No Model III until 2019?

[green1]

I was just basing it on the fact that the price of a Tesla has not fallen.

The price hasn't fallen, but neither has the profit margin, and the number of "toys" has increased.

That said, Tesla's price for batteries probably hasn't changed all that much in the past year or two, They got a great deal early on and it probably included provisions for a lot of cells at that price. Their next big drop will be GF.

 

[strider]

Yes the gigafactory will be production cells soon but they aren't going to see dramatic cost saving for 4-5 years at least. So my guess is that they'll start producing "highly optioned" versions of Model 3 in 2018 and then the cheaper versions later in 2018 and into 2019. They can bury more expensive battery packs in cars with more profit margin and then by the time they sell the cheaper ones the battery prices will be coming down due to gigafactory efficiencies. They already did something similar w/ Model S where they produced P85 and S85 models first and then 60's later.

 

[JRP3]

I was just basing it on the fact that the price of a Tesla has not fallen.

You see a lot of highly coveted luxury performance sedans that cant meet demand dropping their prices?

 

[scaesare]

I was just basing it on the fact that the price of a Tesla has not fallen.

I don't think you can draw the conclusion that he cost of batteries haven't fallen just because the price of a Model S remains the same.

We all know that Tesla has been pushing towards profitability in general, and specifically to get enough margin so that they can remain profitable with out ZEV credits. Thus any cost savings they may be able to make over the life of the car (including, but not limited to, the battery pack) are likely helping them with that goal.

Not to mention that just because the cost of the particular model of cell Tesla is using may be roughly the same as it was 2-3 years ago doesn't mean that newer cells with different chemistries, packaging, etc... may have a better dollar-per-kWh today.

Manufacturers do this all the time... they are able find ways to cut manufacturing costs or acquire parts more cheaply, but that doesn't necessarily mean they are constantly reducing the price to the consumer.

I've seen nothing to indicate that the annual 7-8% improvement in battery performance that Tesla has often spoke to isn't continuing. And with the gigafactory coming, I expect that may accelerate...

 

[Pollux]

Hi, @RobStark,

The front drivetrain of the P85D will be the drivetrain of the base Model 3.

No falcon doors,no pano roof, no automated door handles, no complex new technology on the base Model 3.

On what basis do you make these assertions?

Thanks,
Alan

 

[mspohr]

Just read a report of an interview of Elon by Der Spiegel... among other things he said that Tesla will have a battery factory in Germany in 5-6 years. Looks like they are making serious investments in batteries.

 

[v12 to 12v]

Tesla has more than doubled the number of employees since the Model S introduction to over 10k.

The front drivetrain of the P85D will be the drivetrain of the base Model 3.

No falcon doors,no pano roof, no automated door handles, no complex new technology on the base Model 3.

I am pretty sure they will start deliveries in 2017. 10k or 100k deliveries in 2017 I am less confident about.

I tend to agree. I doubt that the Model 3 will have any unusual engineering challenges like the S and X had. They have lots of good experience under their belts now. They also have those "hidden cards". The AWD and Autopilot came out much faster than even Tesla expected a year ago.

It will be a simpler car with a lower price for a larger audience as the main objective. I heard a couple years ago that Tesla was aiming to have the Gen 3 as their "bread and butter" platform and the Model S, Model X, and Roadster as their gravy. Their strategy could have changed since then. We can only speculate.

I think Tesla will be able to get the car into production quickly. I have more questions about how prepared the distribution side of the business will be for an enormous jump in volume.

 

[richkae]

Why? Because at the present time most people I know consider Tesla a company that builds small numbers of expensive electric cars for rich people. That is not a formula for long term success.

Sure it is. If they were satisfied with that, they could succeed that way. Nobody knocks Porsche or Ferrari for building small numbers of expensive cars for rich people. Tesla wants more than that.

 

[Canuck]

I don't think you can draw the conclusion that he cost of batteries haven't fallen just because the price of a Model S remains the same.

Tesla is trying to attain profitability. Don't expect any price cuts until the Model 3. (Even if the batteries were free.)

Yes, you are both probably right but I'll still stay with my prediction of Model 3 in 2018 at the earliest. Too bad we can't take bets. I used to do that and bet against my home team. That way when I lost (and being a Canucks' fan that's a lot -- we've never won the Cup!), at least I won the bet. And this is also one of those bets I hope to lose.

 

[scaesare]

Yes, you are both probably right but I'll still stay with my prediction of Model 3 in 2018 at the earliest. Too bad we can't take bets. I used to do that and bet against my home team. That way when I lost (and being a Canucks' fan that's a lot -- we've never won the Cup!), at least I won the bet. And this is also one of those bets I hope to lose.

Not seeing Gen3 until 2018 could very well be... there are many unknowns, with the gigafactory being a significant one. But predicating any future speculation of delay on an assertion of past performance of battery prices remaining static with no evidence of such, and likely evidence to the contrary, doesn't bolster that argument much.

 

[MassModel3]

One thing to consider with respect to the battery design is that right now, Panasonic has to deliver a predetermined number of batteries to Tesla. This likely means that many major redesigns to take advantage of newer technologies might not always be put into production. Just because technology improves doesn't necessarily mean that the physical product improves. The Gigafactory could, ultimately, be an opportunity for Panasonic to completely revamp their design process to include technological improvements that are difficult to implement in their existing factories. New GF batteries in 2016 could be far superior to what's simultaneously coming out of Panasonic Japan.

The front drivetrain of the P85D will be the drivetrain of the base Model 3.

What I had seen simply said "the front motor" of the D would be used for the Model 3. What it didn't specify was the front motor from which version. So it could either be the 188 Hp front motor or the 221 Hp motor. Maybe both for an AWD version of the Model 3.

I was just basing it on the fact that the price of a Tesla has not fallen.

As for Model S pricing -- I don't think it will ever come down. I'm sure that Tesla will simply continue to improve upon the Model S and build more features into the same price. Besides, the Model S is financing the Model 3 and the Supercharger network. And there will always be people willing to pay top dollar for the Models S and X, leaving no imperative for Tesla to drop the price. The Model 3, on the other hand, needs to be priced much closer to cost to sell the numbers they anticipate.

 

[Breezy]

I think you guys are underestimating how difficult it is to design and build a mass market vehicle profitably. It's more challenging to produce a quality product at a lower price, not less challenging. Minimizing superficially "complex technology" doesn't help, because it's the cost-minimizing design and production itself that's complex.

 

[GenIIIBuyer]

I recently folded and bought my first car, as I can't wait until 2019/2020 to have a car. Bought a used 2013 Hyundai Sonata, will drive it until GenIII becomes a reality.

 

[MassModel3]

I recently folded and bought my first car, as I can't wait until 2019/2020 to have a car.

It seems the Model 3 is likely pushed back to the second half of 2017, but I can't imagine that year finishing out without it going into production.

 

[strider]

It seems the Model 3 is likely pushed back to the second half of 2017, but I can't imagine that year finishing out without it going into production.

You're dreaming. Model X was pushed back until end of 2015. There's no way they'll have Model 3 out until 2018.

 

[MassModel3]

You're dreaming. Model X was pushed back until end of 2015. There's no way they'll have Model 3 out until 2018.

Just because I'm dreaming about it doesn't mean it won't happen. This GQ interview with Elon Musk, published today, still states that the Model 3 will be out in 2017. Although there is no direct quote to that from Elon, I'd be amazed if it wasn't discussed.

The Model X is a far more complex machine than the Model S, and I don't think even Tesla was ready for how hard mass producing it would be. But Elon being Elon, now that they've said they're going to introduce certain things, he's refusing to do any less even if it means pushing back production. To make the 35K price point, the Model 3 will be a far less complex vehicle, built on technologies already in the Model S.

And there is absolutely no way that Tesla is waiting for the designers to finish the Model X before moving over to the Model 3. What makes you think they can't design both in tandem? Of course they can!

 

[mikes_fsd]

And there is absolutely no way that Tesla is waiting for the designers to finish the Model X before moving over to the Model 3.

Designers are not working on the Model X at this point. It is the mechanical, process, production engineers that are working on the Model X at this point.

 

[stopcrazypp]

It seems the Model 3 is likely pushed back to the second half of 2017, but I can't imagine that year finishing out without it going into production.

I might have to join you, I'm pretty sure the really old used car I am driving right now won't last until the end of 2017, so I might have to get another used car or new car before then. As for delays, it might happen, but currently I don't think anyone can say *for sure* it will happen. We'll have to see how the Gigafactory construction goes.

 

[MassModel3]

Designers are not working on the Model X at this point. It is the mechanical, process, production engineers that are working on the Model X at this point.

...and I'm confident that a similar group is working intently on the Model 3. :biggrin:

The delays of the Model X show a problem meeting deadlines, sure, but it in no way means that the Model 3 is getting pushed back. Maybe it will, maybe it won't, but the Model 3 is NOT dependent on the Model X hitting the streets.

 

[Merrill]

I think that all this production timeline for the gen 3 will be based on an affordable battery pack, without this they will not be able to reach the $35,000 price point. This pack will have to be developed before the design stage so IMO everything hinges on the above.