wallstguy
Member
To sum up my above post for those who don't want to read it....I'm saying what Tesla's been doing recently is bad both for car owners and investors.
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@AnxietyRanger and @wallstguy
There is no free lunch. You want Tesla to announce huge huge huge changes coming in Jan 1 - 2019?
(Don't be dumb and buy now!)
And these huge changes will be locked in with no more improvements until Jan 1 - 2022.
I'm dumping all my shares on market open Monday because we all know SP is going to 0.
I know you are way smarter than this to know there is no winners for everyone or anyone. The consumer needs due diligence for key upgrades and be accepting the car they take delivery on won't be as good as next quarters. That's why we got Tesla's in the first place.
But we get butt hurt when our neighbor has a better car but we don't care that our car is better than another neighbors.
I GET it that people love to min/max. Get the best car for the cheapest price with the longest window of technological superior possible. The best of us gets that for 6 months maybe.
Another way to look at it is with how fast min-maxxers get destroyed it makes those who are not as good at the game feel better.
There is no free lunch. You want Tesla to announce huge huge huge changes coming in Jan 1 - 2019?
(Don't be dumb and buy now!)
And these huge changes will be locked in with no more improvements until Jan 1 - 2022.
I'm dumping all my shares on market open Monday because we all know SP is going to 0.
I know you are way smarter than this to know there is no winners for everyone or anyone. The consumer needs due diligence for key upgrades and be accepting the car they take delivery on won't be as good as next quarters. That's why we got Tesla's in the first place.
But we get butt hurt when our neighbor has a better car but we don't care that our car is better than another neighbors.
I GET it that people love to min/max. Get the best car for the cheapest price with the longest window of technological superior possible. The best of us gets that for 6 months maybe.
Another way to look at it is with how fast min-maxxers get destroyed it makes those who are not as good at the game feel better.
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I am exploring the psychological phenomenon here and am trying to be as open and honest about it as possible. I have no problem with my neighbor having a better vehicle than me. What I am concerned is making successful purchases myself that I feel good about. With a Tesla I recognize a very large risk of failure in making a successful purchase that I feel good about. It raises the threshold of buying more.
It is certainly possible Tesla will never change this. I will take it into consideration in my own decisions as need be.
The thing is, though, I don't consider this innovating on a quarterly basis. How is it innovating to remove ventilated seats or adaptive spoilers? Or playing with free Supercharging availability time and again? Tesla lacks any kind of predictability, beyond doing things that maximize current quarterly deliveries.
I am of the opinion that innovation and customer happiness both would benefit from a more measured pace of introducing these features. Quality would go up and more well defined upgrade points would be introduced for those customers who care about such things.
I have given the example that last year Tesla could have e.g. combined Model S facelift, P100D and AP2 together as one upgrade, instead of spreading them out over three quarters. I don't think that would have hindered innovation and it would have made a clearer upgrade point.
Certainly that is true for Tesla, who was busy delivering old product on the last day of June and then the first day fo July change the product. I'm sure they'll whine about us not liking it.
You are right, I don't care about Supercharging. I can see why some do, but that's no consideration for me.
I did, I got a very nice Model X given the events. There is not a single ounce of regret or selfish whining in these comments on my part, though there is genuine (and selfish) concern about what to do in the future.
Mostly I'm sympathetic to those who keep getting burned by these events and this policy and I am discussing it in the hopes that maybe in time it effects some change. We know Tesla reads.
It is obvious there is no pleasing everyone, with any policy. But there are the extremes and there are reasonable middle roads. I think Tesla is in an extreme at the moment given the random product changes (both additions and removals) and quarter games/demand levers, and for customer satisfaction purposes seeking a more middle road might be wise. Even you list some things related to the Supercharging demand levers you found displeasing. This is part of that.
Not me. I got into Tesla because it was the first large-battery BEV that made sense. I didn't get into a Tesla so that my purchase would be outdated the next quarter. When I buy a new car, I would prefer the "investment" to keep making sense to myself in the ways that matter to me. And for that, I would appreciate clearer upgrade points, and reasonable ability to time my upgrades accordingly. It has got nothing to do with my neighbor, but with a sense that I made the purchase at the right time, not the wrong time. I would like to be able to do it right.
Tesla is certainly free to ignore the request, but I am merely explaining what I as a customer would prefer and would gravitate towards. If I'm thinking a purchase is likely to fail to reach what matters to me, it simply makes sense to reconsider that idea and Tesla is introducing an adoption obstacle in a customer like me.
Just saying like it is. Not saying I wouldn't buy a Tesla when I would need to, but just explaing the emotional effect. Already on TMC we are seeing some members keeping their current cars longer as they know every quarter brings something new anyway, so why buy now... Waiting a quarter is such a short time (compared to an annual cycle for example), so why not wait one more... So some of the urge to upgrade gets lost in that.
Like a boiling frog, it will boil to death by the constant small upgrades of heat, instead of being thrown into - ahem - one big boiling upgrade point and jumping.
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I know, I know, don't let the Jaguar dealership door hit me on the way in.
I will be careful. I promise. Just like @smac.
In fairness, I'm really torn.
Specifically relating to innovation:
On one hand I see JLR (who are just down the road from me, which maybe has a subconscious effect), invest in local colleges, build up communities, significant research investment, etc. all with the aim to build a long term sustainable business.
On the other hand I see the Tesla Silicon Valley approach, which breeds risk and short term-ism but also with that can come high reward, and commercial acceptance of new ideas.
My experience of working in both is the true benefit of the SV approach is from huge ability to promote and raise funds to successfully commercialise the academic/preparatory work of others, rather than pure innovation, however in growth stage the pressures are not on this stuff, more about "financial optics" . (N.B. Here I am excluding the skunk works side-projects of those mega companies that have made massive profits to re-invest e.g. Google/Apple/Microsoft).
Personally I'm encouraged to see some of the patents coming through JLR right now in the EV space, and I think of all the manufacturers of ICE's they are most likely to actually move the BEV market forward right now, if anything above and beyond Tesla. Simply because they seem to be working smarter *, rather than trying to fix every problem with scale and ever more money. (* I encourage people to go google quite how much R&D Tata has put into things like reluctance motors, heat pumps, cooling techniques... it really is very impressive.)
Equally I've worked (well built up) businesses with longer term horizons, that have ploughed money back in through reinvestment of profits, and I think they need a fair shake of the stick too. In many cases these are the innovation powerhouses, that get bought up by the more aggressively funded businesses to drive the bigger firms innovation quota.
If Tesla had a Model Y AWD (I was going to say with performance 0-60 times, but that is now moot) to buy Q1 2018. I suspect they'd still get my money. I appreciate the animal they are (I've worked at senior levels in those businesses) and I can understand the decisions being made as they trudge up the "Slow Ramp Of Death" (to borrow a SaaS term).
On the other hand I'm still "rooting for the underdog" JLR, it's in my nature. (Who would of thought I'd be saying JLR were the underdog to Tesla 5 years ago!!! That in itself is a huge testament to what Elon has achieved!!) .
So for me the I-Pace is ahead, right product, right time, and better fit for my personal feelings on how to run a business. Fans of Tesla can however take some solace in the fact without Tesla I wouldn't even be considering an EV.
(Apologies for a long and rambling off topic post).
Some people accuse me of being balanced... mainly because I have a chip on both shoulders
I feel good about my X, and I still like Tesla. But I am also very discourage to purchase another Tesla in the future. They can do whatever they want, but I don't see this is good business practice, and sustainable marketing strategy.
I never got anything for free in my life and I never expect anything for free. I worked hard all my life for my things, I can't afford trading in my Tesla every 6 months like some of you who supports Tesla no matter what.
I never got anything for free in my life and I never expect anything for free. I worked hard all my life for my things, I can't afford trading in my Tesla every 6 months like some of you who supports Tesla no matter what.
Indeed.
Some will answer that you shouldn't, you should just enjoy your existing car. It is perfectly valid advise, of course.
The only problem with that is it isn't that simple or always realistic. Cars are an emotional purchase (and a lot of car sales depend on that emotion) and getting emotional things right is tricky. If a brand is failing to create positive emotions in us for whatever reasons, there can be some effect on our future purchasing behavior.
IMO Tesla would be wise to re-consider this policy. Advertise. Put some cars on a mountain road and film them from a drone or something, if demand is lagging.
I agree, but then that's back tracking on the narrative. Damned if they do, damned if they don't.
Personally I'd be happy if they just said screw the share price, let the shareholders carry the can for a bit, and let the customers take a break from being the whipping boys.
I just don't understand where you guys are coming from. For example, why does it matter whether Tesla bundles improvements into a single upgrade or releases them piecemeal over a couple of quarters? If anything, it seems like it would be better for consumers to get piecemeal improvements because some improvements will be released sooner (not delayed by bundled improvements that are not yet ready for release). To me, that is what maximizes value for consumers. I guess we just have very different priorities. I definitely would not prescribe ill intent to how Tesla manages upgrades.
@b team, I agree _if_ the improvements were rolled retrospectively.
The way Tesla are currently operating is pretty one-sided.
They refuse to discount (at least officially) on "old stock", then immediately drop significant improvements to new stock as and when they feel the need to boost sales.
One crucial difference this time round, and in my view how blazoned they have become in this tactic, is they haven't even jacked the price up.
Historically the pattern was old stock -> new stock with a price increase due to new features.
Now it's just old stock -> new stock. If you are the wrong side of the line, well tough, and no feel good factor you paid a little less.
The way Tesla are currently operating is pretty one-sided.
They refuse to discount (at least officially) on "old stock", then immediately drop significant improvements to new stock as and when they feel the need to boost sales.
One crucial difference this time round, and in my view how blazoned they have become in this tactic, is they haven't even jacked the price up.
Historically the pattern was old stock -> new stock with a price increase due to new features.
Now it's just old stock -> new stock. If you are the wrong side of the line, well tough, and no feel good factor you paid a little less.
I'd say to Tesla, backtrack on the narrative, then. Obviously their demand is not inherent (as in happening without levers) anymore, so that narrative is gone anyway. Try some ads. When times change, don't get stuck to old principles that no longer apply...
What's great about car ads is that they make current owners all mushy and gooey about the car they have, while attracting new bueyers. There is none of the hurt towards the existing customer, quite the contrary, as many of these demand levers have...
wallstguy
Member
Which is funny, because what got me to buy a Tesla is the sales rep, I quote: "A Tesla from 4 years ago is the same as a Tesla today, everything in a Tesla can be upgraded, and you'll never have to worry about that again".
Here I am bought 2 Tesla's within 6 months cause that statement didn't hold...
Obviously it matters quite a bit to a certain group of customers. Imagine that iPhone were updated multiple times every quarter, instead of once a year. When do you buy one (if you're into them)? With an iPhone, you can buy it when they launch a new one and then be content for a year with that. Then again next year you get a clear opportunity to decide do you want the new one...
With Tesla you order one, it will change multiple times over the course of your order time probably (especially for international customers whose orders necessarily span a couple of quarters), and then everything changes again a few days after you take delivery... no matter at which time of the year you order.
Grouping changes creates more distinct product upgrade points in time, while also reducing the constant change that make it hard to decide when to pull the trigger. It serves the customer who would prefer not to miss out on a change. It lessens unpleasant surprises and adds to customer satisfaction.
Now Tesla changes the product every 1-2 months, sometimes even more frequently - which creates this sort of eternal Osborne cycle where something is always just around the corner (not a year away, but days or weeks away). If that were even 6-12 months, it would be much easier to plan upgrades as a customer. And if you don't care about planning updates, then you won't care either way.
Well, ill intent is a strong word. Tesla is using product changes and secrecy as demand levers and obviously with self-interest at heart. I, for one, am explaing how I feel about that as a customer and what my reactions to it are with the self-interest of myself and people like myself at heart.
You will get zero argument from me over that sentiment.
Personally though I think they will wait until post Model 3 launch before changing tack on the Model S advertising strategy. It would be more "optically acceptable".
hill
high fiber member
Great . . . my better ½ can get to all future red lights, even quicker ... in stead of > 20k supercharger speeds ... Oh well
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You and me both, brother. I don't drive the Tesla... wife does but luckily she drives it like a Prius.Great . . . my better ½ can get to all future red lights, even quicker ... in stead of > 20k supercharger speeds ... Oh well
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