P85D Range/Delivery Impacts on TSLA

[Johan]

People in the 'investment threads' on this forum know that I have been very cautious about TSLA since Q3ER and short term we still could hit some bumps. But 2015 will be a good year for TM and TSLA.

No doubt 2015 will be a great year, but I do hope they get off to a good start by resolving the P85D energy consumption issue before Dec 31st. Either by clear and precise communications or by rolling out a FW update with Normal mode that does what it is supposed to. That way we can start 2015 on a positive trajectory.

 

[maoing]

Fully agree. We do need TM to execute as they promise if not over delivery. Otherwise customers and investors might lose faith and patience over the time. I think recent P85D delivery, seat and EPA issues are annoying for a lot of "loyal" customers.

Btw, one good thing I noticed from P85D delivery thread is some Norway orders entered production. So this might be a good sign that TM can fulfill all NA P85D orders several days before new year eve, and it hints the production rate is not an issue.

No doubt 2015 will be a great year, but I do hope they get off to a good start by resolving the P85D energy consumption issue before Dec 31st. Either by clear and precise communications or by rolling out a FW update with Normal mode that does what it is supposed to. That way we can start 2015 on a positive trajectory.

 

[larmor]

Range issue comes up again, while by data, many drivers will not use the full range on a daily basis, the current mindset of at least most customers is to have a solid range available. I suspect that is why TM started out with a 300 mile range advertised. There must be some reason they were able to launch the D with an advertised improved or no range loss.

I'm not one to criticize as i'm not a businessman, and i'm TM is well aware of the axioms: know your customer and underpromise-overdeliver. That is likely why the roadster was advertised with an upgrade of 400 miles.

 

[Vger]

Btw, one good thing I noticed from P85D delivery thread is some Norway orders entered production. So this might be a good sign that TM can fulfill all NA P85D orders several days before new year eve, and it hints the production rate is not an issue.

Interesting observation, and I hope you are right. However, I just posted to that thread that our DS in Vancouver warned that Tesla is having trouble lining up logistics to get finished cars out of Fremont and to their delivery locations. Our car is still in production, one day before expected delivery. That delivery is clearly going to be delayed. Perhaps our car and others expecting late Dec. delivery will still make it by New Year's eve at midnight, but the risk of produced but undelivered North American cars seems to be mounting.

 

[maoing]

Yup. I only said the production rate is fine but might not be the case for delivery. Eventually the delivery number matters Q4 ER, so please keep us updated for the delivery delay status. If the delivery delay is noticeable from TMC which accounts for a small percentage of buyers, then I guess it's likely we'll see miss for Q4 ER. It's not good for the short term especiall in Jan/Feb together with P85D range issues.

Interesting observation, and I hope you are right. However, I just posted to that thread that our DS in Vancouver warned that Tesla is having trouble lining up logistics to get finished cars out of Fremont and to their delivery locations. Our car is still in production, one day before expected delivery. That delivery is clearly going to be delayed. Perhaps our car and others expecting late Dec. delivery will still make it by New Year's eve at midnight, but the risk of produced but undelivered North American cars seems to be mounting.

 

[Lessmog]

What if I burn dinner tonight? What if the world ends at 3pm EST? What if they close down the Stock Exchange on Thursday? Really? What if...?

On topic: What if TSLA goes up tomorrow?
Answer: Some people are going to happy, some people aren't.

Nah, totally unpossible. That would set a whole new trend: closed for all of next year. Simple extrapolation. Very simple.

 

[Raffy.Roma]

Range issue comes up again

According to me true problem is that with a car having such a big power and two motors like the P85D it's not easy to optimize the power of the two motors working together in such a way to optimize range. It's just a matter of time and Tesla will solve this issue. Remember it's a software problem, not a hardware problem. Meant to say that this range issue is a minor problem. Don't understand why some people on TMC is making so much noise for this matter.

 

[Krugerrand]

Nah, totally unpossible. That would set a whole new trend: closed for all of next year. Simple extrapolation. Very simple.

I wondered if anyone would catch the significance of Thursday. LOL!

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According to me true problem is that with a car having such a big power and two motors like the P85D it's not easy to optimize the power of the two motors working together in such a way to optimize range. It's just a matter of time and Tesla will solve this issue. Remember it's a software problem, not a hardware problem. Meant to say that this range issue is a minor problem. Don't understand why some people on TMC is making so much noise for this matter.

And with all that power, it's just naturally harder for people to not stomp it.

 

[Raffy.Roma]

And with all that power, it's just naturally harder for people to not stomp it.

Yes of course if you always drive using the insane mode your range will get decreased. Also if you often use the insane mode when accelerating you will get the same result. But it's also possible to use the two motors to optimize the range. I think that this is what they are doing in Tesla now.

But "to all P85D owners" please relax. You will get the "max range" firmware release soon. As I said this is only a software problem.

 

[maoing]

Not to say "perfect execution". Over promise but under delivery is the BIG problem for TM now, the P85D range issue is just one most recent example! Elon promised the AWD will be more efficient than RWD in D event, but not only the EPA but also the real highway range is a lot worse in P85D compared to P85. This range issue may or may not be fixed by firmware update, but one thing certain is TM didn't delivery what they promised "range" when a lot customers understood back to Oct./Nov.

Edit: Together with a series under delivery issues in 2014, slow production ramp up, model X delay, guidance cut and P85D delay/seat/range. So it's no wonder TSLA is in low 200 instead of high 200.

According to me true problem is that with a car having such a big power and two motors like the P85D it's not easy to optimize the power of the two motors working together in such a way to optimize range. It's just a matter of time and Tesla will solve this issue. Remember it's a software problem, not a hardware problem. Meant to say that this range issue is a minor problem. Don't understand why some people on TMC is making so much noise for this matter.

 

[Raffy.Roma]

Not to say "perfect execution". Over promise but under delivery is the BIG problem for TM, the P85D range issue is one most recent example!

Don't agree. As I said in a previous post in electronics it's normal to make a design (which the designer thought was perfect) and then to understand that such a design is to be improved. There are many variables that are to be kept under control simultaneously (torque, efficiency, range and so on).
According to me what happened is simple that the P85D designer understood that the optimization process has got to be done again to find a better compromise among all the features that I mentioned above in brackets.

Perfect execution doesn't exist when you come to such a powerful and complex system like the P85D. It's normal that the design gets improved during time. That's why you had many firmware release for the Model S. And be sure that you will have many firmware releases also for the P85D.

 

[Krugerrand]

Not to say "perfect execution". Over promise but under delivery is the BIG problem for TM now, the P85D range issue is just one most recent example! Elon promised the AWD will be more efficient than RWD in D event, but not only the EPA but also the real highway range is a lot worse in P85D compared to P85. This range issue may or may not be fixed by firmware update, but one thing certain is TM didn't delivery what they promised "range" when a lot customers understood back to Oct./Nov.

Edit: Together with a series under delivery issues in 2014, slow production ramp up, model X delay, guidance cut and P85D delay/seat/range. So it's no wonder TSLA is in low 200 instead of high 200.

How quickly we forget all the things Tesla has done over and above what they said they would. So easy to fixate on all the other stuff. And if/when Tesla sends out new firmware and normal mode allows for the range people expected, you'll be back to say that they did in fact deliver on this matter, right? :wink:

You don't think there's any possibility that TSLA stock price got a bit ahead of itself earlier this year? And that high 200's was just a bit heady, regardless?

 

[anticitizen13.7]

How quickly we forget all the things Tesla has done over and above what they said they would. So easy to fixate on all the other stuff. And if/when Tesla sends out new firmware and normal mode allows for the range people expected, you'll be back to say that they did in fact deliver on this matter, right? :wink:

You don't think there's any possibility that TSLA stock price got a bit ahead of itself earlier this year? And that high 200's was just a bit heady, regardless?

I've written this before in other threads, but customer tolerance for products that don't meet advertised specifications is going to decrease as Tesla expands its customer base. People who have followed Tesla from the early days, and maybe bought an early Model S, had the expectation that the car would have some issues that would take time to resolve. The general consumer, who doesn't follow Tesla's every move, will be confused and upset.

This is not good from a marketing perspective. If someone buys a P85D and the range doesn't live up to expectations, what are they going to tell their friends? What are those friends going to think about Tesla vehicles? Even if a later software update resolves the range issue, at least some people who only learn about Tesla indirectly are going to have a negative impression.

I believe that Tesla eventually gets things right, but I follow the company closely. The average car buyer may not be as forgiving.

 

[Chickenlittle]

I've written this before in other threads, but customer tolerance for products that don't meet advertised specifications is going to decrease as Tesla expands its customer base. People who have followed Tesla from the early days, and maybe bought an early Model S, had the expectation that the car would have some issues that would take time to resolve. The general consumer, who doesn't follow Tesla's every move, will be confused and upset.

This is not good from a marketing perspective. If someone buys a P85D and the range doesn't live up to expectations, what are they going to tell their friends? What are those friends going to think about Tesla vehicles? Even if a later software update resolves the range issue, at least some people who only learn about Tesla indirectly are going to have a negative impression.

I believe that Tesla eventually gets things right, but I follow the company closely. The average car buyer may not be as forgiving.

Sounds like we need a special prosecutor assigned and possible impeachment. Let's get real. Do we know The rated range yet? I bought my model s with a range from tesla of 300 miles which became the ideal range and customers had choice of this or the official range to use. Rang depends on driving done. My wife gets better than ideal range with our roadster. I don't know anyone ele that can do that. I get close to ideal range with the model s. How about waiting before everyone goes off deep end.

 

[aznt1217]

What if the "update" can't resolve it? Getting to 242 miles sounds difficult at this point let alone close to P85+ range, they are waiting for their seats & now wait for this magical update too?

I was a supercharger on Saturday & met a P85 owner who is expecting a "D" in a few weeks, he thinks his range will be over 275 miles, he wasn't aware of the latest news & was going on what he was promised by Tesla..I cautioned him to not take a 275 road-trip, I mention him because he said he has 2 Model X reservations to add to his fleet of 29 cars (I saw pictures), we talked TSLA & his position was impressive as well, he was driving a loaner because his car had "conked out" on him & gave him 2 minutes to pull over before it shutdown on the freeway shoulder 2 days before Christmas, his faith in Tesla & TSLA is being questioned for the first time.

The difference here is the seats are not a Tesla controlled issue. Its a recaro issue. And yes I'm pretty sure it will get fixed and is going to be batched in with Autopilot features. Its just power curve mapping which is common in most cara today. Think start stop tech and eco buttons in vehicles.

 

[FANGO]

Sounds like we need a special prosecutor assigned and possible impeachment. Let's get real. Do we know The rated range yet? I bought my model s with a range from tesla of 300 miles which became the ideal range and customers had choice of this or the official range to use. Rang depends on driving done. My wife gets better than ideal range with our roadster. I don't know anyone ele that can do that. I get close to ideal range with the model s. How about waiting before everyone goes off deep end.

I have routinely beat ideal range on roadster and model s.

 

[Perfectlogic]

Not to say "perfect execution". Over promise but under delivery is the BIG problem for TM now, the P85D range issue is just one most recent example! Elon promised the AWD will be more efficient than RWD in D event, but not only the EPA but also the real highway range is a lot worse in P85D compared to P85. This range issue may or may not be fixed by firmware update, but one thing certain is TM didn't delivery what they promised "range" when a lot customers understood back to Oct./Nov.

Edit: Together with a series under delivery issues in 2014, slow production ramp up, model X delay, guidance cut and P85D delay/seat/range. So it's no wonder TSLA is in low 200 instead of high 200.

It's hard not to have your opinion on a stock influenced by how the market moves, and I wonder what you would have said if Tesla never dipped below $240 and was around $280 right now, which is what I think would have made the most sense given the recent developements.

You have cherry picked a few negatives, but imo the positives far outweigh these. We have gotten a great guidance of more than 50% for years to come, the production rate is actually meant to double over the next year to a whopping 2k/week, that is a rate of around $12B of high margin sales just one year from now, at that point a $30B market cap would make Tesla look like an absolute steal given their growth. Another thing is the gigafactory being pushed ahead of schedule expected to start producing batteries in the second half of 2016 already. And then ofcourse there is the D event showing off Teslas advanced autonomous driving tech and the very much improved dual motor variant which surely will see a lot of demand and push up the ASP even higher, and margins too probably. These positive developements dwarfs stuff like a slight production miss for the year when the production capacity rate will be easily met and probably even exceeded. And as much horribly as it might be that the much more powerful, better handling dual motor variant doesn't also have better range (yet), I think it would make sense to save the pitchforks and torches a little while as we wait for the software updates.

 

[Johann Koeber]

What if I burn dinner tonight? What if the world ends at 3pm EST? What if they close down the Stock Exchange on Thursday? Really? What if...?

On topic: What if TSLA goes up tomorrow?
Answer: Some people are going to happy, some people aren't.

Stock market will be closed Thursday

Hope you didn't burn dinner.

 

[Krugerrand]

I believe that Tesla eventually gets things right, but I follow the company closely. The average car buyer may not be as forgiving.

I don't disagree with your whole assessment (didn't want to quote your whole post). But I also think that the consumer is going to change right along with the auto industry. Even with the disappointments and complaints along the way, it's virtually unanimous that the Tesla cars are the best people have owned and an obvious choice. So I think Tesla will change consumer expectations as they change the industry itself. If the product is otherwise the bomb (which it is), constantly improving and getting better, people will grumble and wave their hands but still buy the product.

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Stock market will be closed Thursday

Hope you didn't burn dinner.

Yes, it will be closed Thursday and I'm pretty sure the world won't end. Might be going out on a limb there, but....

Dinner was very good, if I do say so myself. And I do. :tongue:

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Anyone think the price will pull back Monday or Tuesday? I was hoping to buy a few more share before this thing charges up to $300.

Yes, I think some pull back. Any minute now I expect 2-3 SA articles about various P85D/Twitter stuff and for those to be picked up by the wider media. It'll be a mini end-o-the-Tesla-world smorgasbord. You're golden.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

Sounds like we need a special prosecutor assigned and possible impeachment. Let's get real. Do we know The rated range yet? I bought my model s with a range from tesla of 300 miles which became the ideal range and customers had choice of this or the official range to use. Rang depends on driving done. My wife gets better than ideal range with our roadster. I don't know anyone ele that can do that. I get close to ideal range with the model s. How about waiting before everyone goes off deep end.

Rated miles is somewhere between in the 220-240 range from the readout in the drivers LCD panel. What P85D drivers are seeing in terms of kWh/mile is substantially more than P85+ drivers were seeing.

This has nothing to do with prosecutions and everything to do with Tesla's reputation. Another company, Hyundai, made claims a few years ago, that its compact car, the Elantra, had a 40 MPG efficiency on the highway. This turned out not to be true, resulting in lots of bad press for the Korean automaker, and worse, lots of angry customers. Ford faced similar issues with the C-Max and Fusion hybrids. Tesla management says they want the company to be better than the other automakers. So yeah, I hold them to a higher standard and expect that they provide more accurate info than Ford and Hyundai. How is it that the P85D has an EPA sticker rating of 94 Mpge, higher than the P85+, yet P85D drivers cannot match the kWh/mile of the older car?

Again, I think Tesla will eventually make this situation right. They just need to manage their information releases in a better way.