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Poll: Tesla US EV Federal Tax Credit ends Q1 or Q2 ???

Will the US EV Federal Tax Credit reach it's 200,000 phaseout milestone in Q1 or Q2 2018?

  • Q1 2018

    Votes: 8 8.4%
  • Q2 2018

    Votes: 87 91.6%

  • Total voters
    95
  • Poll closed .
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How many first day reservations were made?

Here are the numbers that were released:

115,000 @ 31 Mar 2016, 20:57 PST
133,822 @ 31 Mar 2016, 22:15 PST
180,000 @ 1 Apr 2016, 09:11 PST
198,000 @ 1 Apr 2016, 10:23 PST
232,000 @ 1 Apr 2016, 19:26 PST
253,000 @ 2 Apr 2016, 07:00 PST
276,000 @ 3 Apr 2016, 00:01 PST
325,000 @ 7 Apr 2016, 07:21 PST
373,000 @ 15 May 2016, 13:00 PST
518,000 @ 28 July 2017

Is there any data showing how many reservation holders there are in certain geographical areas?

No, but it is possible to calculate some estimates based on Model S/X sales data. For example, we have Califonia Tesla sales for every quarter because those are published by cncda.org (California New Car Dealers Association). We have US sales for 2014, 2015 and Q3 2016 because they were published by Tesla and we have global sales for every quarter, again published by Tesla. I'm not sure what exactly do you want to calculate.
 
Unless Congress gets rid of it, there is a 0% chance it will run out entirely in 2018. I think you meant to ask when Tesla will hit 200K domestic sales and the incentive taper begins. I think it will likely happen in Q2, but they may be able to delay it until Q3.

You mean like sell the 199,999th car on the last day of Q2 and the 200,000th one on first day Q3! :D
 
Here are the numbers that were released:

115,000 @ 31 Mar 2016, 20:57 PST
133,822 @ 31 Mar 2016, 22:15 PST
180,000 @ 1 Apr 2016, 09:11 PST
198,000 @ 1 Apr 2016, 10:23 PST
232,000 @ 1 Apr 2016, 19:26 PST
253,000 @ 2 Apr 2016, 07:00 PST
276,000 @ 3 Apr 2016, 00:01 PST
325,000 @ 7 Apr 2016, 07:21 PST
373,000 @ 15 May 2016, 13:00 PST
518,000 @ 28 July 2017



No, but it is possible to calculate some estimates based on Model S/X sales data. For example, we have Califonia Tesla sales for every quarter because those are published by cncda.org (California New Car Dealers Association). We have US sales for 2014, 2015 and Q3 2016 because they were published by Tesla and we have global sales for every quarter, again published by Tesla. I'm not sure what exactly do you want to calculate.
I was just trying to figure out how many reservation holders I might have in front of me, in the Portland area. I have a first day reservation, but I didn't show up to purchase it until after work at about 4:30 PM. I'm hoping to get the standard battery with dual motor setup while getting the full $7,500 tax credit.
 
I was just trying to figure out how many reservation holders I might have in front of me, in the Portland area. I have a first day reservation, but I didn't show up to purchase it until after work at about 4:30 PM. I'm hoping to get the standard battery with dual motor setup while getting the full $7,500 tax credit.

I think you will get your config way before the standard battery is available. By 4pm first day, probably about 100K reservations. I think I read somewhere that 7% of them are current owners? So you will be in the first 7000. CA owners first day already got invite, and CA owner first day probably about 1000? So 6000 left and you are somewhere in the middle of that.
 
Just a basic question about the Model 3 I picked up in the first two weeks of 2018... Given that my rebate is going to be part of my 2018 Federal taxes, which won't be filed until 2019, is there anything I should do between now and then to make sure I'm going to be eligible for the full federal rebate at that time?
 
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My Excel estimator shows around June 21st 2018 based on the latest Dec 2017 sales and assuming 20,000 Model 3 sales this year.
And if sales are 50,000 M3s in US for 2018, then Tesla will hit 200K on March 20th.

upload_2018-1-16_15-49-26.png
 
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Just a basic question about the Model 3 I picked up in the first two weeks of 2018... Given that my rebate is going to be part of my 2018 Federal taxes, which won't be filed until 2019, is there anything I should do between now and then to make sure I'm going to be eligible for the full federal rebate at that time?
Make more money? lol

You can adjust your withholding higher and start clawing back that $7500.
 
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Just a basic question about the Model 3 ... is there anything I should do between now and then to make sure I'm going to be eligible for the full federal rebate at that time?
I believe its here Internal Revenue Bulletin: 2009-48 | Internal Revenue Service
(2) The original use of the vehicle commences with the taxpayer;

(3) The vehicle is acquired for use or lease by the taxpayer, and not for resale; and

(4) The vehicle is used predominantly in the United States.
 
Just a basic question about the Model 3 I picked up in the first two weeks of 2018... Given that my rebate is going to be part of my 2018 Federal taxes, which won't be filed until 2019, is there anything I should do between now and then to make sure I'm going to be eligible for the full federal rebate at that time?
The most important thing is to make sure you have tax liability (i.e., the total amount of tax you owe for the year without respect to withholding, estimated payments, etc.) of at least $7,500, because the tax *credit* is non-refundable. That is, the credit extends only up to the amount of your tax liability, if it's less than $7,500, in the year you take delivery.
 
My Excel estimator shows around June 21st 2018 based on the latest Dec 2017 sales and assuming 20,000 Model 3 sales this year.
And if sales are 50,000 M3s in US for 2018, then Tesla will hit 200K on March 20th.

View attachment 273726

I think 20K Model 3 in 2018 is way low. They delivered 1772 in December, which at the same rate through 2018 would be 21K cars, but they are ramping up production in a non-linear fashion. The plan was to be producing 5000 M3s a week by the end of the year, which is a missed target, but they will get there soon. The target for the end of 2018 is 10,000 a week.

I expect at some time this year there will be a sharp elbow in the rate of production when they get the production problems worked out and they will zoom to around 5000 a week or more. If they average 5000 a week for 2018, that's 250K M3s this year.

For the tax credit, when they hit that elbow is an unknown, but important point. If they hit it around the time they hit 200 K American sales, then a fair number of reservation holders will get their cars in the last 1-2 quarters of the full incentive, and an even bigger number will get a partial tax credit during the phase out.

There are a lot of M3 buyers who don't pay $7500 in income tax now, so they won't see the full credit even if they qualify. I didn't use all of it.
 
There are a lot of M3 buyers who don't pay $7500 in income tax now, so they won't see the full credit even if they qualify.
The latest changes to the tax code, particularly increasing the standard deduction and limiting or eliminating some itemized deductions, makes it harder to legally manipulate income (increase it) to qualify if tax liability is less than the optimum. However, if you have a business with flexible income or expenses, or have traditional IRAs that can be converted to Roth IRAs, and maybe other ways I haven't thought of, it's still possible.
 
You can adjust your withholding higher and start clawing back that $7500.

OK, sorry to keep asking questions, but I want to make sure I don't miss out on this credit. So, I have a full-time job that is going to result in significantly more than $7500 being withheld from my paychecks (over the course of the year) for Federal income taxes. If I end up having, say, $8,000 withheld, and I only owe $1 (after doing my taxes in 2019), I'm going to get a refund of $7499 ($1 - $7500 for the credit), right? Or will I only get the full credit if I actually *owe* at least $7500, despite having had quite a bit more than that withheld from my paychecks throughout the year?

My understanding is that as long as you pay at least $7500 in federal income taxes one year (including those paid via paycheck deductions), you'll get the full credit (as a refund, mailed to you by the IRS) even if you owe $0 when it comes time to file your taxes. In this case, the comment that you need to adjust your withholding seems incorrect (although reducing the amount being withheld will get you some of that money sooner, in the form of income throughout the year because of larger net pay vs. a refund check sometime in 2019).
 
OK, sorry to keep asking questions, but I want to make sure I don't miss out on this credit. So, I have a full-time job that is going to result in significantly more than $7500 being withheld from my paychecks (over the course of the year) for Federal income taxes. If I end up having, say, $8,000 withheld, and I only owe $1 (after doing my taxes in 2019), I'm going to get a refund of $7499 ($1 - $7500 for the credit), right? Or will I only get the full credit if I actually *owe* at least $7500, despite having had quite a bit more than that withheld from my paychecks throughout the year?

My understanding is that as long as you pay at least $7500 in federal income taxes one year (including those paid via paycheck deductions), you'll get the full credit (as a refund, mailed to you by the IRS) even if you owe $0 when it comes time to file your taxes. In this case, the comment that you need to adjust your withholding seems incorrect (although reducing the amount being withheld will get you some of that money sooner, in the form of income throughout the year because of larger net pay vs. a refund check sometime in 2019).

It reduces the taxes you owe (tax burden) by 7,500. up to 7,500 (it is not a credit, so you cannot get back more than you paid)

If you had withholding of 8k and that 8k would be what you paid in taxes without the Tesla, with it you pay 500 and get a 7,500 refund.
If you adjust your withholding to be 500 for the year, you owe nothing additional, and your take home pay is about 600 more a month.

The owe means your tax liability, not how much you underpaid during the year.

Edit: replaced strikethough with new words (rest of that section) per suggestion by @Dr. J
 
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It reduces the taxes you owe (tax burden) by 7,500 if you (would) owe at least $7,500 in tax irrespective of withholding, estimated payments, etc.
If you had withholding of 8k and that 8k would be what you paid in taxes without the Tesla, with it you pay 500 and get a 7,500 refund.
If you adjust your withholding to be 500 for the year, you owe nothing additional, and your take home pay is about 600 more a month.

The owe means your tax liability, not how much you underpaid during the year.
FTFY. And a very good explanation.
 
The latest changes to the tax code, particularly increasing the standard deduction and limiting or eliminating some itemized deductions, makes it harder to legally manipulate income (increase it) to qualify if tax liability is less than the optimum. However, if you have a business with flexible income or expenses, or have traditional IRAs that can be converted to Roth IRAs, and maybe other ways I haven't thought of, it's still possible.

Businesses with pass through income like S-corps get a tax break too. As I understand it, people who get income from a pass through get a 20% deduction of that income. So if you get $50K pass through income, you get a $10K tax deduction.

OK, sorry to keep asking questions, but I want to make sure I don't miss out on this credit. So, I have a full-time job that is going to result in significantly more than $7500 being withheld from my paychecks (over the course of the year) for Federal income taxes. If I end up having, say, $8,000 withheld, and I only owe $1 (after doing my taxes in 2019), I'm going to get a refund of $7499 ($1 - $7500 for the credit), right? Or will I only get the full credit if I actually *owe* at least $7500, despite having had quite a bit more than that withheld from my paychecks throughout the year?

My understanding is that as long as you pay at least $7500 in federal income taxes one year (including those paid via paycheck deductions), you'll get the full credit (as a refund, mailed to you by the IRS) even if you owe $0 when it comes time to file your taxes. In this case, the comment that you need to adjust your withholding seems incorrect (although reducing the amount being withheld will get you some of that money sooner, in the form of income throughout the year because of larger net pay vs. a refund check sometime in 2019).

Withholding has nothing to do with it. If you knew you were getting the credit, you could get your employer to do less withholding throughout the year. The credit is just taken directly off your tax owed. Social security and medicare are a separate tax and is ignored for this discussion.

Say you did your taxes in April 2019 and you owed $6000 in federal income tax, you then subtract $7500 from that getting -$1500, but the credit is only against one year's tax, so you owe $0 federal income tax and the extra $1500 is lost forever. If your employer withheld out $8000, the IRS will refund $8000 to you.

Say your tax owed was $20,000 instead (most likely with a much higher income than above). You would deduct the $7500 and still owe $12,500. If your employer only took out $8000, you need to write the IRS a check for $4500 plus penalties and I would suggest adjusting your withholding with your employer ASAP to prevent it happening even worse the next year.

The tax credit was created to give an incentive to wealthier people to encourage them to buy more expensive EVs and help the technology develop and go mainstream. Different people have different tax situations, but it would be pretty difficult for someone making less than about $60K to end up owing $7500. With all the deductions available for dependents, mortgage deductions, property tax deductions, and various other things that kick in for the lower 60-70% of tax payers, most people making that or less pay less than $7500 a year in federal income tax. I came across a plausible scenario for a family of 4 with a household income of $100K who owed less than $7500. I think I posted it in the tax credit thread here on the forum.

I suspect the thinking of the people who crafted the bill in the first place were that people who owe more than $7500 a year in income probably have more than one car and they can afford to invest in new technology that may not be reliable. If the EV was in the shop again, they had other cars to drive. Whereas encouraging poorer people to drive EVs could leave them carless at times if their one car breaks down.

Tesla slotted right into this tax strategy, aiming for the top of the market first and the bulk of their early customers were people who had enough income to really benefit from the credit.

We see all the taxes taken out of each paycheck and think we're paying a lot of our income in taxes, but in reality for most people making less than around $100K per year, you're probably paying more in social security, medicare, and local/state taxes combined than you pay in federal income tax.
 
Just a basic question about the Model 3 I picked up in the first two weeks of 2018... Given that my rebate is going to be part of my 2018 Federal taxes, which won't be filed until 2019, is there anything I should do between now and then to make sure I'm going to be eligible for the full federal rebate at that time?

A. Increase your income for 2018 compared to 2017
B. Do nothing
C. reduce your income for 2018 compared to 2017

pay attention to your tax liability for 2017. If it was 7,500 exactly you likely want to do nothing different in 2018. Let the chips fall where they may.

If your 2017 tax liability was noticeably less than 7,500 then do what you can to increase your income (sell a stock in a taxable account for a profit?)

If your 2017 tax liability was noticeably more than 7,500 you can either do nothing or try to minimize your taxes. (harder to actually do in a constructive way)
 
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