ProphetM
Member
Not sure if serious with this prediction, but in any case it doesn't really make sense as Audi is a unit of VW, not a separate company that would merge with another.
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Not sure if serious with this prediction, but in any case it doesn't really make sense as Audi is a unit of VW, not a separate company that would merge with another.
EXOTIC1
Member
Wife decided to skip her model 3 and take refund
Early line waiter/tesla ms owners. She's getting a 2012 panamera turbo with warranty for about the same price the model 3 would cost us and the panny is a much much bettter car overall. Can't even compare the two. Good move on her part.
Early line waiter/tesla ms owners. She's getting a 2012 panamera turbo with warranty for about the same price the model 3 would cost us and the panny is a much much bettter car overall. Can't even compare the two. Good move on her part.
yay. I hope a few tens of thousands of other line waiters, early-online reservers and owners with reservations do the same
edit: and employees/family members of employees! cancel, fockers!
Hope she enjoys the Panamera though, truly. Not the car for me but I respect 'em.
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Boy, that's gonna freak Tesla out. Probably bring the number of reservations down to something like 485,279. Yikes!
Boy, that's gonna freak Tesla out. Probably bring the number of reservations down to something like 485,279. Yikes!
The only number of reservations that matters to me is the number ahead of me in line for a first production car. I'm ready nowwwwwwww…
Two totally different cars. Model 3 is my ideal car in every way, Panamera T is not even on my radar - not my cuppa tea.
You're right that you can't even compare the two in that you can't even get in a Model 3 unless you happen to know someone who has one. Weird that someone would think that they could be making quality judgments on a vehicle that they've never been in - excepting through the quality judgments in reviews of those who have been in the vehicle, which have been almost uniformly very positive.
N5329K
Active Member
I said this a long, long time ago: the Model 3 is the make or break product for Tesla. A successful launch will change the entire auto world forever. A failed launch (no matter if the cause is delays, quality issues, strikes, bad suppliers, recalls, earthquakes, whatever) will likely return the company to a niche manufacturer, or a former manufacturer. That would't necessarily mean the end of product support. I drive a car built by a bankrupt manufacturer (British Leyland) , and parts are cheap and ubiquitous. So if Tesla does go down the tubes I expect someone would step up to support the fleet. Not so sure about over-the-air updates.
Anyway, the OP's prediction is out there and there's a non-zero chance he may be proven correct. I don't think the odds favor his prediction (yet), but it won't take a year to learn if he was right. More like 6 months. And a truly serious problem with the ramp or the car could start a "bank run" of reservation holders for the exits any time at all.
EM knows all this. Everyone else gets to find out.
Robin
Anyway, the OP's prediction is out there and there's a non-zero chance he may be proven correct. I don't think the odds favor his prediction (yet), but it won't take a year to learn if he was right. More like 6 months. And a truly serious problem with the ramp or the car could start a "bank run" of reservation holders for the exits any time at all.
EM knows all this. Everyone else gets to find out.
Robin
An old German engineer that sells his company as he prepared for retirement doesn't really count, does it? Musk/Tesla likely cut off all his German automotive relationships he had spent years building. It is not surprising that he would be unhappy and leave.
The issue is not so much the individual, as it is the disruption and turnover, per se. Direction changes, decisions change, rework occurs when new people replace the prior approach with "their way". I've seen this over and over with engineering direction, and the same would apply to manufacturing (which is usually more stable). The greatest problem which beguiles the entire industry is late/repeating change (You know the term CNs?) and the greatest stimulusfor change is personnel turnover.
That would have been a very good move. Magna Steyr is now assembling 5 Series for BMW, among a variety of other past contracts for OEMs.
I wouldn't say the model 3 is my ideal car… there's a lot I'd change about it, if they wanted to let me dictate a bunch of changes without regard for the wants of others, but it's pretty good on paper.
Oh dear. You should go research how long it takes Ford or Audi or any current automotive manufacturer to produce a new car on a new line. Partnering with anyone right now would guarantee adding 1-2 years to the production process at least. That would guarantee bankruptcy and failure.
Why is adding time a solution?
Come on legacy car makers, come and grab a piece of the 250-mile AWD BEV pie.
Until then, I really have no choice but to leave my $1k reservation deposit.
Until then, I really have no choice but to leave my $1k reservation deposit.
A typical program from approval to V1 is 180 weeks, including parallel development of the vehicle and facilitizing the plant, although some may do better, and when the clock starts can be a matter of debate if the platform is carryover or new. If a partner assisted with M3 as a consultant now, or under the hypothetical of asset purchase under bankruptcy, it would not be a program restart...it would be to take the program forward from status, likely with much of the current team, plus new management. There would not be a reason for a delay of such magnitude.
But it would also bypass the factory as a product level of improvement Elon is going for.
In the general discussion, Tesla is not a one trick pony dependent on the 3 in the short term. Delays hurt the bottom line, but unless the car is impossible to build/ make a profit on, I think they will be alright.
MotoEvCA
Member
Look forward to revisiting this conversation with you in six months to a year
Americans hate waiting for anything
When one resorts to generalities one tends to lose any credibility very early.
- Each startup you listed had ongoing problems with body structures, engines, and core reliability - the vehicle failed to run. Most (not all) Tesla consumer issues to-date tend to be trim alignment, and part (supplier) problems. The company is growing very fast and this always causes growing pains throughout the company (sales, service, marketing, finance). FCA is working hard to maintain market share and customer relevance despite government assistance.
- Many Americans are intelligent and understand young Tesla is growing / learning the business and is making improvements over time. Fact: Ford has been in business over 100 years and is still grappling with quality control
- Consistently getting customers to 'pony up' thousands of dollars in reservations for a vehicle is a condition any auto manufacturer would love to 'suffer from'. It demonstrates a vote of confidence and sends a message to the investor community.
- GM has had two or more attempts to attract customers to their PHEV / BEV offerings and there is no problem meeting the relatively low demand despite having a 200+ AER vehicle to offer.
I want them to succeed and help change the planet
Glad to see you want Tesla to succeed and I would suggest investing more time to understand the automotive industry, the challenges ALL manufacturers face, and the effective risk management approaches Tesla has taken in regard to the Model 3 production release.
I would recommend the following podcast: The Tesla Show
A very intelligent take on Tesla, the industry, and EV competitor test drives.
Nissan Leaf Drive Anxiety and Model 3 Details
That argue works both ways. People saying 3 is better. Also some people need car now... not whenever it's ready (window will not be accurate.. willing to bet large amount of money on that)
I would agree with this, except you are missing the point of what is actually going on. Its funny how so many people are shorting Tesla because they do no think they will be able to produce so many model 3's as fast as Elon recently claimed they would be able to. I'm able to do quite a lot of things that I do not do, even though I said I would do them; I just ran into other issues and changed priorities, etc. Nonetheless, do not forget that originally Elon had stated the goal was to produce half a million cars by 2020 (including S and X, not just 3's). If they get to make close to 400k model 3's by the end of 2020, they would have accomplished the original goal which many thought they couldn't do. If they had only 20-30k reservations last year, they would had been just fine as well. Then the reservations would had started to go up right now when the cars started to ship just like it was for model s. It was only when they got close to 400k reservations so early that they decided to push harder (and those ~400k reservations were expecting 2019-2020 deliveries). How is that a bad thing? If you know you will be able to sell so much of something, but then realize your demand is higher than expected, why not sell more as soon as you possible and make more money earlier rather than later?
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