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Model Y Timeline

Discussion in 'Model Y' started by ZeApelido, Oct 24, 2018.

  1. ZeApelido

    ZeApelido Member

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    Since Model Y prototype has been internally approved, it sounds further along than Model 3 in March 2016 at reveal. Maybe I am wrong. What time point in the Model 3 Dev does this sound like to you?
     
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  2. Chuq

    Chuq Active Member

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    It does appear that way. I was surprised to hear the Model Y design had been finalised. At the Model 3 reveal, one of the models had different door handles, so it seems things were still being locked down at that point. (I seem to remember a "pencils down" reference about 3-4 months after)
     
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  3. Omer

    Omer Member

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    Time for a Model Y sub?
     
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  4. ZeApelido

    ZeApelido Member

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    Yeah I think that was early July 2016. If Model Y is at "pencils down" stage, does that mean production begins in a year?
     
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  5. MBS

    MBS Member

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    I will have to dig out the article, but it seems to me the Y will have a significantly less amount of wire than the 3, much like each generation of S and X have meant less. Something like only 10% of the wire that is in the S. In short, it is going to be a completely new animal on a 3 chassis (much like X is very different than the S despite being on the same chassis).

    I am quite sure there are a number of folks on this thread that know much more than I do about the process. Suffice to say, the technology is only getting better and better (and will continue to do so...which is a great reason why to do a lease on a new S or X than buying new. Cannot wait to see the new mini-SUV. It will crush the competition.

    Peace
    Mark
     
  6. Brando

    Brando Active Member

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    historical/typical vehicle development
    - clay model
    - prototype - [seems the Model Y has met internal approvals]
    next we get
    - engineering prototype = EP potential supplier lists, validate suppliers, assembly tools/methods
    - validation prototype = VP - pick the suppliers/spec for parts; work out more mfg. details; tests for government standards & approvals; torture testing for wear & tear & reliability

    typically 10 EP are built/tested and then 10 VP are built/tested

    This is just a generic overview and we'd all suspect Tesla more flexible than most others.

    Tesla total R&D spending 2010-2017 = $4.2 billion TOTAL - check for yourself what other automakers are claiming to spend.
    Model S/X/3; GigaFactory Reno, NV; Glass Roofing NY; Power Wall/Pack; SuperChargers
    (To me, it is another metric Tesla outperforms most.)
     
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  7. MikeDog77

    MikeDog77 Member

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    Agreed that the Y will be a completely new animal, but lets remember 2 important parts that will be the same from the 3. The motor and the battery pack. Both Tesla made, both were brand new design's for the Model 3. Early on there were reports of high motor failure rates and even today we hear(unconfirmed) reports of the Battery packs being the bottleneck. With Panasonic bringing a new line on by the end of the year that issue should be resolved. So that is a lot of risk that is out with the Model Y development. I would expect a much faster production ramp up. That said Tesla might try to resign something new from the ground up with the Y, so we will have to wait and see.
     
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  8. Brando

    Brando Active Member

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    I'd speculate about battery packs:

    - I'd suspect more than just cell count varies
    - chemistries seem constantly to change/improve
    - vehicle vs storage different in use profile and chemistries probably differ

    Model S 75/100 obsolete 40/60/85/90 (continuous improvement & development (some variation in sizes possible?)
    Model X 75/100 probably same as S? skateboard is not identical in size to S - interesting
    Model 3 55/65/80 (enough volume to justify variable size?) (effects on crash/crush behavior?)
    SEMI doesn't need strength of vehicle pack - size might well differ? how much can cooling parts be shared?
    Model Y will probably use Model 3 pack - greatest economies of scale
    PowerWall share with PowerPack certainly don't need vehicle strength (probably share size and cell count for economies of scale)

    No doubt Tesla will be making calculations to decide what to "share" vs what volumes justify varying from standard or sharing designs.

    note: batteries will develop/change over the years, who knows how?
     
  9. Blu Angel

    Blu Angel Member

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    @MBS,
    Here's the article you're alluding to:
    Electrical Harness goes from 3 km (Tesla S) to 1.5 km (Tesla 3) to approximately 100 meters!

    Tesla Model Y To Ditch 12-Volt Battery, 95% Less Wiring Than Model 3

    @Brando,
    May I add the next most logical step after VP (Validation Prototype)?

    CD - Customer Deposit to build up the CAPEX (Capital Expenditures) monies

    Ides of March - March 15, 2019 - Possible Public Reveal of Tesla Y model
    I'm ready to contribute a $2000 deposit to guarantee my reservation
     
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  10. Brando

    Brando Active Member

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    You don't need to guarantee your reservation.
    Correct me if I'm wrong, but when you use your reservation and place an actual order for a specific configuration, I think you must pay an additional deposit and this has limits on how long or when you can ask for a refund - i.e. deposit becomes non-refundable at some point, right?

    There might be a "Founders Edition" which in the past has allowed you to jump to the front of the waiting line and is a way to provide extra support to Tesla and perhaps a special color or something. And no doubt you'll be more of a beta testers and perhaps more carefully listened to about problems/concerns??

    I only think I know what I think I have read.
    Look to Experienced/Previous Founder Edition buyers for nuances about buying/getting Founder Edition IF it is offered this time. And of course look for announcements.

    thanks for wiring post.
     
  11. 11thIndian

    11thIndian Member

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    I’m ready!

    So I think the practical qestion is how will the Model Y rollout differ from the Model 3. If we take the Model 3 timing and map it directly to the Model Y- isn’t this what we’d have?

    March 2019 - Unveil and reservations
    June 2020 - First deliveries and start of production

    So, if that’s a 1:1, then what can we expect/assume/hope Tesla will do differently?

    That the Model Y is borrowing a lot from the Model 3 should certainly be beneficial in speed of development and improve the curve of the production ramp.

    New efficiencies in production (wire harness improvements, no 12V battery) could also help on both those counts.

    The fact that there’s no defined N.A. Factory yet could impact production start.

    Will Tesla be closer to “Pencils down” at unveil with Model Y than they were with Model 3?

    I think there’s lot of reasons to be optimistic that the Model Y could start production sooner and ramp faster, as long as they have the production capacity to do it.

    And what will happen with reservations? If the Model 3 reservations were surprising, I think the lineups for in-store reservations for Model Y could be straight-up stupid. Will Tesla handle reservations the same way with potentially 25-50% more interest in N.A.’s favorite vehicle style.
     
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  12. Thekiwi

    Thekiwi Member

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    Sounds plausible.

    I would hope the gap between unveil and deliveries is as short as possible, as I think it will cannibalise a little bit of model 3 demand - so the sooner it enters mass production the better.
     
  13. Emmexx1

    Emmexx1 Member

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    The other part of the Y coming online will be to match against offerings like the E-Niro and Kona EVs. With Kia only planning to hit a 2K mark for countries like Norway in 2019, much less if any for the US, I don't see any trouble for Tesla hitting a ramp up by end of 2020 and dominating CUV EVs as well.
     
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  14. Rockster

    Rockster Active Member

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    I've been thinking about this point for days. The likes of Ford and GM are spending $6B or $7B per year on R&D and what do we get for that? Certainly not real innovation. I think this is extremely relevant, yet overlooked point. Tesla does much more with their R&D budget than their competition. This will accelerate Tesla's lead in the industry.
     
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  15. Swampgator

    Swampgator Active Member

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    Missing the market entirely.
    Tesla will aim for Model Y to be better than BMW X3. They could give a rats &^^@$% about Kia
     
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  16. Uncle Paul

    Uncle Paul Active Member

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    Tesla has already indicated that they are working on an improved, and less expensive battery for the Standard Model 3.

    Initially they wanted to make the Model Y on an entirely new chassis, but latest reports are that it will be produced on a modified Model 3 chassis to save time and money.

    With so many people choosing smaller SUVs I would imaging that the volumes of the Model Y would far exceed the Model 3.
     
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  17. Emmexx1

    Emmexx1 Member

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    Obviously, Tesla is aiming at BMW and such. However, Kia E-Niro and Hyundai Kona EV have a better efficiency than Jaguar I-pace, lower price, and a better range. If they put any kind of volume into those, they will get buyers. Numbers show they aren't better than a Tesla, but they also are a valid offering, if they can be reliably produced in decent numbers.

    Then again, that's true of any of the other makers as well.
     
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  18. Swampgator

    Swampgator Active Member

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    The problem with all of those cars is that the are unprofitable to make. That is why they will only, ever, be made in rather limited quantities.
    They may all be fantastic cars, but they are not meant to be produced in volume because nobody but Tesla has figured out how to make them profitably.
     
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  19. dskid

    dskid Member

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    Well you know, charging double is a good start. :)
     
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  20. Swampgator

    Swampgator Active Member

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    Yes, target the higher end trims as Tesla does. But remember Tesla outcompetes BMW and Mercedes both in performance and in value.
    A BMW M3 actually costs more than a P3D while offering less performance and tech. At a much higher cost to operate.
    This is always a good test to see if an OEM is serious in their efforts: Which ICE car does the BEV compete directly with in price and performance?

    Hyundai Kona?
    I-Pace?
    Audi e-tron suv?
    Bolt?

    If the answer is none then you know they are compliance cars.
     
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