1) It's insurance. You can also self-insure and buy a battery later.
2) Upgrading is an unknown right now. The battery cost latter will almost certainly be more than $12k.
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1) It's insurance. You can also self-insure and buy a battery later.
2) Upgrading is an unknown right now. The battery cost latter will almost certainly be more than $12k.
BTW I'm wondering if incompatibilities in technology will mean that we'd be stuck with replacing a pack with (a) the same type, or (b) one of the currently-available options. Nothing in GB's post implies that there would be different options in the future.
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P.S. I mean, nothing implies any future options would be compatible (or that there would be different ones, but I'm willing the presume the latter). ;-)
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P.S. I mean, nothing implies any future options would be compatible (or that there would be different ones, but I'm willing the presume the latter). ;-)
I have lots of questions on this and the other post. They fit into basically two categories: (1) if I pay the $12k for the 85 kWh will I have the option to "supersize" to a larger one if Tesla tech advances in 8 years and (2) on warranty and servicing I'd like to see an example of damage/repair scenarios and which are covered at which price point over the 8 years. I'll probably fire off a mail to my Tesla contacts in a week or two since they're pretty busy with deliveries right now.
If Tesla determines that a battery failed due to user neglect, then this pre-purchased battery replacement program cannot be used for a replacement battery. 20% of that 40k figure was due to the labor involved in replacing the Roadster battery.
rogbmw
Member
But - Tesla in fact emphasizes that replacement of a Model S battery is much easier than that on a roadster.
Chas F
Model S 60kWh #P6396
I didn't include tax considerations. Good point. Still, $15K should be considered your base cost.
You are assuming the current implementation of lithium will continue for the next 8 years. There are already newer technologies being explored that are said to be much lower cost. Elon has also hinted at moving to an Ultracapacitor solution or some hybrid. The point is 8 years is a long time and battery technology will not stand still, driven mostly by the increased demand you alluded to.
Update: I do see now that you did caveat your assumptions. Even so, I think i'll stick my $ in an indexed mutual fund and take my chances in 8 years.
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Might start out off-topic, but stick with me. I was one of the first customers of BFG video cards, the company that warranted their video cards for life. 6 years after purchasing my first one, it failed, and I had to send it in to BFG for replacement. They did not send me a like-for-like replacement; rather, they sent me a refurbished version of the lowest-tier card they currently had for sale.
Given that batteries don't like to sit on shelves all that well, I would imagine the battery replacement program would have to be a bit more than Tesla just storing a bunch of today's cells and using them in 8 years to make you an identical replacement pack. When I saw the replacement program this morning, I was ready to sign up, even if it meant in 8 years I replace the battery pack and then immediately sell the vehicle (because I imagine a brand spankin' new battery pack on this car will be worth far more than $12k).
The "going out of business" part kinda ruined that situation for my BFG replacement.
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
Most Roadster owners opted NOT to buy the replacement option, using the same reasoning above. It's insurance. That's all. For $12K, I don't have to worry about it. Maybe it will be a good deal. Maybe there will be an upgrade option. Maybe it will be replaced with a better battery. Maybe none of that is true. But for $12k, I don't have to worry about it.
Indeed there may be aftermarket options, salvage options and more than likely rebuild options by then. Lost count of the number of companies doing that for the Prius these days. That said, the prius is a MUCH bigger market. None the less, I can see those companies that are currently doing Prius expanding into the Tesla world as well.
Tesla is in the process of building a Battery ReMan facility in Fremont. This facility will allow them to refurbish batteries for the foreseeable future. Bottom line: if you buy the Model S $12k replacement, you will be getting the 85kwH battery 8 years from now.
Tommy
Member
I wonder thou if Tesla will be the only source for the Battery Pack due to patents and no generic equivalent will be available for at least the next 10-15 years, therefore the replacement options are going to be limited. They could license out their battery technology, however I don't see them undercutting their own price to the point that erodes the price point they are setting now.
Some numeric guesses
So.... Using a spreadsheet to lend credibility to a set of total guesses. For an 85 kwh battery assuming:
So.... Using a spreadsheet to lend credibility to a set of total guesses. For an 85 kwh battery assuming:
- Current battery cost is $450 per kwh ($38.25K total)
- $/kwh cost decreases at 8%/year
- After 8 years the battery has 80% capacity left
- Tesla can sell the used batteries for other applications for 75% of the cost of a new battery with same remaining capacity
- The used battery will have 68 kwh capacity
- The used battery minus a 25% discount can be sold for $11,778
- Cost for a new 85 kwh battery will be $19,631
- The total profit to Tesla is $4,148 ($11,778 + $12,000 - $19,631).
- Buying the replacement saves $7,631.
Chas F
Model S 60kWh #P6396
Doesn't have to be Teslas technology. Electricity is electricity. There are (and will be) many ways to get to 85kwh (if that's what you want). Compatibility will not be an issue. Use the model of cell phone battery replacement options via aftermarket after 8 years for reference.
All one has to do is match the packaging envelope and output requirements. The rest is irrelevant.
ToddRLockwood
Active Member
Some thoughts...
When the warranties start running out, I would not be surprised to see some independent shops offering battery pack rebuild services, assuming they can source the Panasonic cells at a reasonable price.
Eight years is a long time. Will you still own your Model S by then? Will the battery replacement purchase be transferable to the next owner? Will the same cells still be used, or will a smaller number of more efficient cells be used? If a higher-capacity pack is being made then, will it be possible to upgrade to it?
When the warranties start running out, I would not be surprised to see some independent shops offering battery pack rebuild services, assuming they can source the Panasonic cells at a reasonable price.
Eight years is a long time. Will you still own your Model S by then? Will the battery replacement purchase be transferable to the next owner? Will the same cells still be used, or will a smaller number of more efficient cells be used? If a higher-capacity pack is being made then, will it be possible to upgrade to it?
My hope is simply that Tesla will spell out precise terms of the deal when this goes live, not just referring to it as "a new battery" which GB did in his post. Personally I think just replacing an 85kwH after 8 years with a refurbished 85kwH would be really silly if there's a 120+ available, and not very good for resale. I'd love to see the option be that if you buy the highest capacity replacement option now (the $12k), you get the highest capacity battery available in 8 years (120+?), buying the lowest capacity replacement option now gets the lowest it 8 years (85?), etc. Probably unrealistic, but if so I really hope they spell out the details of how you would "move up" to a better battery in 8 years under this replacement option. Also, spell out whether we have to this at purchase or if we have some window after we get the car to decide.
And if the specific Panasonic 18650 cells they use aren't available in 4 years, then what? What if cells in that form factor and voltage can only be found at 4000 mAH capacities? They're not going to be "ReMan"ning the cells there, just the packs.
Stating one of my points above differently, I think it's critical if an EV is to maintain a respectable depreciation curve that there be a path to incorporate the latest battery technology when the original battery is degraded. Otherwise the car's range will wind up being thoroughly outclassed by newer EV's, either from Tesla or others. That's not good for residual values. We need to be able to replace our 85's with 120's, 60's with 100's, whatever.
These are the same conversations that Roadster owners had a few years back.
What we do know:
1. Panasonic is an investor in Tesla Motors
2. Tesla has at least two more vehicles that use the same form factor pack as the Model S
3. The Roadster has been out for over 4 years and Tesla has only replaced factory packs with 53kwH packs or lower
It is unlikely Panasonic will abandon these specific cells when Tesla will be purchasing ~140,000,000 18560 cells from them this year. There will be an ample backup supply of 18560 cells at the correct capacity.
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