Ok, I just got back. I climbed into my Deleoran, took it out on the freeway (no traffic on Sunday morning) got it going 88 MPH and went one year into the future and checked. Tesla is still around, but there are some complaints about the wait times at the Superchargers.
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Based on the quality of our 2016 A6 and the customer support from AoA, that is one outcome I certainly hope won't happen!
Although, even Audi would have a hard time falsifying emission testing for the Tesla products!
mrkymarc
Member
The OP may be right but I think the theory of failure is wrong. The bottleneck could linger longer than expected, but the solution would be to just throw money at the problem. That could come from debt or stock offering or, worst case Elon’s checkbook. The problem would come if to get through the bottleneck the cost to produce the car increases drastically. Then it wouldn’t matter how many they produced, they wouldn’t be able to pay back debt, etc. After a few quarters with bad reported margins on the 3 the stock would start to tank which would prevent more cash raise and invite takeover bids.
The other way it could happen would be extreme reliability or safety issues that would overwhelm Tesla’s service infrastructure and tank the trust in the brand. This would cause many cancelled orders and dried up demand preventing ever paying back the investment in the 3.
Now, I don’t think these scenarios are likely. Elon and the team at Tesla are obviously very smart and capable. But the accelerated production ramp of 500k 2018, 1mill 2020 which doubled the original plan was a high risk/high reward strategy.
The other way it could happen would be extreme reliability or safety issues that would overwhelm Tesla’s service infrastructure and tank the trust in the brand. This would cause many cancelled orders and dried up demand preventing ever paying back the investment in the 3.
Now, I don’t think these scenarios are likely. Elon and the team at Tesla are obviously very smart and capable. But the accelerated production ramp of 500k 2018, 1mill 2020 which doubled the original plan was a high risk/high reward strategy.
arondaniel
Il Sessanta Caricato
Our willingness to wait reveals the value we place on what we’re waiting for. — Charles Stanley, pastor and author
Garlan Garner
Banned
I love Charles Stanley. What a wonderful quote for many other reasons than this.
+1
It all depends how fast competitors scale. Without competition Tesla will not be in trouble as reservation holders will not cancel en masse.
Informed people all knew about the Elon Years concept and only partial fools will have gotten rid of their current cars so soon without accounting for that. I only joined TMC a little over a year ago and knew what was going to happen.
Because many reservation holders are going "upmarket" and spending a bit more, Tesla should make sure it's in-house financing and leasing (especially in Canada where cheapest bank auto loans are 5% or more) is competitive and not too high that it prices some would be buyers out. A 4% interest on a $40k car is substantial, especially for prime borrowers.
Waiting isn’t the issue. ROI and cash flow are the medium term issue. How many capital raises are too many?
Musk has dug himself a bit of a hole here with the Alien Dreadnaught b.s. He needs to prove he can be a mass market car manufacturer.
I don’t recall GM going through “production hell” with the Bolt.
One way to change direction is to sell or partner Tesla with Ford or Audi or whoever. Someone that already has the automobile production process down to a science. Then they can turn the 20,000 units a month out and get things back on track.
Really? I’m buying a Tesla so I never have to deal with an ‘Audi, Ford or whoever’ ever again. As for them having the ‘automobile production process’ down to a science pull your head out of the sand and look around.
There are some distinctions to maintain. As my prior post suggested, I'm no fan of Audi, but the problems which plague many OEMs are engineering issues (although far less than a decade ago...all OEM trendlines are up). I have to agree with Hitman007 that most large-scale OEMs do have the production process (which I interpret as component and final assembly) well understood and well managed in high-volume scenarios. When considering issues each of us have had in the past with various other brands, we have to keep the root cause in mind...is the problem the way a part functions or the way in which it was installed into the vehicle? Even a rattle may be an engineering issue related to part design versus an assembly issue at the plant. Tesla seems to have strength in engineering design. Current reports suggest the problem is in the manufacturing, whether on a component or final assembly (including framing of body-in-white sheetmetal), and there would be lots of outside help which might be beneficial.
X Fan
Active Member
X is my favorite vehicle, ever and may Tesla evolve to be a large scale Transportation Company!
I've placed two orders for the 3 (and I own their stock) so I'm banking on Tesla surviving. However, there is no question that there is risk.
Elon has stretched himself beyond what most humans are capable of and clearly Tesla is at a key point in its history. The 3 must succeed to have a future since all the S & X have accomplished is deliver prolonged losses.
I also worry about the volume impact to service and charging infrastructure and new vehicle risk tied to unproven parts (a simpler vehicle but still some new parts vs. previous vehicles).
Time will tell......I hope for the best.
btw: hitman007: you will become more optimistic if you move to Naples, FL...it was voted the happiest, healthiest city in the U.S. recently.
The happiest, healthiest city in the US is...
I've placed two orders for the 3 (and I own their stock) so I'm banking on Tesla surviving. However, there is no question that there is risk.
Elon has stretched himself beyond what most humans are capable of and clearly Tesla is at a key point in its history. The 3 must succeed to have a future since all the S & X have accomplished is deliver prolonged losses.
I also worry about the volume impact to service and charging infrastructure and new vehicle risk tied to unproven parts (a simpler vehicle but still some new parts vs. previous vehicles).
Time will tell......I hope for the best.
btw: hitman007: you will become more optimistic if you move to Naples, FL...it was voted the happiest, healthiest city in the U.S. recently.
The happiest, healthiest city in the US is...
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I love Naples! I am only 2 hours away. And for the record my Model X was the most fun and most interesting car I have ever owned and I have owned many. I trade every year since 1984. If they can get the parts issue worked out for the X I will probably buy another one if the company survives. I would like to get a model 3 but if it takes 4 years to get one I will have long moved on.. I am not good at waiting.
Tesla has hired senior manufacturing expertise. With enough resources and limited interference from Musk there is no reason they can't build high volume production.
The question is whether they have had enough time and enough resources. We shall see.
Color me confused...
You seem to be saying making people wait will cause Tesla to fail...
You seem to be saying, Tesla should have made people wait.
Only link is deposits. So is your premise that, because Tesla allowed people to place a refundable 1k deposits on a vehicle long before it was ready, and it is taking some additional time, they (and everyone else) will never buy the car?
You seem to be saying making people wait will cause Tesla to fail...
You seem to be saying, Tesla should have made people wait.
Only link is deposits. So is your premise that, because Tesla allowed people to place a refundable 1k deposits on a vehicle long before it was ready, and it is taking some additional time, they (and everyone else) will never buy the car?
Tesla’s top manufacturing executive departs at the worst possible time
There are others who left over time...word gets around our automotive community in Michigan...
This can be successful, but they could also use more experience...
I'm pretty sure that none of the Americans that hate to wait, put $1000 down on a car the KNEW they wouldn't get without waiting at least 2 years.
The one that will be mentioned, is, no doubt, that they are all foreign companies. So they are saying that Americans specifically are so stupid or incompetent that they can't produce a new car company. Not even with a South African leading them.
Thank you kindly.
It would be more interesting if they worked with Magna Steyer to help with production while they focus on engineering and design.
Fellow Michigan automotive alumni here. Do you think that article title was way off? The guy who left was the head/ founder of the German automation company Tesla purchased. Unless he was waist deep in the daily engineering of the items for Tesla, I don't see a significant impact. (especially don't see him as the most important "top" executive, but I also don't have a lot of insight into his role, hence my question)
If they were still a contractor, would it even be news?
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