Here is my data:
I have a Model 3 Performance with Performance Upgrade (ie. 20-inch wheels) and my driving is largely dictated by commuting in Los Angeles area freeway traffic (65-70 mph @ 5 a.m. and 35-40 @ 3 p.m.). Disclaimer: I don't drive aggressively during my commute since it is not worth it for me. I see many drivers do numerous lane changes only to be 1/4 to 1/2 mile ahead of me after 45 minutes of effort or high beaming since the car in front of them isn't going fast enough for them. I can live with the fact it will take me 2 additional minutes out of 45-50 to save a little energy, save wear and tear on tires and avoid road rage. Don't get me wrong, I like a fast car which is why I have a Performance.
For the first 10517 miles with the 20-inch OEM wheels, I consumed 2480 kWh. This translates to 235.8 Wh/mi. which is decent for a Model 3 Performance, but horrible compared to our Model 3 RWD LR.
Since I managed to damage one of the 20-inch wheels by running over a steel black dropped by the truck in front of me, I decided to go with 18x8.5 replacement wheels and the same Michelin Pilot Sport 4S tires but in size 235/45R18 to give the wheels more protection from road hazards. It should be noted the 18-inch setup is now 11.4 lb lighter per wheel/tire. In the 957 miles with the new setup, I have consumed 210 kWh which translates in 219.4 Wh/mi. So to answer the question what effect 20-inch wheel have, the answer is ~7 percent. This is just an observation and not a scientific test by any means.
Onto to the question of whether the Model 3 will get the full rated mileage of 310. In my case the answer is yes based single day's use with significant mileage. I normally set the charging to 70%. It showed 223 miles range at the start. Over course of 10 hours including stops with use of Sentry, I drove 191 miles in typical LA traffic and AC was set to auto at 72F, I consumed 42 kWh which translates to 219.9 Wh/mi. At the end, the range showed 28 miles. This seems reasonable since 191 driven miles + 4 miles for Sentry + 28 remaining miles = 223 miles at the beginning. This shows I should get around 315-320 miles range on a 100%.