Poll: 81% of Prospective Model 3 Owners Say They Won’t Pay Upfront For Full Self-Driving

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]It seems most prospective Model 3 owners aren’t willing to shell out cash upfront for a $3,000 “full self-driving capability” option that is likely years away from becoming available to engage.

In a poll posted by jsraw 81.3% (347) of respondents said they will not pay for the feature at purchase. Adding the option later will cost an additional $1,000. Of respondents, 18.7% said they will pay for FSD upfront.

According to Tesla’s website, FSD “doubles the number of active cameras from four to eight, enabling full self-driving in almost all circumstances, at what we believe will be a probability of safety at least twice as good as the average human driver. The system is designed to be able to conduct short and long distance trips with no action required by the person in the driver’s seat. For Superchargers that have automatic charge connection enabled, you will not even need to plug in your vehicle.”

Elon Musk has said that level 5 autonomous driving is possible with second generation Autopilot and the FSD option, meaning the car is fully autonomous in any and all conditions. During his TED talk in April, Musk said the company plans to conduct by the end of 2017 a coast-to-coast demo drive from California to New York without the driver touching the wheel.

Obviously, there will be regulatory hurdles ahead and Musk has said it will likely be two years before owners will be able to engage FSD capability.

See a few comments on the poll below, or go to the thread here.

Swift

EinSV

jason1466

Waiting4M3

Enginerd[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

 

[Phrixotrichus]

By what definition?
Certainly not by the current standard, but you don't need to go back too many decades...
Forty times prior power, or whatever it is, qualifies in my book.

you said it yourself....

Certainly not by the current standard,

One little example discussed previously on this forum is using all of the cameras while EAP will be specifically limited to four.
So EAP+'FSD feature' could require current nags, but result in a more capable and confident experience while regulation jurisdictions fight (or not) over the new realities.

Only time will tell. At the moment all we have is the promise of a CEO of a stock company.....
Maybe I´ll eat my words in a few years and that would truly be a wonderful surprise, but I`m highly sceptical considering that basically everyone else in the industry targets timeframes for FSD introduction that are nowhere near Musk`s "near future".
And since FSD is also something that can be activated at a later point...what reason is there to purchase it upfront when there`s still nothing to it?

 

[JeffK]

you said it yourself....

Consider this: Both Drive PX2 and the newest Xavier SoC from Nvidia both can do certain computations faster than a $100 million dollar supercomputer ASCII White back in the year 2000/2001.

Last time I checked full self driving meant "full self driving" and not "maybe you get some extra features sometimes in the future.".

If you want to be technical, FSD is a package you can purchase from Tesla. They never said they'd simply flip a switch and turn it all on at once. Look at how AP2 EAP was enabled... slowly. The same will likely apply to FSD. Right now FSD package != FSD would you agree or disagree? You are mixing up the features of the future FSD package and actual FSD which would be at some undetermined time. The FSD package would include any and all features above those offered by EAP (actual FSD or not). It's not debatable and disagreeing means nothing.

Maybe I´ll eat my words in a few years and that would truly be a wonderful surprise,

If you've seen any of the demos from Waymo, Cruise, Bosch, MobilEye, etc of the full self driving tech it's far closer than you think. You keep thinking it has to be perfect and that humans are some magical beings with infinite perception. Both are not true. That line of thinking is stuck in the last century.

The vast majority of fatal accidents are caused by human error, even reducing this a little will save lives.

 

[Bridor]

I won't be buying autopilot or FSD. My configuration:

Low Range Model 3 ($35,000)
Premium Upgrades Package ($5,000)
Blue Paint ($1,000)

Total Price $41,000. After I have paid off the car, I will add the two software upgrades for $10,000.

Brent

 

[Rockster]

It's interesting that 80% of people who happily paid a $1000 deposit on a car that was just a promise are so vehemently opposed to spending $3000 on technology that's also a promise. I have no doubt that if FSD fails to materialize I'll get my money back, probably with interest. In the meantime, I'm happy to help Tesla reach their goal.

 

[Bad Horse]

I won't be buying autopilot or FSD. My configuration:

Low Range Model 3 ($35,000)
Premium Upgrades Package ($5,000)
Blue Paint ($1,000)

Total Price $41,000. After I have paid off the car, I will add the two software upgrades for $10,000.

Brent

This is the correct answer, and my thoughts exactly

 

[VeraC]

I won't be buying autopilot or FSD. My configuration:

Low Range Model 3 ($35,000)
Premium Upgrades Package ($5,000)
Blue Paint ($1,000)

Total Price $41,000. After I have paid off the car, I will add the two software upgrades for $10,000.

Brent

Can you actually upgrade later??

 

[VeraC]

But, you won't get to use FSD until regulators authorize its use...

I heard that regulatory authorizations were bogus and something Tesla can hide behind. I don't know if that's true or not.

 

[JeffK]

I heard that regulatory authorizations were bogus and something Tesla can hide behind. I don't know if that's true or not.

From the demos from Tesla, Waymo, Cruise, etc I believe the software may be fairly advanced, much more than the public perceives. Even if they have this, they still have to prove it's safer than a human alone both for regulators and for their own reputation. It's not going to be perfect, but it's going to be pretty darn cool.

When it's first released it may be a lvl 2 FSD experience if that makes sense. That's what it is now at least for the engineers. It's far more full featured than EAP, but still requires a very quick takeover in certain situations. Even when we look at the Waymo stuff which some consider lvl 3, their disengagements are still under 2 seconds before manual takeover.

 

[Phrixotrichus]

Consider this: Both Drive PX2 and the newest Xavier SoC from Nvidia both can do certain computations faster than a $100 million dollar supercomputer ASCII White back in the year 2000/2001.

Yeah, with that argumentation every computing device EVER is a supercomputer. Don´t you have to laugh yourself while writing something like that?

If you've seen any of the demos from Waymo, Cruise, Bosch, MobilEye, etc of the full self driving tech it's far closer than you think. You keep thinking it has to be perfect and that humans are some magical beings with infinite perception. Both are not true.

Because demos are never staged /prepared/in controlled environments/for show and 100% applicaple for everyday use, always....

That line of thinking is stuck in the last century..

and u re still stuck in the "fan viewpoint" and don`t see what`s actually going on....autopilots can`t cope with the simplest situations yet, and even in the "demos" people have to adjust constantly if its not a very "controlled" situation.
It`s not like the rest of the industry is stupid and only Musk knows what`s happening.......

 

[Cloxxki]

After previous AP experiences, isn't it a bit of an insult to reservation holder to even offer a $3K FSD opgrade at this stage? It's not even an interest free loan, it's a donation for a program they're trying to make anyway. Those who do pay the $3K before a full autonomous drive is shown (beyond the wobbly published one) really need to be asked for their reasons. They're likely more cult inspired than anything else. It's not like Tesla will take the option away for later purshase.

 

[landis]

Only time will tell. At the moment all we have is the promise of a CEO of a stock company.....
Maybe I´ll eat my words in a few years and that would truly be a wonderful surprise, but I`m highly sceptical considering that basically everyone else in the industry targets timeframes for FSD introduction that are nowhere near Musk`s "near future".
And since FSD is also something that can be activated at a later point...what reason is there to purchase it upfront when there`s still nothing to it?

You mean chief engineer of a innovative BEV company who is also the CEO.
Not all CEOs are created equal. In my experience, I much prefer a technical CEO to the best marketing or finance variants.
In my experience, not all software engineers are equal either.

Nah, I don't expect you to eat any words while I enjoy interim milestones towards FSD 'real soon now'. Your words are too slippery for that. ;-)

I already explained my reasons up thread.

 

[Paul in PalmCity]

I like the recent story I read about how the computer can (and will) be upgraded as needed in Hardware 2 AP vehicles for FSD (per Elon Musk). As for FSD definition: PRSIST - did you read the very first post? Full Self Drive... just author's shorthand for this post.

 

[VeraC]

From the demos from Tesla, Waymo, Cruise, etc I believe the software may be fairly advanced, much more than the public perceives. Even if they have this, they still have to prove it's safer than a human alone both for regulators and for their own reputation. It's not going to be perfect, but it's going to be pretty darn cool.

When it's first released it may be a lvl 2 FSD experience if that makes sense. That's what it is now at least for the engineers. It's far more full featured than EAP, but still requires a very quick takeover in certain situations. Even when we look at the Waymo stuff which some consider lvl 3, their disengagements are still under 2 seconds before manual takeover.

Thanks for the info.

 

[IhateOPEC]

For those of you expecting your money back if FSD doesn't materialize, how long does Tesla have to make good? What constitutes FSD? Is it good enough if it is 80% there in 3 years? My point is buy it when they have something real.

 

[JeffK]

For those of you expecting your money back if FSD doesn't materialize, how long does Tesla have to make good? What constitutes FSD? Is it good enough if it is 80% there in 3 years? My point is buy it when they have something real.

According to the website:

[FSD] doubles the number of active cameras from four to eight, enabling full self-driving in almost all circumstances, at what we believe will be a probability of safety at least twice as good as the average human driver. The system is designed to be able to conduct short and long distance trips with no action required by the person in the driver’s seat. For Superchargers that have automatic charge connection enabled, you will not even need to plug in your vehicle.

All you will need to do is get in and tell your car where to go. If you don’t say anything, the car will look at your calendar and take you there as the assumed destination or just home if nothing is on the calendar. Your Tesla will figure out the optimal route, navigate urban streets (even without lane markings), manage complex intersections with traffic lights, stop signs and roundabouts, and handle densely packed freeways with cars moving at high speed. When you arrive at your destination, simply step out at the entrance and your car will enter park seek mode, automatically search for a spot and park itself. A tap on your phone summons it back to you.

It is not possible to know exactly when each element of the functionality described above will be available, as this is highly dependent on local regulatory approval. Please note also that using a self-driving Tesla for car sharing and ride hailing for friends and family is fine, but doing so for revenue purposes will only be permissible on the Tesla Network, details of which will be released next year.

So the timeframe is someday. However, it should have some or all of the features listed. They are also not making the claim that it will or even has to work in all possible situations.

 

[lunitiks]

Timetable is "someday", and it "should" have "some or all" features listed... !!! What blows my mind is that you're actually right. It's just the way you phrased it kinda makes you think

 

[Foxhound199]

Can you actually upgrade later??

They'd be crazy not to. Then again, they'd be crazy to make a big deal about the fact that you can upgrade later. But somewhere down the road, if I want to throw thousands of dollars their way just for flipping a switch, it's almost unfathomable that there won't be a way to do it.

Either way, I'm definitely in the no AP or FSD camp right now. Perhaps I just don't know what I'm missing, but from my perspective, that ignorance can save me a hefty heap of money.

 

[Chris Clark]

If you want to be technical, FSD is a package you can purchase from Tesla. They never said they'd simply flip a switch and turn it all on at once. Look at how AP2 EAP was enabled... slowly. The same will likely apply to FSD. Right now FSD package != FSD would you agree or disagree? You are mixing up the features of the future FSD package and actual FSD which would be at some undetermined time. The FSD package would include any and all features above those offered by EAP (actual FSD or not). It's not debatable and disagreeing means nothing.

I couldn't agree with this more.

I am surprised that with so many experience software devs here that they seem to think FSD will not introduce new features incrementally. That is exactly how modern software development works. Using agile methodologies, minimal viable product (MVP), and release when ready best practices. The idea to deliver smaller pieces of value to end users in frequent releases. Instead of saving up a ton of things for a single huge big bang release.

I do feel like especially reading through all the comments in this thread that even level 4 FSD is going to be a few more years out than I originally thought. But I absolutely think that features beyond EAP like handling stop signs will be released incrementally just like AP2 EAP has been since its release last year.

Why would AP2 FSD be different?

I really don't think FSD is not going to magically be released in one huge release one day and we go from only having EAP to 100% implementation of FSD. Yet the way everyone else is talking about FSD acts like that is the way it is going to be.

 

[Swift]

I know a number of people who bought/leased their AP2 cars in 2016 based on the EAP/FSD statements on the website at that time (Tesla has modified the language since), the FSD video on the website, and Elon's statement that Tesla would be capable of FSD from coast to coast by the end of 2017.

These people spent a lot of money not only on those options, but on the base car required to get to those capabilities. If they had known that FSD was not likely achievable anytime in the next who knows how many years, they probably wouldn't have bought the car let alone the options.

The out that Tesla has here is regulatory approval. But you have to submit something for regulatory approval to play that card.

 

[JeffK]

Elon's statement that Tesla would be capable of FSD from coast to coast by the end of 2017.

There's a large difference between what a consumer might view as capable (to the customer) vs a manufacturer's demo.

As far as the demo:

I feel pretty good about this goal is that we will be able to demonstrate a demonstration drive of our full autonomy all the way from LA to New York. So basically from home in LA to let’s say dropping you off in Times Square, NY and then having the car parking itself by the end of next year (2017) without the need for a single touch including the charger.

From that alone customers should gather that FSD will not be available anytime in 2016, 2017, and may or may not be available early 2018 since the manufacturers demo is optimistically at the end of 2017. Anything enabled for consumers would be after this time.

Personally, I plan to get the performance Model 3. The timeline for this vehicle means I can actually choose FSD after seeing that demo. In addition, since it's so much later than even the RWD Model 3, if there are additional hardware improvements, hopefully I'll get those as well.