FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Exactly. Tesla has NOT released the "normal" mode yet for model D. It's coming and it WILL have higher efficiency than SPORT and INSANE mode
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Exactly. Tesla has NOT released the "normal" mode yet for model D. It's coming and it WILL have higher efficiency than SPORT and INSANE mode
Did Elon or TM confirm that "normal" mode will be coming? Did Elon or TM confirm the P85D will be more efficient than P85(+) as promised in D event? Can P85D eventually achieve 275(285) miles range under 65MPH constant cruise speed as originally advertised? Although many people still have great faith on Elon and TM, but Elon and TM can't abuse such trust!
As an official product, P85D has been delivered to thousands of customers and certainly the range doesn't meet the product spec. or original advertisement. I think there might have legal case against TM if this issue can't be resolved properly in timely fashion.
As an official product, P85D has been delivered to thousands of customers and certainly the range doesn't meet the product spec. or original advertisement. I think there might have legal case against TM if this issue can't be resolved properly in timely fashion.
Agree that there are great positives as listed.
It is unfortunate that these positives have been unnecessarily tainted with less than adequate communications that culminated in Twittergate.
Less is more in this case and I hope to see much less needless information coming from Tesla in the future. Let the car speak for itself.
mejojo
Active Member
What exactly is your interest in continually pressing negativity, presuming failure on all fronts, to the extent of claiming abuse of trust and predicting lawsuits?
chickensevil
Active Member
At the event it was only stated emphatically that the 85D would have better range than the normal 85. P85 to P85D I don't know where anyone got that it would be MORE efficient from just the event comments... Certainly not while in Sport or Insane mode. Please don't twist words to make it seem like TM or Elon knowingly lied. The closest thing you have to go on is the "65MPH" postings that used to be on their website. Even that changed a few times for the P85D before finally being replaced by the EPA numbers. But again, we won't know what you can truly get out of it until the finalize normal mode. Clearly they are having issues with it or it would have been released already. We will know what it looks like when it gets released.
If TM did execute all their promises in guidance and 2014 is indeed a "relentless growth" year, then we are probably well above $280 or even $300 now. Given that TM had a series execution errors and missed guidance in 2014, how trustable is the 50% demand increase claim and 2k/week production rate by end of 2015 claim ACTUALLY remain in question? Not to mention the even remote gigafactory pushed ahead thing, it's mostly a tactic to alleviate the impact of Q3 miss.
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This is really the thing puzzled me. If the product design is not ready or thoroughly validated, how come TM released the D model suddenly? Another big puzzle for me is the assembly line upgrade. It used to claim to prepare for X production, then suddenly the X pushed out at least 12 month from the assembly line upgrade and the upgrade caused big MESS in Q3 production. Sometimes I don't see the logic behind some TM actions especially in 2014.
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It's not my interest to press negativity. Instead I do wish all the positivity surrounding P85D. If you read the P85D delivery thread, this is the common concerns from a lot of customers. But until now, there is no official and clear communication from TM yet to rest assure the customers. I don't think this forum should be a "fanboy" type forum, let the fact speak.
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This is really the thing puzzled me. If the product design is not ready or thoroughly validated, how come TM released the D model suddenly? Another big puzzle for me is the assembly line upgrade. It used to claim to prepare for X production, then suddenly the X pushed out at least 12 month from the assembly line upgrade and the upgrade caused big MESS in Q3 production. Sometimes I don't see the logic behind some TM actions especially in 2014.
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It's not my interest to press negativity. Instead I do wish all the positivity surrounding P85D. If you read the P85D delivery thread, this is the common concerns from a lot of customers. But until now, there is no official and clear communication from TM yet to rest assure the customers. I don't think this forum should be a "fanboy" type forum, let the fact speak.
mejojo
Active Member
Problem is...you are often not letting facts speak. You interpret and extrapolate to negative extremes.
Please DO try to let facts speak.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I agree with one of Maoing's points. Personally, I bought the D because of the AWD with the bonus of extra acceleration. However, there is the potential for short term drop in TSLA because of the discontent over
the lowering of the EPA mileage and real world perception or reality of considerable reduction in the P85D range along with some issues with the upgraded seats. Long term I believe this will be remedied by a software upgrade to include a third level of use energy use.....Standard or Economy mode....and the new seats becoming available. I don't think we can discount the FUDsters using this for some short term harm to the stock price.
As to the return policy: It is admirable on the part of TM to have such a policy. However, If a large percentage of people started returning their cars I would buy short term puts
the lowering of the EPA mileage and real world perception or reality of considerable reduction in the P85D range along with some issues with the upgraded seats. Long term I believe this will be remedied by a software upgrade to include a third level of use energy use.....Standard or Economy mode....and the new seats becoming available. I don't think we can discount the FUDsters using this for some short term harm to the stock price.
As to the return policy: It is admirable on the part of TM to have such a policy. However, If a large percentage of people started returning their cars I would buy short term puts
Chickensevil has hit the nail on the head here. Does anyone believe that Elon would make the improvement in range claims without evidence to back it up? He was talking about the difference in range between the 85 and the 85D. The difference in range between the P85 and P85D is a different matter entirely because of the massive jump in horsepower. It's a different fish to fry and will likely require a unique solution to find optimal results. I trust the folks who created the Model S can find a range-optimized solution that will bring improvements to P85D owners.
AIMc has a good feel for the temperament of the P85D buyers. Tesla really should have put out a short blurb that indicated that P85D mileage may be below P85 mileage, at least until range settings are optimized.
Edit: I see after viewing the P85D delivery thread that someone posted a Tesla mileage estimate for the P85D of 285 miles at 65 mph. That's going to be a challenge to meet, I suspect. Again, giving the buyers a heads up about the initial mileage they could expect before optimization would have eliminated a lot of heartache with the P85D buyers.
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chickensevil
Active Member
That's a good point. For all the complaining I have seen, I have yet to see someone post that they are returning the D because they are upset with the results of the product.
I mean the option is there, of people really thought it would be a game changer for them they would just dump the product. Most people able to afford a 130k car (many of them buying this while writing off the loss from selling their old Tesla) would likely take the hit on any loss incurred from returning the product back to Tesla. And people are always quick to post "unsubscribing" or "unliking" posts on other such things, I'm sure when someone does do a product return and "sign off on Tesla forever" or whatever silly nonsense, it will be plastered on the forums.
Funny how the car must just still be that awesome that people are willing to live with any range loss... Which might soon be fixed with a software update anyway.
Will this get spun by the media and FUDsters? Sure they will try. Will it hit on the stock price? Dunno. They just recently tried with the FUD about repair costs being a "problem" last week and we see how that turned out. If/when it does get picked up I could see a minor pullback in price but honestly we just went up about 30$ and would be due for a tiny pullback by about 5$ before continuing back up. It will make the break through the 200DMA more "clean" that way.
Edit: one final thought is that we are likely to see a surge of FUD anyway as we try to battle the 200DMA. Bears are going to try to do what they can to keep the stock under that point since it gives the appearance that we are "broken" and that the "bubble" is bursting. If we stick a solid above 200 DMA closing price it might be tough for them to drag us under again and will send all the shorts back underwater again.
I had heard that our boy Mark (LT) had a break even of like 208$. Shame he should have cashed out when he actually had the chance...
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Perfectlogic
Member
I would again argue that Tesla performed better than you could have reasonably expected this year as the dual motor variant came out of nowhere and really should have sent the stock up at least 10%. The target of 1k/week production rate at the end of the year is met which is much more important than missing a few weeks worth of production as that has no impact on future production, so I would say the 2k/week prediction is pretty trustworthy. I would definately call a production increase of 50% and even more than that in production rate increase relentless growth in an industry growing a couple % per year. "Not to mention the even remote gigafactory pushed ahead thing, it's mostly a tactic to alleviate the impact of Q3 miss." This is just pure speculation, bordering on FUD, sure the X have been delayed and that is unfortunate, but even without the SUV Tesla is growing incredibly fast and probably wouldn't have been able to grow production faster had they prioritized getting the X to market as soon as possible as they wouldn't have been able to expand S production as quickly, the delay is of relatively low importance. Delays on completely new car models is also very common in the industry, probably happens more often than not.
But several folks on the thread cancelled or delayed the order to avoid range/seat hassle. Note the folks on the P85D thread just account for a small percentage (<10%?) of buyers.
sundaymorning
Active Member
+1
Bravo, couldn't have said it better myself. Missing a few weeks short term bc the company is bringing a better product to the market will only give the stock a higher valuation in 2015, especially when demand remains way above supply. One point most newbies don't realize is that Tesla did in fact meet its 1,000 rate per week, and from media reports, that happened last month. Originally, they targeted 800, and even that number made a huge splash within the media in the summer of 2013 (last year). As long as demand does not fall, Tesla will see wreckless growth, and if you ask me, which is better for Tesla's future, meeting deliveries or innovating the D and bringing that to consumer ASAP? the answer is pretty darn evident, as demand and favorable reviews are climbing. The thing about the investment community is that people are not as smart as some of us here. It takes them a little longer to realize the true potential of 3.2 sec acceleration or the brilliance of auto pilot cars. Which was why when the stock shot up in 2013, analysts were baffled, many of those institutions continued to look like fools when they relentlessly changed their price targets to reflect the market value of Tesla, raising their PT monthly as investors were buying hand over fist.
Ever since Tesla changed its reservation and delivery system, which makes calculations and predictions no longer reliable, investors will naturally get nervous. Bears will continue to use these types of opportunities to play on your weakest emotion--fear. They'll cherry pick data and blame it on an arbitrary reservation holder in Vancouver or how Joe Blow at such and such super charger feels... when it comes down to it, Tesla has delivered us: a gigafactory (which bears are stating it won't happen), model X in the pipeline with over 20k reservation holders (bears call it the X box and betting Falcon wings will hinder sales). 28% margins, hundreds of super chargers, world expansion, insane acceleration. Now tell me bears, which other car company gave you that this year? Oh Hydrogen is your answer? Let's not go there..
The latest argument I've heard from bears and most illogical is that since Tesla "maybe" won't meet numbers 4th Q bc of an arbitrary 500 cars, how can we trust a 50% increase for next year? We'll have you considered that even if Tesla misses 2015 target, they still be growing at 40%-45% without the highly anticipated X? How much value will that add to Tesla (negative value is what you're thinking)? Heheh Keep cherry picking data.. the more I hear these types of illogical arguments the more it confirms my own logic.
My advise is do your own HW, ignore the noise, unless Elon released some bearish data himself, then we' can talk. Otherwise, your friend Joe Blow is completely BS, there isn't enough transparency to argue a miss.
Trending now on cnbc: 2015, the year of Elon Musk
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102295918
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Still, you can't ignore there is a positive bias on this forum. Positive claims meet no way the scrutiny negative claims do. The same poster who is now chided for being a fudster brought out the news of the number of China imports and no one was accusing him back then of being a fanboy despite these numbers only giving circumstantial evidence of end user deliveries. We know Tesla's major problem is production. It is right there in their latest shareholder letter. Whatever happened with the seats confirms they continue having issues. We know these issues have an impact like delaying model X yet a few more months. It's not a far stretch to entertain the possibility of these issues continuing next year and hence make meeting their 50k guidance more difficult than we originally assumed based on current run rates.
Perfectlogic
Member
Most of us here are investors so ofcourse there will be a positive bias, but that doesn't change the fact that the claim of Tesla moving the Giga factory ahead of schedule is just some lie to soften the blow of the Q3 miss is complete speculation and borderline FUD. Elon certainly does not have a history of trying to pump up the stock (rather the opposite) or decieve investors so this assumption is pretty rediculous. You are welcome to call people out for making overly optimistic assumptions if you can argue your case, that and my critique of maoings overly negative assumptions is what this sub forum is for.
"We know Tesla's major problem is production. It is right there in their latest shareholder letter." It was in the letter that it would be fair to critique their production, pretty sure it doesn't say that it is a major problem. Personally I wouldn't say they have executed poorly regarding their production ramp up in general, they are growing 50-100% per year which is super fast and it won't take long for them to meet demand. Whether it takes Tesla 24 or 28 months to reach 3-4k/week production rate which should satisfy demand matters very little in the long run. Controlling the quality of the production is more important imo, which I think they have done well considering they still are a young company pioneering a new technology.
"It's not a far stretch to entertain the possibility of these issues continuing next year and hence make meeting their 50k guidance more difficult than we originally assumed based on current run rates." What? Are you arguing that demand will slow down over the next year as Tesla gain a foothold in China and roll out their infrastructure at a fast pace all over the world? They haven't even started advertising yet. You do realize they can produce 50k Model S without even expanding capacity right? Even though they are guiding for an 100% increase in capacity.
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They have been a young company pioneering for a long period now. My expectations of their valuation is that they will mature one day and become an old company delivering 500k cars per year in some reasonable timeframe.
No, I am arguing they have an issue with their production possibly making them unable to fulfil market demand. They can produce 50k model S steady state, but that's not enough. They need to continue to innovate to get to model 3. It's the combination of updating their product line while increasing production that is, in my eyes, their biggest challenge. That's been true for 2014 and if things don't improve, it will be their biggest challenge in 2015 as well. It's not a bad challenge to have, but it nevertheless can be a stumbling block.
Perfectlogic
Member
"They have been a young company pioneering for a long period now." 6 years is absolutely nothing in this industry, with only 2 years producing a significant amount of cars, ramping up production incredibly fast in a very capital intensive industry with a tight budget.
"My expectations of their valuation is that they will mature one day and become an old company delivering 500k cars per year in some reasonable timeframe." I don't think anyone here believes this won't happen, not sure what point you are trying to make, they don't have to grow at 200% per year to reach 500k/y before 2020, the key part of this ambition, the giga factory, is actually moved ahead of schedule.
"They can produce 50k model S steady state, but that's not enough." It is to meet guidance, which was what you questioned.
"They need to continue to innovate to get to model 3" Yes they do, have you not seen innovation from Tesla? They are running at 200 mph while their competitors are scrambling to get their shoes on.
"It's the combination of updating their product line while increasing production that is, in my eyes, their biggest challenge. That's been true for 2014 and if things don't improve, it will be their biggest challenge in 2015 as well." Tesla has succesfully increased production from was it around 600/week in the beginning of the year to 1000/week now which was their target. Not sure what needs to improve.
"My expectations of their valuation is that they will mature one day and become an old company delivering 500k cars per year in some reasonable timeframe." I don't think anyone here believes this won't happen, not sure what point you are trying to make, they don't have to grow at 200% per year to reach 500k/y before 2020, the key part of this ambition, the giga factory, is actually moved ahead of schedule.
"They can produce 50k model S steady state, but that's not enough." It is to meet guidance, which was what you questioned.
"They need to continue to innovate to get to model 3" Yes they do, have you not seen innovation from Tesla? They are running at 200 mph while their competitors are scrambling to get their shoes on.
"It's the combination of updating their product line while increasing production that is, in my eyes, their biggest challenge. That's been true for 2014 and if things don't improve, it will be their biggest challenge in 2015 as well." Tesla has succesfully increased production from was it around 600/week in the beginning of the year to 1000/week now which was their target. Not sure what needs to improve.
Chickenlittle
Banned
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Providing some insight into delivery numbers is not being a "fanboy", especially since those numbers weren't exactly impressive. Claiming that Tesla is open to a bunch of lawsuits from unhappy customers is FUD when the company has a satisfaction return policy. A few have cancelled their orders, some simply because of timing, but it's not a large amount of people and no one is talking about suing.
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