Iain
Member
I'll be happy if we see an upload by Sunday. My money is dirtytesla drops the first one
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- Thread starter Drrobmiller
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diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
I do think that V9 will be released on Saturday because of the very precise release time (Friday at midnight). When Elon gives a very specific release time, it is usually pretty sure. And it is only a limited release. The wide release has a more vague release time (about a month if all goes well) so that is more uncertain. The wide release will probably get delayed again.
I'll channel @Knightshade here and remind you that even Elon himself says to not believe him on any timeframe, he was very clear about it on 60 minutes.
Anyone else think that "release" means to the internal Tesla employees? I still remember in 2016 when he said AP was going out in two days, and what he meant was to an internal test group. It was 6 weeks before any real customer got it. That was "Tesla Vision" back then too!
Anyone else think that "release" means to the internal Tesla employees? I still remember in 2016 when he said AP was going out in two days, and what he meant was to an internal test group. It was 6 weeks before any real customer got it. That was "Tesla Vision" back then too!
powertoold
Active Member
He's bad at timelines, but he's not this deceptive lol.
Silicon Desert
Well-Known Member
yes, and along with that, my wife wants a "Mind of Husband" view because she can't understand what I am doing when I am driving
This time you mean.
He was in 2016, and I really doubt many people thought 71 non-Tesla employees was what he meant by "Limited FSD beta releasing on Tuesday next week, as promised. This will, at first, be limited to a small number of people who are expert & careful drivers."
Do you really think they filtered the people that got FSD beta based on a driving skill test that ranked them as "expert" drivers? Kinda deceptive to say this is how you chose your testers when what you really use is YouTube influence. Should we talk about funding secured or pedo tweets?
With Elon, only time will tell. I'm sure if it comes out on Saturday, lots of people will hail this as "see, Elon is better now" and if it doesn't, it will just be more "two weeks" memes. Neither would be a surprise, nor would finding out that what he meant was 5 hand picked non-Tesla employees.
Although all of the BS deadlines are hard to remember, I believe the “latest” FSD beta testers started nine months ago in Oct 2020 and we saw how that went. So if the beta testers re-start this weekend for the latest iteration, we shouldn’t assume anything better. Perhaps we will see a wide release by mid-2022 or so, which is only 5 1/2 years after I purchased FSD for my 12/2016 Model S. What a scam!
Even the marketing gaslighting is working by them calling this "FSD".. What is being released is nothing like Full Self Driving described in 2016. Or 2017. Or 2018. It's just pay attention all the time L2 for city streets.
If you truly can’t wait you are in trouble. This “maybe one month” crap has been a pattern ever since FSD went on sale in Fall 2016. EAP was a solid product as opposed to FSD, which has been a solid con job.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Thats always the problem. People keep mistaking "incompetence" for "conspiracy". Musk is simply incompetent at estimating time. As s/w engineers know you should really apply Murphy's laws when it comes to software.
ps : This is not to say - Musk doesn't know that his timelines are "aggressive". But thats business-as-usual in the tech world. Just a way to put pressure on the dev team to work 24+ hours a day ... I don't condone the behavior.
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It's not that simple. We're discussing what he means by "Releasing Beta V9" not when it will occur. Elon has many, many misleading, deceptive, and crazy communications unrelated to time (going private, covid denials, pedo tweets, red pill tweets) that require a magic decoder ring that only exists in the future to understand what he "meant".
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EVNow
Well-Known Member
So you're 100% sure that on Saturday morning, exactly the same people that have v8 will have v9? No more, no less? 2K Tesla employees and 71 non-employees? The beta group that Elon has never actually described?
Auto wipers are in beta. Summon is in beta. Autosteer is in beta, I'm very confused based on Elon's previous descriptions on how anyone can be so sure what he means when a beta something is "released". He's all over the place with his descriptions historically - "wide release", "beta," "limited," a button for people that really want it..
Also, to say it's just timeframes. The button will never exist. the Early Access Program from the referral group never existed. He absolutely says things which never come true and were just made up on the fly, not just everything being late. So who knows what the heck he means about Saturday? We'll only know on Sunday.
I hope nobody takes your "V9 Beta is also simple" out of context- you could sound like Elon saying that FSD was solved in 2015 and then in 2021 he had no idea how hard generalized self driving would be
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“Due to the fact we are introducing Tesla Vision HD radar plus, which includes several fundamental improvements to autopilot, there is limited value it testing 9.x. FSD beta 10 released ~ 4 weeks“
Tell us how you really feel about a man who has changed the world through overseeing the development and commercialization of new technologies in several different industries?
I think this is fairly common for software. Engineers running alpha builds. Closed testing of the beta builds. Public beta of the RC builds. Everything related to autopilot is a public beta and it probably will be until it steps from L2 to L3 or L4. Once it becomes L3+ it will then be "released" and no longer in beta.
The only difference with tesla and autopilot software is that we as the public get a tiny bit of info about the alpha/closed beta process vs a company like apple where you don't even see a new version of iOS until the day the RC build drops. Yes, I know this isn't a apples to apples comparison but my point is I'd rather have info and updates even if deadlines are missed vs just radio silence for some random amount of time then finally just receive a random update 7 months down the road that includes autosteer on city streets.
I think a flawed but very productive person is a story as old as time, and that humanity always struggles to understand what to do with the messy reality of humans that can do great things in one area while being awful people in other areas.
It's when you start using the good things they do as a defense or cover for the bad instead of holding them accountable for those actions as well that everything starts to go sideways. Society has been though a lot of this recently in areas like #metoo, and believing in someone you've never met so deeply that you want to turf over the very public bad things they do instead of discussing them isn't a great look if you want to seem impartial. Particularly if those bad things are in direct opposition to the things you say that person doesn't do ("they aren't that deceptive")
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Except everything related to AP is NOT a public beta. Tesla has closed betas all the time, like this whole FSD situation.
Historically though, Elon means that "beta" = closed beta, and "released" = public beta, given that all AP is still in beta. For Tesla, "beta" just means "we hope this gets us out of some liability, since we actually sell this and don't tell people it's beta until after we deliver it" (show me where AP is advertised as beta on any Tesla page or checkout process).
I do not think it is common in software that a CEO tweeting "software is released to beta this weekend" means closed beta. As you say, everyone else is silent about their closed betas. Tesla uses them as marketing. This difference is important, as anyone used to other dev models means that if a CEO announces a beta, there is a good chance you can actually get it if you want, not that 0.001% of customers can get it and it's still a year plus away from public beta.
Which is why I mention there is a good chance that Elon's "releasing v9 beta on Saturday" tweet doesn't mean what everyone hopes it means.
In a follow-up tweet he did say that "wide release" might come "in a month or so." So my understanding is that the current beta testers should get V9 on Saturday (of course, Elon Time caveats apply) and then if they see good enough results in the beta test group, they will roll it out later this year. Anything that he says "in an X or so" means he has no idea about the timeline, imo. Wasn't V8 "days away" this past spring? I wouldn't really be holding my breath on anything until it actually happens at this point.
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