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I'm sorry for taking this off-topic conversation into yet another off-topic area, but I just wanted to relay my thoughts to those that keep mentioning about this upcoming EV competition.
I don't think Tesla will have any competition for quite some time (~10 years) for the following reasons:
- Tesla has developed a brand reputation for being a high-end, highly sought-after EV (why buy anything else?)
- Tesla will likely have the best EV implementation for a very long time (they keep innovating every week instead of once or twice a year)
- Tesla is currently the only company with a world-wide supercharger infrastructure (how will those other EVs take road trips?)
- Tesla may have the cheapest EV implementation, thanks to their mass production and giga factory (why pay more?)
- Most traditional auto-makers are still dragging their feet on both research and implementation (why would they harm their existing business model?)
- Tesla is the only company with a full EV line-up including Powerwalls and Solar. Just easier to work with one integrated company.
- Tesla is full-on, 100% EV. Every other major manufacturer still has one foot in fossils, so they are not whole-heartedly behind EV.
Pandamoanium
Member
Depends on your definition of competition.
I see competition paying Tesla in the interim for their super charging network if they need it. Though Porsche has something different in mind for charging, as well as how quickly. A lot of these companies aren't completely new to this. They're building off of hybrid technologies to ease people in, but also working on full EV.
One thing to consider is that these companies have something Tesla struggled with, MONEY and INVESTORS. Porsche is a great example because they've never necessarily been against this, they've always done things against the flow and they recently just demolished a huge part of their plant for EV research.
Oh, and people who love BMW will flock to the 3 series just due to the name. Ten years is a long time, I think in five we will have options. Ten is just over 50% of road vehicles will be EV.
I'd hate to be proven wrong, but I'd prefer for this to happen faster!
I agree, I too would like to see this happen faster. And I had expected the big automotive companies to react quicker to Tesla, but am shocked at their slow reaction. Every car company has been talking about EVs, Fuel-cells, etc. for decades, what gives?
One thing I don't think will happen is that the competition will pay Tesla to use their supercharging network. Historically, these automotive companies seem to refuse to work with those that are seen as a threat (Tesla). And when they do decide to work together, getting all parties to agree on a plan is a very slow and painful process.
Ford, BMW, Daimler and VW are talking about starting to build a EU charging network (which is a subset of Tesla's global network) sometime this year. How long would it take to build out what Tesla has in the EU? And what vehicles would charge at these stations? Very few choices right now, so I can't imagine they're in a rush to build this out. It's just more talk to keep existing customers waiting a little longer to jump into an EV purchase.
Pandamoanium
Member
I agree!
I only think they would suck it up and pay for a short amount of time, only because it would be a relatively small cost to increase sales and support for their EVs. Also, if something were to go wrong, they get the research on it and technically Tesla would be responsible for the costs. Then when their network it out, they will charge for it, nothing is eventually free with these guys.
More as a statement of fact than anything else, but Jaguar has decided to put the charge port on the front left fender.
Therfore a typical Supercharger bay is physically incompatible.
Any chance JLR and Tesla could come to a commercial agreement to use the Network are beyond optimistic
Man I knew guys preferred to back in, but I didn't know we were physically incapable of pulling in forward!
Pandamoanium
Member
Huh???More as a statement of fact than anything else, but Jaguar has decided to put the charge port on the front left fender.
Therfore a typical Supercharger bay is physically incompatible.
Any chance JLR and Tesla could come to a commercial agreement to use the Network are beyond optimistic
Google pictures and let me know if it's possible. Just thinking about the supercharger here, it's possible. It would take an adapter anyways. There could be some extra slack!
More as a statement of fact than anything else, but Jaguar has decided to put the charge port on the front left fender.
Therfore a typical Supercharger bay is physically incompatible.
Any chance JLR and Tesla could come to a commercial agreement to use the Network are beyond optimistic
Isn't it on the right fender, though, on the I-Pace? Or have they moved it?
It is the direct opposite of the Tesla location, which means it works when you pull into a bay vs. back into it. I could see it working at Superchargers, no?
Not that I expect any such co-operation, just pondering the physics.
Usually I agree with you @vandacca on a lot of things, but this is just silly in my books.
You say Tesla won't have competition for a decade and I think they will have competition in ~1 year on the premium level and in ~2-3 years on the volume level.
One of us will be embarrasingly wrong, of course. We shall see.
Sure, Tesla has brand cachet, but then again most non-enthusiast people don't know Tesla. They do know Audi and Volkswagen, though. There are a lot of regular customers that have a lot of loyalty towards the traditional brands. Can Tesla upset all that? It is not impossible, of course, Apple unseated great many things with the iPhone. But I think only a real Tesla enthusiast would at this stage thing Tesla's brand is so hot that the average buyer wouldn't consider anything else.
Actually, a lot of burned Tesla buyers are apparently considering something else too, once available if TMC is any indicator.
See question 1.
True, of course. But I'm not sure how much it matters, the main benefit of an EV is the daily commute anyway. Charging at night or during the working day. Anything else is painful and difficult compared to an ICE and even Superchargers do not cover all areas yet. And CCS will only grow...
Remains to be seen whether or not the battery question is a showstopper for the competition or a myth. I don't think we have sufficient insight into the battery strategy and acquisition possibilities of, say, Volkswagen group to say for sure.
True. Some auto-makers probably will fail because they drag their feet too long. But *no* competition? For *10* years?
Pfft. Irrelevant. Tesla is nothing in most of the world infrastructure-wise. Actually, that is a problem for them as a car manufacturer as well. There are a lot of areas where servicing a Tesla is very difficult. At this stage regular folk will probably care more about getting their car serviced than wanting to buy electrical stuff for their house from the car store...
True, but all it takes is one or few major manufacturers getting enough of a hint to change the competitive landscape. I wouldn't dismiss all other startups either.
The only EV options for the foreseeable future are products from Tesla? Wow. You really said that, didn't you. I guess our worldview really is just that different on this, because I don't consider you an irrational person - even though it reads to me that way.
As I've said before, 2018 is the year of the Tesla competition - on the premium level. If there aren't a few former Tesla owners driving around in their BEV Jags and Audis on TMC, then I will have been wrong, but I don't think so.
Look, Tesla has a great chance at making it big. But no competition for ten years? No competition until 2027?
Pandamoanium
Member
Give me an MB or better yet, the interior of a Range Rover sport with the drivetrain of a Tesla, or an Alfa Romeo 4C with Tesla guts.
I'll most likely go that route before Tesla again. With the interior designer of Volvo going there it could definetly be in the works. It'll be interesting to see the redesign when it comes through.
I'll most likely go that route before Tesla again. With the interior designer of Volvo going there it could definetly be in the works. It'll be interesting to see the redesign when it comes through.
Pandamoanium
Member
I agree with pretty much everything you typed up. I believe if Tesla actually did marketing and actively out their name out there it would do more. But I also think they're smart and the investment at the current price for the S and X doesn't make sense. Once the 3 comes out, marketing makes a lot more sense. Then they'd be a big player along side with the giants.Usually I agree with you @vandacca on a lot of things, but this is just silly in my books.
You say Tesla won't have competition for a decade and I think they will have competition in ~1 year on the premium level and in ~2-3 years on the volume level.
One of us will be embarrasingly wrong, of course. We shall see.
Sure, Tesla has brand cachet, but then again most non-enthusiast people don't know Tesla. They do know Audi and Volkswagen, though. There are a lot of regular customers that have a lot of loyalty towards the traditional brands. Can Tesla upset all that? It is not impossible, of course, Apple unseated great many things with the iPhone. But I think only a real Tesla enthusiast would at this stage thing Tesla's brand is so hot that the average buyer wouldn't consider anything else.
Actually, a lot of burned Tesla buyers are apparently considering something else too, once available if TMC is any indicator.
See question 1.
True, of course. But I'm not sure how much it matters, the main benefit of an EV is the daily commute anyway. Charging at night or during the working day. Anything else is painful and difficult compared to an ICE and even Superchargers do not cover all areas yet. And CCS will only grow...
Remains to be seen whether or not the battery question is a showstopper for the competition or a myth. I don't think we have sufficient insight into the battery strategy and acquisition possibilities of, say, Volkswagen group to say for sure.
True. Some auto-makers probably will fail because they drag their feet too long. But *no* competition? For *10* years?
Pfft. Irrelevant. Tesla is nothing in most of the world infrastructure-wise. Actually, that is a problem for them as a car manufacturer as well. There are a lot of areas where servicing a Tesla is very difficult. At this stage regular folk will probably care more about getting their car serviced than wanting to buy electrical stuff for their house from the car store...
True, but all it takes is one or few major manufacturers getting enough of a hint to change the competitive landscape. I wouldn't dismiss all other startups either.
The only EV options for the foreseeable future are products from Tesla? Wow. You really said that, didn't you. I guess our worldview really is just that different on this, because I don't consider you an irrational person - even though it reads to me that way.
As I've said before, 2018 is the year of the Tesla competition - on the premium level. If there aren't a few former Tesla owners driving around in their BEV Jags and Audis on TMC, then I will have been wrong, but I don't think so.
Look, Tesla has a great chance at making it big. But no competition for ten years? No competition until 2027?
Indeed. What many forger, other manufacturers have definite strenghts over Tesla in other areas. While Tesla has been busy "constantly innovating" aka making Model S/X interior trim options limited like those of a low-end Toyota, discontinuing stuff like monopost seating, Alcantara dashes, ventilated seats and adaptive spoiler, their competition is offering far more conveniences.
Also, it will be interesting to see how the self-driving space pans out. EAP is not exactly a glorius advertisement for Tesla, while Audi is said to be coming out with real Level 3 (aka "read a book" Level) in limited circmustances this year in the Audi A8...
The idea that Tesla would somehow universally dominate EVs for the next decade seems unlikely to me. However, certainly they could gain / keep large market share...
Who is the competition in ~1 year? Or even ~2-3 years? More to come on why I don't think they'll have competition below...
I'm absolutely shocked at how many young people know about the Tesla brand. Sure, there may be a lot of older people that have never heard of Tesla, but there is a new wave of upcoming consumers that are fully versed about the Tesla story. And I do like the iPhone analogy because I think it applies here.
Furthermore, when Apple released the iPod, the industry coined the term "Halo Effect" and it would lead to other sales. At the time, I dismissed that whole concept because I couldn't see how someone buying an iPod would lead to purchasing other Apple products. Turns out I was dead wrong. I see the same Halo Effect happening with Tesla.
Would you buy a car that was only good for city driving? I know I wouldn't, so I think there is a very small market for such a limited vehicle, especially for those that can only afford 1 vehicle.
I'm very confident that in 2-5 years, Tesla's lack of competition will become obvious. Their disruptive presence will have a huge impact on the automotive industry. The automotive industry should have reacted by now and because they haven't, they're being left further and further behind. They just don't like taking risks or changing too quickly and Tesla is still pushing hard (probably for fear of their life) expecting to see this big dinosaur about to eat them up. But I think it's too late, Tesla is far enough ahead and still pulling away.
This is their only market, so they're putting 100% resources into it. Everyone else is still testing the waters. I don't have a lot of faith in new upstarts either, it's a big barrier to entry. What's going to happen is the automakers will be forced to turn to Google/Waymo, IO, or Apple for help.
Let's reconvene in 2 years and see if you still feel that competition is on the horizon.
BTW, I'm just bitter with the old-school automotive industry. I've been waiting for a decent EV since my university days 30 years ago. Kept being promised that they were around the corner and I even had a chance to see an EV1 up close once.
Pandamoanium
Member
I think your idea of competition is where the disagreement lies. I don't think that other manufactures will be as good when it comes to range yet, but other manufactures are revealing their concepts and fast tracking them.Who is the competition in ~1 year? Or even ~2-3 years? More to come on why I don't think they'll have competition below...
I'm absolutely shocked at how many young people know about the Tesla brand. Sure, there may be a lot of older people that have never heard of Tesla, but there is a new wave of upcoming consumers that are fully versed about the Tesla story. And I do like the iPhone analogy because I think it applies here.
Furthermore, when Apple released the iPod, the industry coined the term "Halo Effect" and it would lead to other sales. At the time, I dismissed that whole concept because I couldn't see how someone buying an iPod would lead to purchasing other Apple products. Turns out I was dead wrong. I see the same Halo Effect happening with Tesla.
Would you buy a car that was only good for city driving? I know I wouldn't, so I think there is a very small market for such a limited vehicle, especially for those that can only afford 1 vehicle.
I'm very confident that in 2-5 years, Tesla's lack of competition will become obvious. Their disruptive presence will have a huge impact on the automotive industry. The automotive industry should have reacted by now and because they haven't, they're being left further and further behind. They just don't like taking risks or changing too quickly and Tesla is still pushing hard (probably for fear of their life) expecting to see this big dinosaur about to eat them up. But I think it's too late, Tesla is far enough ahead and still pulling away.
This is their only market, so they're putting 100% resources into it. Everyone else is still testing the waters. I don't have a lot of faith in new upstarts either, it's a big barrier to entry. What's going to happen is the automakers will be forced to turn to Google/Waymo, IO, or Apple for help.
Let's reconvene in 2 years and see if you still feel that competition is on the horizon.
People will buy single usage vehicles all the time, even the roadster was a specific category. I'm a millennial, and while a lot of my peers know Tesla, they still are naive enough to think going from a RRS to the Model X was a down grade. Once Tesla starts really having more road presence, the EV market will take off. Especially when the millennial and new generation can reasonably afford one. The other car makers would be crazy to not get into that market share.
I think of the BMW X6 and the MB GLE Coupe, You'd think who is crazy enough to want it and why did MB copy it, well 1.5 billion is a good reason. When you say other manufactures are behind, they are, but have money to fast track and get over hurdles much faster than Tesla. Please google the EV plans from Audi, BMW and more notably Porsche. You'll realize they're no longer being slouches and taking Tesla seriously.
Tesla has built a brand. BMW and Porsche, no one takes them seriously. When we think EV, we think Tesla.
Isn't it on the right fender, though, on the I-Pace? Or have they moved it?
It is the direct opposite of the Tesla location, which means it works when you pull into a bay vs. back into it. I could see it working at Superchargers, no?
Not that I expect any such co-operation, just pondering the physics.
Looking at the spy shots, front left now.
Pre-Production Jaguar I-Pace Spied at the Nurburgring » AutoGuide.com News
Clearly any hopes from either side (Tesla fans that they could monetize SpC, or Jaguar fans they'd get access to what is the undisputed gold standard in en route charging), have gone
Personally I think this is a shame for broader EV adoption.
To be fair Tesla shifted a fair few Model S's before the Supercharger network became a practical reality.
Something like the I Pace, should on that basis sell as many cars as the S in the first year, and frankly that's all JLR need to sell.
Personally speaking the journeys to and from the service centre have eaten any annual time saving from the improved charging situation many times over, so in some ways it's a bit of a no-brainer for me.
What I expect will happen is those doing more miles will opt for the Model S/X, those low mileage drivers looking for an easy life will opt for the Jag/MB/Audi.
I agree that Tesla needs to address reliability, since spending all that time at the SC is ruining the whole experience of self-reliance. Oddly, giving great loaners is one way of helping until they can get reliability up there.
However, I believe that without a SuperCharger solution, the market is quite small. The number of Roadsters and S sold without a SuperCharger network were insignificant.
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