Okay it's next month....where is our smoooooth as silk

[dhanson865]

Thanks.

Here is one screenshot

 

[gearchruncher]

For fun, Elon's tweets about the browser:

• Oct 5th, 2016: "When we upgrade the core Linux OS to 4.4, which is probably December"
  
  
• Dec 30th, 2016: "Late Jan, along with Linux kernel upgrade"
  
  
• Feb 5th, 2017: "Linux kernel and browser update probably a month or so."
  
  
• March 31, 2017: "Browser is already a little better. Kernel and browser update in prob 6 weeks or so (lots of underlying changes) with a few nice features."
  
  
• May 21, 2017: "Almost there, plus much improved web browser"
  
  
• June 11, 2017: "New kernel goes out next weekend, new web browser next month."

If you ever needed a reason to distrust any Elon tweet, I think it's pretty well encapsulated in that one feature.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Aren't they on it by choice, i.e. owners not updating downloaded software?

1. If they are, then wow you just made an extraordinarily poor argument.

2. If they aren't, then wtf happened?

In either case, what you said in no way establishes a slippery slope or anything beyond the fact that people will say anything to defend a 6 month "missed" timeline.

I don't know if by choice or not, but I have read recent posts where people say they are still on 7.1. I'm sure there are plenty of later versions that people consider "released" or "existent" and it's not available for every user. Just making the point it's a ridiculous standard that if every user can't have it that it's considered to not exist.

 

[hill]

Every release to date has been staged first. ......snip......

kind of like the statement, "it will be working in December (of last year)" .... that statement was pretty much staged, too.

 

[alcibiades]

I don't know if by choice or not, but I have read recent posts where people say they are still on 7.1. I'm sure there are plenty of later versions that people consider "released" or "existent" and it's not available for every user. Just making the point it's a ridiculous standard that if every user can't have it that it's considered to not exist.

A standard so ridiculous that it was unlikely to be what the person meant.

The Principle of Charity

 

[wayner]

They might not be tied together in a technical sense outside of Tesla but Elon has said repeatedly over the last year or so that the browser upgrade everyone is asking for would come with or just after a kernel update. People don't want to bother to dig up quotes and screenshots of tweets every time so they just mention them together.

Thanks - and to actually quote things - on 5 Oct 2016 Dean Miller tweeted "when will we be getting an upgraded browser in the S/X?" Elon replied "When we upgrade the core Linux OS to 4.4, which is probably December". Note that Elon didn't specify which December - maybe he meant December 2020?

 

[Electroman]

It is not just the release dates that we can't trust Elon's tweet, even some of what he says will happen will never happen - for example his recent tweet about Superchargers being off the grid with Solar panels and such is just blatantly hogwash. It is not even theortically possible to get that much energy through solar panels, not the mention the logistics of installing so many panels in many place where Tesla doesn't own the parking area.

I can accept the over optimism on release dates, but simply tweeting some great sounding stuff just as a reply to another is unacceptable.

 

[gearchruncher]

Note that Elon didn't specify which December - maybe he meant December 2020?

I know we're joking here, but Ever since Feb Elon has said "next month" or "x weeks." He didn't just tweet in October, he's followed up 5 times since then, each one past his previous due date, with a new due date.

 

[chillaban]

I get the impression that this browser+kernel update kept getting deprioritized and delayed due to other things taking priority, not because Elon can't figure out how long it takes 5000 engineers to compile a new WebKit.

I mean, playing devil's advocate here, I'd much rather have my Autopilot and AEB improvements this weekend than have it delayed a month to bundle it together with a web browser update that I'd rarely use.

 

[chillaban]

I get the impression that this browser+kernel update kept getting deprioritized and delayed due to other things taking priority, not because Elon can't figure out how long it takes 5000 engineers to compile a new WebKit.

I mean, playing devil's advocate here, I'd much rather have my Autopilot and AEB improvements this weekend than have it delayed a month to bundle it together with a web browser update that I'd rarely use.

 

[Electroman]

It is not just the release dates that we can't trust Elon's tweet, even some of what he says will happen will never happen - for example his recent tweet about Superchargers being off the grid with Solar panels and such is just blatantly hogwash. It is not even theortically possible to get that much energy through solar panels, not to mention the logistics of installing so many panels in many place where Tesla doesn't own the parking area.


I can accept the over optimism on release dates, but simply tweeting some great sounding stuff just as a reply to another is unacceptable.

 

[Uncle Paul]

I have been involved with manufacturing for high tech medical equipment.

We often had difficulty getting the engineers to release products. As they would get close to a product that Marketing wanted, they would never want to release it, as they had fresh ideas come up during the development that they wanted to finish up and get into the released product.

They never were willing to release a product until they got all their latest ideas included.

Devil was in deciding when the product was good enough to be acceptable to the consumer, and when letting the engineers work a little more on the improvements to get out an even better and more advanced product.

That is Elon's dilemma. Do you release a product because the forums are clammoring for it, or wait until it has more development and is even better.

Sometime late run testing reveals some bugs to be worked out or places that could benefit from improvement.

This is not all that easy accomplish. Complaining is much easier.

 

[bmah]

17.17.4 hit the first car on the 6th of May and had hit 10% of all cars by the end of the first day.

I know what you mean but it gives me the heeby-jeebies to read here about things hitting cars.

Bruce.

 

[chillaban]

I know what you mean but it gives me the heeby-jeebies to read here about things hitting cars.

Bruce.

Reminds me of a time with a childhood best friend, where we were air traveling and right after the plane landed I hear him on the phone: "Hey Mom, we just hit the ground, I'll talk to you later". I gave him a weird look and said "could you have phrased that any worse?" and he called his mom back to clarify….

 

[Electroman]

This is not all that easy accomplish. Complaining is much easier.

Oh I agree 100%. But experience suggests that you don't come and spout some unreasonable release dates to start with. In fact I would think any date should be tweeted only very close to the release, once everyone is confident that they are close.

But my beef is not with the unrealistic dates. Not a big deal. But tweeting stuff that may never happen - that I think should be avoided at all costs.

 

[chillaban]

Oh I agree 100%. But experience suggests that you don't come and spout some unreasonable release dates to start with. In fact I would think any date should be tweeted only very close to the release, once everyone is confident that they are close.

But my beef is not with the unrealistic dates. Not a big deal. But tweeting stuff that may never happen - that I think should be avoided at all costs.

This is pretty much EXACTLY why most tech CEOs (or even tech companies) don't talk about future plans until they are basically ready to ship. It's frustrating on the one hand for the company to be a complete black box, but on the other hand they don't repeatedly tell customers about stuff that's coming only to have it changed / canceled / delayed.

I work in the tech industry and I'd say 75% or more of what I "know" about a 1-year roadmap ends up changing over the course of the year.

 

[dweeks]

They never were willing to release a product until they got all their latest ideas included.

Perfect is the enemy of "good enough."

Steve Jobs said..."Real artists ship."

 

[gearchruncher]

Devil was in deciding when the product was good enough to be acceptable to the consumer, and when letting the engineers work a little more on the improvements to get out an even better and more advanced product.

That is Elon's dilemma. Do you release a product because the forums are clammoring for it, or wait until it has more development and is even better.

They are not releasing a product. They are incrementally updating software. Something they promised to do every 2-6 weeks. In that environment, it's trivial to leave something out. Just do it two weeks later. Ironically, it appears here that Marketing is winning, as they are releasing very half baked features so they can advertise them, that one would assume the engineers are frustrated with.

Are you seriously saying that they have the kernel and web browser all packed up, ready to hit "send to cars on" but they aren't pressing that button because some engineer has a good idea he/she wants to include? Or that having the car not veer into the oncoming lane is sitting in a bin of bits somewhere but they're waiting until they can really polish that next easter egg?

All of this of course is simple to fix. Just shut up about it. Stop telling us "next week" or "next month." Be quiet until it's here.

 

[animorph]

I prefer optimistic tweets to no tweets at all. Truthfully, Elon is probably better at estimating release dates than I ever was. My boss always doubled my time estimates and then I still struggled to meet deadlines. Always cool stuff to add, cleaner ways to write the code, more testing that can be done.

Elon is not "promising" firm release dates, he's full of probably and maybe and around. And he's giving us way more info than the CEO of GM.

 

[gearchruncher]

I would think any date should be tweeted only very close to the release, once everyone is confident that they are close.

You mean like how Elon tweeted on Dec 22nd: "Looks like we might be ready to rollout most of Autopilot functionality for HW2 towards the end of next week"

After that, it was about March when I realized Elon has not attachment to the reality of his development team. How he could consider something to be a week away when we're now 25 weeks past that and still not there? He's either delusional, or he says stuff like this to sell cars and doesn't care about the likelyhood of it happening.

If he can think something is a week away when it's 6+ months away, what are you supposed to do with the information that he thinks something is 1 month or 6 months away? I'll be dead by the time any of the 6 month stuff hits if it follows his 1 week estimates.

 

[gearchruncher]

Truthfully, Elon is probably better at estimating release dates than I ever was.

He tweeted two months for the browser and it will be at least 9. He tweeted one week for AP2 functions and it's been 25. How bad are you at estimating!?

Maybe someone can pull together a series of tweets where Elon's estimates came true within a 2X window. The 5th tweet on a topic after 3 delays saying "next week" doesn't count. First tweet on a topic to when it shipped.

 

[Alketi]

In regards to time, Musk may well set more aggressive delivery targets for very difficult-to-make products than any executive in history. Both his employees and the public have found this to be one of the more jarring aspects of Musk’s character. “Elon has always been optimistic,” Brogan said. “That’s the nice word. He can be a downright liar about when things need to get done. He will pick the most aggressive time schedule imaginable assuming everything goes right, and then accelerate it by assuming that everyone can work harder.”

Reminded about the initial 2003 target date to fly the Falcon 1, Musk acted shocked. “Are you serious?” he said. “We said that? Okay, that’s ridiculous. I think I just didn’t know what the hell I was talking about. The only thing I had prior experience in was software, and, yeah, you can write a bunch of software and launch a website in a year. No problem. This isn’t like software. It doesn’t work that way with rockets.”

- Elon Musk: Tesla, SpaceX, and the Quest for a Fantastic Future, by Ashley Vance