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Since Model Y prototype has been internally approved, it sounds further along than Model 3 in March 2016 at reveal. Maybe I am wrong. What time point in the Model 3 Dev does this sound like to you?
It does appear that way. I was surprised to hear the Model Y design had been finalised. At the Model 3 reveal, one of the models had different door handles, so it seems things were still being locked down at that point. (I seem to remember a "pencils down" reference about 3-4 months after)
I will have to dig out the article, but it seems to me the Y will have a significantly less amount of wire than the 3, much like each generation of S and X have meant less. Something like only 10% of the wire that is in the S. In short, it is going to be a completely new animal on a 3 chassis (much like X is very different than the S despite being on the same chassis).
I am quite sure there are a number of folks on this thread that know much more than I do about the process. Suffice to say, the technology is only getting better and better (and will continue to do so...which is a great reason why to do a lease on a new S or X than buying new. Cannot wait to see the new mini-SUV. It will crush the competition.
Peace
Mark
@MBS,I will have to dig out the article, but it seems to me the Y will have a significantly less amount of wire than the 3, much like each generation of S and X have meant less. Something like only 10% of the wire that is in the S. In short, it is going to be a completely new animal on a 3 chassis....... Cannot wait to see the new mini-SUV. It will crush the competition.
historical/typical vehicle development
- clay model
- prototype - [seems the Model Y has met internal approvals]
next we get
- engineering prototype = EP potential supplier lists, validate suppliers, assembly tools/methods
- validation prototype = VP - pick the suppliers/spec for parts; work out more mfg. details; tests for government standards & approvals; torture testing for wear & tear & reliability
typically 10 EP are built/tested and then 10 VP are built/tested.
You don't need to guarantee your reservation.@MBS,
Here's the article you're alluding to:
Electrical Harness goes from 3 km (Tesla S) to 1.5 km (Tesla 3) to approximately 100 meters!
Tesla Model Y To Ditch 12-Volt Battery, 95% Less Wiring Than Model 3
@Brando,
May I add the next most logical step after VP (Validation Prototype)?
CD - Customer Deposit to build up the CAPEX (Capital Expenditures) monies
Ides of March - March 15, 2019 - Possible Public Reveal of Tesla Y model
I'm ready to contribute a $2000 deposit to guarantee my reservation
I’m ready!
So I think the practical qestion is how will the Model Y rollout differ from the Model 3. If we take the Model 3 timing and map it directly to the Model Y- isn’t this what we’d have?
March 2019 - Unveil and reservations
June 2020 - First deliveries and start of production
So, if that’s a 1:1, then what can we expect/assume/hope Tesla will do differently?
That the Model Y is borrowing a lot from the Model 3 should certainly be beneficial in speed of development and improve the curve of the production ramp.
New efficiencies in production (wire harness improvements, no 12V battery) could also help on both those counts.
The fact that there’s no defined N.A. Factory yet could impact production start.
Will Tesla be closer to “Pencils down” at unveil with Model Y than they were with Model 3?
I think there’s lot of reasons to be optimistic that the Model Y could start production sooner and ramp faster, as long as they have the production capacity to do it.
And what will happen with reservations? If the Model 3 reservations were surprising, I think the lineups for in-store reservations for Model Y could be straight-up stupid. Will Tesla handle reservations the same way with potentially 25-50% more interest in N.A.’s favorite vehicle style.
Tesla total R&D spending 2010-2017 = $4.2 billion TOTAL - check for yourself what other automakers are claiming to spend.
Missing the market entirely.The other part of the Y coming online will be to match against offerings like the E-Niro and Kona EVs. With Kia only planning to hit a 2K mark for countries like Norway in 2019, much less if any for the US, I don't see any trouble for Tesla hitting a ramp up by end of 2020 and dominating CUV EVs as well.
Obviously, Tesla is aiming at BMW and such. However, Kia E-Niro and Hyundai Kona EV have a better efficiency than Jaguar I-pace, lower price, and a better range. If they put any kind of volume into those, they will get buyers. Numbers show they aren't better than a Tesla, but they also are a valid offering, if they can be reliably produced in decent numbers.Missing the market entirely.
Tesla will aim for Model Y to be better than BMW X3. They could give a rats &^^@$% about Kia
The problem with all of those cars is that the are unprofitable to make. That is why they will only, ever, be made in rather limited quantities.Obviously, Tesla is aiming at BMW and such. However, Kia E-Niro and Hyundai Kona EV have a better efficiency than Jaguar I-pace, lower price, and a better range. If they put any kind of volume into those, they will get buyers. Numbers show they aren't better than a Tesla, but they also are a valid offering, if they can be reliably produced in decent numbers.
Then again, that's true of any of the other makers as well.
The problem with all of those cars is that the are unprofitable to make. That is why they will only, ever, be made in rather limited quantities.
They may all be fantastic cars, but they are not meant to be produced in volume because nobody but Tesla has figured out how to make them profitably.
Well you know, charging double is a good start.