind in Europe, a first, and it passed the Corolla and was the best selling car of any kind in the world despite being ~ 40% more expensive than the Corolla. Clearly, the price isn't too high.

My point exactly. The only real valid metric to judge by. If people think it is not overpriced they will buy, if overpriced they will not. Arguing something is overpriced that has a 6 month waiting list just shows your criteria you are judging by does not match the criteria valued by most of the purchasing population.

 

[AndrewZ]

Didn't Tesla say they stopped the EOQ push, no longer needed it?

That was the goal several Qs ago, but it has continued as of last quarter

Europe: Tesla Model Y Was The Best Selling Car In September 2022

Almost 250,000 new passenger plug-in cars were registered in Europe in September (best month since March), which is 7% more than a year ago.

insideevs.com

YTD Tesla was #7 at a group level for European plug-in sales

 

[patnshan]

I also bought mine in 12/20 for around $55k. I think I will probably look at an actual luxury EV when I am ready to buy, but ONLY if there is an actual nationwide reliable fast charging network. That is the one thing that makes Tesla worth it by a mile.

 

[Cherokee180c]

Operating cost over time is comparable on an ICE and a tesla... I think KBB did an article on this showing only energy savings made a difference over long term ownership. Related to ownership in the 10+ year period the tesla will need a battery at $16-18K, what on a gas car would be replaced in this range? I have never had any service on any car cost this much...

Also, as a note driving long distance in an EV vs ICE costs the same as the rate at SC is very high now. We have done several bay area trips and total charging cost was around $190, I can do that same trip in my ICE car faster by 1hr and for $120... My E350 get 700miles on a full tank driving at 85 on this trip...

Battery is under warranty for 8. The 10 year claim for battery replacement is just garbage. Maybe if you drive 25K / year. Many Tesla’s are over 200K miles with no battery replacement. At 10 years the car doesn’t owe me anything anyway, so only thing that would effect is used car resale value. If you are arguing a used 10 year old gas car will be worth more than a used 10 year old EV, again I think you are very wrong. Many people who live in the city and have no need for 250 mile range would love to have a Tesla for $15K.

Last time I checked you did not need to change the oil in an EV either. Brakes last twice as long, so please enlighten us on all the additional expenses the KBB article found with an EV that owners themselves are not reporting.

 

[Engi_Nerd]

prices will not be coming down any time soon, my 2022 MYP paint and fit and finish was immaculate

Agree to disagree. I don't personally think a $3750 incentive will be enough to keep a $70K SUV within stretch range for most regular folks once rates hit 7-8% next year. Your paint being high quality does not mean quality is good. It just means you got a good copy. Tesla's quality swings wildly throughout the year as output ramps up and down. Our local service center even admitted as such, telling us Tesla's end of the year push always results in a nightmare of rework for them.

 

[Apprunner]

Operating cost over time is comparable on an ICE and a tesla... I think KBB did an article on this showing only energy savings made a difference over long term ownership. Related to ownership in the 10+ year period the tesla will need a battery at $16-18K, what on a gas car would be replaced in this range? I have never had any service on any car cost this much...

Also, as a note driving long distance in an EV vs ICE costs the same as the rate at SC is very high now. We have done several bay area trips and total charging cost was around $190, I can do that same trip in my ICE car faster by 1hr and for $120... My E350 get 700miles on a full tank driving at 85 on this trip...

The operating costs are not the same...nowhere close. A battery properly cared for will last about 15 years...even crappy Leafs with passive battery cooling are lasting far longer than expectations. Most people only keep their cars about ~8 years if they own. Using that average, how many maintenance items will you save over those 8 years...probably a couple grand at least. I kept my Lexus IS350 for 5 years and 60k miles and it racked up $3k worth of maintenance that my Tesla will never see (synth oil, brakes, other fluids). Not to mention that my Tesla has been far more convenient than my Lexus ever was (no maintenance trips, no gas stations). I've spent $40 on maintenance in the last 3.5 years on my Tesla (outside of tires). I've never had such a convenient car.

 

[nate704]

Agree to disagree. I don't personally think a $3750 incentive will be enough to keep a $70K SUV within stretch range for most regular folks once rates hit 7-8% next year. Your paint being high quality does not mean quality is good. It just means you got a good copy. Tesla's quality swings wildly throughout the year as output ramps up and down. Our local service center even admitted as such, telling us Tesla's end of the year push always results in a nightmare of rework for them.

Fit and finish is somewhat overblown. I got my MYP at the end of Q1 push. I picked up my car 3/31/22. I also was the last person to take the delivery out of 25 deliveries on that day. None of them had fit and finish issues that they would request service. How do I know? They put us in a giant warehouse waiting area to sign and ask questions and stuff, but none of them asked or complained about the fit and finish. They had about 10 MY/MYP deliveries and I looked them all for panel gaps, but none had gaps that caught my eyes.
After I got home, I found 3 light scratches on the driver side fender, but they disappeared after I applied PPF over it 2 days later.

 

[AndrewZ]

The operating costs are not the same...nowhere close. A battery properly cared for will last about 15 years...even crappy Leafs with passive battery cooling are lasting far longer than expectations. Most people only keep their cars about ~8 years if they own. Using that average, how many maintenance items will you save over those 8 years...probably a couple grand at least. I kept my Lexus IS350 for 5 years and 60k miles and it racked up $3k worth of maintenance that my Tesla will never see (synth oil, brakes, other fluids). Not to mention that my Tesla has been far more convenient than my Lexus ever was (no maintenance trips, no gas stations). I've spent $40 on maintenance in the last 3.5 years on my Tesla (outside of tires). I've never had such a convenient car.

If the argument is that you pay a premium today to save gas costs over time, there are many more complications when thinking about stuff like opportunity cost and the idea that money today is worth more than money tomorrow -- most fuel costs for a new ICE are years in the future. And we can try deducing where gasoline and electricity prices might go over the next 5-10-15 years, because obviously those will fluctuate.

If everyone suddenly switches to EVs before the infrastructure etc can adapt, I'd expect gas prices to plummet and electricity costs to spike. Supercharger costs have already gone way up, of course only affecting people who can't charge at home or who are doing road trips.

 

[nate704]

Unless US produces electricity from 100% renewable or nuclear, the price of electricity will go up as the gas price go up. Since 100% renewable energy source is IMPOSSIBLE in my lifetime, I expect high electricity price along with high gas price.
Poor and middle class suffer while rich people make more money.

 

[voxel]

That's the problem with polls like this, they are entertaining but one can draw no conclusions from them. In September the Y was the best selling car of any kind in Europe, a first, and it passed the Corolla and was the best selling car of any kind in the world despite being ~ 40% more expensive than the Corolla. Clearly, the price isn't too high.

I think Europe has large EV subsidies. I've heard folks in Germany are buying Ys and flipping them to neighboring countries because other EVs simply have long wait times.

My opinion has always been these EV tax credits and subsidies vastly distort the market. In the US without the tax credit, Model Ys were selling like hotcakes but sales growth has definitely slowed and you can tell the used market is much softer since there are Ys available for less than MSRP.

 

[NudleBoy]

The way I see it, I'm paying a premium for the infrastructure. As soon as the infrastructure opens to all and is stable or has ease of access, then there is no longer a benefit for me to have a Model Y. Don't get me wrong, I love my Y, but I'd never pay the price it is now. I hesitated paying the price before already.

 

[TigerNinety]

Also, as a note driving long distance in an EV vs ICE costs the same as the rate at SC is very high now. We have done several bay area trips and total charging cost was around $190, I can do that same trip in my ICE car faster by 1hr and for $120... My E350 get 700miles on a full tank driving at 85 on this trip...

I’m genuinely curious about this, particularly the SC rate you paid. Here on the mid-Atlantic and up through NY state (recent trip), we’ve been paying about $.43/kWh. So, for our M3LR, a full charge would be $40.02 vs $66.05 for our 2015 Toyota Highlander (358 mi worth of regular gas at 25 MPG Highway).

 

[Apprunner]

If the argument is that you pay a premium today to save gas costs over time, there are many more complications when thinking about stuff like opportunity cost and the idea that money today is worth more than money tomorrow -- most fuel costs for a new ICE are years in the future. And we can try deducing where gasoline and electricity prices might go over the next 5-10-15 years, because obviously those will fluctuate.

If everyone suddenly switches to EVs before the infrastructure etc can adapt, I'd expect gas prices to plummet and electricity costs to spike. Supercharger costs have already gone way up, of course only affecting people who can't charge at home or who are doing road trips.

True but I didn't really bring up the price of charging...just the amount of operating cost in terms of maintenance. It gets worse for the ICE if you count in my charging costs which are a big fat $0 as I have solar which has already been paid off and which i've already exceeded breakeven on my investment. In many regions, a hedge against high electricity prices is something like solar for many people so it can be drastically cheaper to own the EV.

I acknowledge that Supercharger costs are way up but most people will charge 99% at home and that roadtrip you take once or twice a year, the EV will be ad cost parity with a hit on time to get to destination. Of course, I'd rather drive my Tesla for a roadtrip and enjoy autopilot and instant acceleration vs. most ICEs so everyone has their biases.

 

[nate704]

The way I see it, I'm paying a premium for the infrastructure. As soon as the infrastructure opens to all and is stable or has ease of access, then there is no longer a benefit for me to have a Model Y. Don't get me wrong, I love my Y, but I'd never pay the price it is now. I hesitated paying the price before already.

I agree with your point.
I didn't buy a Tesla for Supercharger network since I barely do road trips (home charging 99% of time). I bought Tesla for acceleration and battery/BMS technology and software capability, and super bright headlight (even though no matrix capability yet).

 

[nate704]

I’m genuinely curious about this, particularly the SC rate you paid. Here on the mid-Atlantic and up through NY state (recent trip), we’ve been paying about $.43/kWh. So, for our M3LR, a full charge would be $40.02 vs $66.05 for our 2015 Toyota Highlander (358 mi worth of regular gas at 25 MPG Highway).

Similar experience here. Also, note that Highlander real world MPG is around 21-23 MPG (non hybrid model).

 

[nate704]

True but I didn't really bring up the price of charging...just the amount of operating cost in terms of maintenance. It gets worse for the ICE if you count in my charging costs which are a big fat $0 as I have solar which has already been paid off and which i've already exceeded breakeven on my investment. In many regions, a hedge against high electricity prices is something like solar for many people so it can be drastically cheaper to own the EV.

I acknowledge that Supercharger costs are way up but most people will charge 99% at home and that roadtrip you take once or twice a year, the EV will be ad cost parity with a hit on time to get to destination. Of course, I'd rather drive my Tesla for a roadtrip and enjoy autopilot and instant acceleration vs. most ICEs so everyone has their biases.

I agree, and that's why I got solar panels. However, I just installed them, so I will be minus profit for the next 12 years while I pay off my loan. LOL

 

[nate704]

I think Europe has large EV subsidies. I've heard folks in Germany are buying Ys and flipping them to neighboring countries because other EVs simply have long wait times.

My opinion has always been these EV tax credits and subsidies vastly distort the market. In the US without the tax credit, Model Ys were selling like hotcakes but sales growth has definitely slowed and you can tell the used market is much softer since there are Ys available for less than MSRP.

I want to move to Germany and start flipping MYPs! LOL
Tesla sales growth has not been slowed down, it is actually up every quarter (please correct me if I am wrong). Also, used car should be cheaper than new car MSRP, not the other way around.

 

[Apprunner]

I agree, and that's why I got solar panels. However, I just installed them, so I will be minus profit for the next 12 years while I pay off my loan. LOL

You may find that the breakeven will come faster. My breakeven was 6 years when i bought my panels but with the rise of electricity costs in so-cal, in 3 years, i've broken even. I'm just happy that I bought enough for 2 EVs as our 2nd EV is the family hauler and really sucks up the juice