Told ya so. The problem with Petersen's articles is that generally they take more or less correct little factoids and yet paint a totally wrong picture. The fact is that Tesla would never have made a profit this quarter without larger than expected ZEV credits. But guess what, they weren't intending to make a profit this quarter. This is an unexpected boon that puts them in a stronger position. They are still on schedule to make a profit later this year when it was originally predicted, but of course Petersen doesn't believe that. But the publicity of profit and general feeling of a company firing on all cylinders does help sell a lot more cars, which is what matters. Success breeds success.
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Told ya so. The problem with Petersen's articles is that generally they take more or less correct little factoids and yet paint a totally wrong picture. The fact is that Tesla would never have made a profit this quarter without larger than expected ZEV credits. But guess what, they weren't intending to make a profit this quarter. This is an unexpected boon that puts them in a stronger position. They are still on schedule to make a profit later this year when it was originally predicted, but of course Petersen doesn't believe that. But the publicity of profit and general feeling of a company firing on all cylinders does help sell a lot more cars, which is what matters. Success breeds success.
jeff_adams
Member
Citizen-T
Active Member
If I recall, some $20 ago JP said something like...oh what was it? "Tesla has limited upside?"
Yeah...about that...
Yeah...about that...
Sparky
Member
Sorry if this has already been pointed out (I am the other side of the world and there have been rather a few posts over night - for me).
Tesla have done something smart that has been dressed up as being a good citizen. To quote from the report "During Q1, we consistently produced 400 or more Model S vehicles per week, for a total of over 5,000 during the quarter. We recognized 4,900 vehicles as revenue, exceeding our initial Q1 guidance of 4,500, despite physically delivering a higher number of vehicles, as the standard for revenue recognition was extremely high."
They state that they delivered over 5,000 MS's, however, they only booked 4,900 against revenue. Next quarter, there will be a lag in booking those MS's sent to Europe, however, they have in effect stuffed the Q2 numbers with that overhang from Q1.
Further "While we expect to build about 5,000 Model S vehicles in Q2, some cars will be in transit to Europe for start of deliveries in Q3. As a result, we expect to deliver slightly over 4,500 vehicles during Q2, all in North America."
Tesla delivered more than 5,000 in Q1 with a shutdown in the first week and a learning curve to climb. Produced more than 400 per week.
Assuming that they can do the same again in Q2...
Overhang from Q1 - 100 at least, maybe 200
Surplus again 200 in Q2
Extra week 400
So they could ship 800 in Q2 to Europe and still do 4,900 in USA without blinking.
Add in production experience, and you have another missed (to the good) target.
Expectation management (as with Apple) with better than expected results.
Same thing with Q1 - the 4,750 update number ended up as the de-facto number used by everyone.
Q3 will pick up the overhang from Q2 - the ca800 in transit European cars that will be delivered in Q3.
Etc etc etc.
Lastly - do the math. 21,000 expected deliveries (not built - but delivered) for 2013, less 4,900 for Q1 is 5,366 for each subsequent Q.
Tesla have done something smart that has been dressed up as being a good citizen. To quote from the report "During Q1, we consistently produced 400 or more Model S vehicles per week, for a total of over 5,000 during the quarter. We recognized 4,900 vehicles as revenue, exceeding our initial Q1 guidance of 4,500, despite physically delivering a higher number of vehicles, as the standard for revenue recognition was extremely high."
They state that they delivered over 5,000 MS's, however, they only booked 4,900 against revenue. Next quarter, there will be a lag in booking those MS's sent to Europe, however, they have in effect stuffed the Q2 numbers with that overhang from Q1.
Further "While we expect to build about 5,000 Model S vehicles in Q2, some cars will be in transit to Europe for start of deliveries in Q3. As a result, we expect to deliver slightly over 4,500 vehicles during Q2, all in North America."
Tesla delivered more than 5,000 in Q1 with a shutdown in the first week and a learning curve to climb. Produced more than 400 per week.
Assuming that they can do the same again in Q2...
Overhang from Q1 - 100 at least, maybe 200
Surplus again 200 in Q2
Extra week 400
So they could ship 800 in Q2 to Europe and still do 4,900 in USA without blinking.
Add in production experience, and you have another missed (to the good) target.
Expectation management (as with Apple) with better than expected results.
Same thing with Q1 - the 4,750 update number ended up as the de-facto number used by everyone.
Q3 will pick up the overhang from Q2 - the ca800 in transit European cars that will be delivered in Q3.
Etc etc etc.
Lastly - do the math. 21,000 expected deliveries (not built - but delivered) for 2013, less 4,900 for Q1 is 5,366 for each subsequent Q.
NigelM
Recovering Member
Citizen-T
Active Member
Well, you want to discount them for their impacts in future quarters, as there's a feeling that the 2013 credits have already been sold. So, yes, they count for Q1, but don't expect them to repeat to the same extent in Q2.
If I received a $1k per month salary but also got a New Year bonus of $1k in January as well, and then I told you that including the January bonus my cash flow for Q1 was positive by $500, well, you might be a bit concerned about my cash flow.
Fortunately TSLA seems aware of what's going on and has adjusted guidance in future quarters accordingly, but I do think it's reasonable to consider what Q1 would have looked like without the credits to help understand what Q2-Q4 might look like.
P.S., I still think John Petersen spouts nonsense.
ShortSlaver
Member
Another beauty from our guy:
The Dark Side Of Tesla's Masterful Short Squeeze - Seeking Alpha
At least he raised his valuation to $10.00.
The Dark Side Of Tesla's Masterful Short Squeeze - Seeking Alpha
At least he raised his valuation to $10.00.
I don't see what point there is to it. Why don't we analyze Targets future quarter revenue without pharmacy sales?
Sure, it gives you another way of looking at the data. But I don't see it as big a negative as some writers (not you) seem to.
And since, as you mentioned, Tesla is taking it into account and being very up front about it, I don't see what the big deal is.
I'd be pretty annoyed by this if I couldn't take solace in my retirement account that has now tripled in size, in part because it's his articles that contributed to setting up the shorts so we could knock them down. I wonder what needs to happen for him to issue a mea culpa. Or maybe he's smarter than we give him credit for and is making a ton of money off us Tesla fanboys who keep clicking on his provocative articles. Pretty sure he's not making anything through his investment skills.
Citizen-T
Active Member
He once said T hat he'd be the first to congratulate Tesla if the pulled it off, he just didn't believe they could. He still hasn't even gotten in line. I don't see how he will be first.
Sent from my XT912 using Tapatalk 2
Sent from my XT912 using Tapatalk 2
NigelM
Recovering Member
rolosrevenge
Dr. EVS
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