What I've seen, and I've observed is very mixed behavior from AP/FSD.
I'm not going to cover EAP as it's only a temporary thing that's not worth covering as FSD covers it.
FSD simply can't be judged from how it performs now. We simply won't know until the rewrite is released in the next 3 months or so. In fact I would advise people AGAINST trying it. Just wait until the rewrite release, and then try it a couple months later.
Now I doubt the rewrite is going to suddenly fix everything, but it should fix a lot of the issues that are caused by the car not being aware of the concept of time. This lack of knowledge of what was before or a prediction of what's after is really messing up the behavior of FSD features like the auto-lane change.
For example if you're in the left lane of a 3 lane highway, and a semi is in the right lane what are the odds of a successful driver initiated auto-lane change into the middle lane with the current version? In my testing it was like 30-50% which is pretty terrible. Lots of times it would cancel the lane change or delay it where it got confused where the semi was. In testing with only 2 lanes it was fine.
The steady progress of updates/fixes/etc will keep enough new demand that the price won't come down. Instead what's going to happen is the continuation of what's been happening. Where a SW release will be followed by a slight increase in the FSD price.
The car doesn't have to achieve actual L4 driving for it to be worth <$10K to a lot of people. It simply needs to significantly improve some experience to justify it for people that don't like those situations. For example I don't like 4 way stops with lots of cars going different directions. I would mind them less if I had even a simple bing when it was my turn to verify my own decision.
There are other things like reverse summons. I admit that I don't like parking lots. I just don't because there are so many things going on.
The other thing Tesla will do is they'll keep reintroducing a middle step (aka EPA) to get people to step up to something that isn't FSD, but gets them closer to FSD.
Basically Tesla is going to milk FSD for all its worth as they get closer.
Will L4 actually be achieved with the current Sensor suite? I doubt it. I agree with the OP that it will require much more work especially on the infrastructure/regulation side of things that Tesla doesn't have much control over.
It very well could peak at $10K, and then start falling once competitors release L3 EV's. Or even hands free L2 EV's.
But, it probably won't drop until Tesla is on a new hardware version and they'll tell people with the older hardware "tough luck, but regulatory made us introduce these other sensors or V2X". The new HW will demand the premium price, and the old FSD will go on sale.
Existing things go down, but new things hardly ever do because there is always a new promise.
Is the new Apple watch any cheaper than the old Apple watch?
I'm not going to cover EAP as it's only a temporary thing that's not worth covering as FSD covers it.
FSD simply can't be judged from how it performs now. We simply won't know until the rewrite is released in the next 3 months or so. In fact I would advise people AGAINST trying it. Just wait until the rewrite release, and then try it a couple months later.
Now I doubt the rewrite is going to suddenly fix everything, but it should fix a lot of the issues that are caused by the car not being aware of the concept of time. This lack of knowledge of what was before or a prediction of what's after is really messing up the behavior of FSD features like the auto-lane change.
For example if you're in the left lane of a 3 lane highway, and a semi is in the right lane what are the odds of a successful driver initiated auto-lane change into the middle lane with the current version? In my testing it was like 30-50% which is pretty terrible. Lots of times it would cancel the lane change or delay it where it got confused where the semi was. In testing with only 2 lanes it was fine.
The steady progress of updates/fixes/etc will keep enough new demand that the price won't come down. Instead what's going to happen is the continuation of what's been happening. Where a SW release will be followed by a slight increase in the FSD price.
The car doesn't have to achieve actual L4 driving for it to be worth <$10K to a lot of people. It simply needs to significantly improve some experience to justify it for people that don't like those situations. For example I don't like 4 way stops with lots of cars going different directions. I would mind them less if I had even a simple bing when it was my turn to verify my own decision.
There are other things like reverse summons. I admit that I don't like parking lots. I just don't because there are so many things going on.
The other thing Tesla will do is they'll keep reintroducing a middle step (aka EPA) to get people to step up to something that isn't FSD, but gets them closer to FSD.
Basically Tesla is going to milk FSD for all its worth as they get closer.
Will L4 actually be achieved with the current Sensor suite? I doubt it. I agree with the OP that it will require much more work especially on the infrastructure/regulation side of things that Tesla doesn't have much control over.
It very well could peak at $10K, and then start falling once competitors release L3 EV's. Or even hands free L2 EV's.
But, it probably won't drop until Tesla is on a new hardware version and they'll tell people with the older hardware "tough luck, but regulatory made us introduce these other sensors or V2X". The new HW will demand the premium price, and the old FSD will go on sale.
Existing things go down, but new things hardly ever do because there is always a new promise.
Is the new Apple watch any cheaper than the old Apple watch?
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