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Poll: When will FSD V12 be in wide release?
- Thread starter Terminator857
- Start date
So have you had your hearing
checked 
since we "waited two weeks" and didn’t “see” 
V12 released?
I heard they're shutting the whole thing down in 2 weeks after releasing v11.4.kiss.our.@$$.suckers.So have you had your hearing
I'm betting we get 11.4.x starting in early/mid Feb in a 24.2.x.x software and keep all of us (Early Access too) on the same software. When V12 is released (hopefully before May) I bet it goes to Early Access first and we get back on the "split" release software at least for a few months of testing (so I can fuss again about missing features on older softwareI heard they're shutting the whole thing down in 2 weeks after releasing v11.4.kiss.our.@$$.suckers.
) .Hopefully V12 will be available to all by mid summer to early fall BUT if V10 to V11 is any example (and it was a lesser change) we could be closer to end of 2024 before V12 is released.
I voted Mid year but I'm trying to be optimistic for a mid to late spring release.
Based on information shared by TeslaScope I'm guessing by end of February for a good number of FSD testers. TeslaScope has been the most accurate third party in providing good updates on all things Tesla.I'm betting we get 11.4.x starting in early/mid Feb in a 24.2.x.x software and keep all of us (Early Access too) on the same software. When V12 is released (hopefully before May) I bet it goes to Early Access first and we get back on the "split" release software at least for a few months of testing (so I can fuss again about missing features on older software
Hopefully V12 will be available to all by mid summer to early fall BUT if V10 to V11 is any example (and it was a lesser change) we could be closer to end of 2024 before V12 is released.
I voted Mid year but I'm trying to be optimistic for a mid to late spring release.
We know it was overfitted for fair weather and Tesla is working hard to get it to work in the rain. [conjecture]However I doubt even if they get it rain ready that quickly (not likely) they would turn it loose on snow with very little to no snow training. So it will have to wait until at least spring to avoid snow issues.
You're such a pessimist.
I'm going to stick with the end of February for at least some FSD beta testers. That would include me of course!Have you tested FSD (current releases) in snow? It's pretty terrible. For safe usage you have to monitor extremely carefully and will end up intervening pretty quickly (typically from lane positioning issues and excessive speed under low grip).
So, the bar for V12 in snow is incredibly low. Just rain on the other hand is handled very well by current releases.
That's actually good news as far as V12 timelines. My guess: snow is not the limiting factor at all for a V12 release.
Incidentally I'm very curious a) if current V12 builds use much snowy condition training data b) how well it works c) and most importantly how much end-to-end AI makes progress easier for snow driving. From my understanding of AI and FSD today, so many aspects of snowy driving are likely very hard to hand code but very amendale to an AI approach (things pathing decisions in snow, where humans often ignore the lane lines to an extent in favor of following tracks of previous cars).
Tesla has a big enough fleet at this point they probably have access to unlimited(ish) snow driving to pull training data from. I'm optimistically bullish about the future of FSD on snow (over the next couple years)
As stated I think I'm being an optimist and spring is ONLY a FEW days after February.You're such a pessimist.
You do remember when Elon announced V11 and WE ALL expected the release to be imminent.......day after week after month and even a year.......? Well that was not the first fool me once or even twice or third time.......V11 turned into OVER a year of waiting for a final version that wasn't the "one stack to rule them all" and missing parking lots and ASS as promised. If V12 follows the same precedent as V11 we are still MORE than a year away from release.
Also we all KNOW "two weeks" Elon is WAY beyond optimistic and is quick to promote any possible future feature with full on hyperbole (how many times "FSD by the end of the year" has he proclaimed?). So his tempered "...needs more training...." to V12 seems to indicate it is more challenging than even HE thought. And this was ONLY a few days ago he said this. I know we all want to believe Elon has "changed" and is more responsible but we assign this same "he has changed" behavior to him over and over and over when in reality people don't fundamentally change (and just look at his MySpace posts to see his behavior is the same or WORSE).
So keeping V11 and Elon in mind I think it is:
- Optimism: spring (just around the corner )
- Most likely: summer
- Pessimism: fall
- Mirroring V11 development: 1st qt of 25 (and as an original FSD Beta tester I lived this)
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DanCar
Active Member
I'm thinking the turnaround on this to the public will be much faster than FSD 11.
If they're already testing Actually Smart Summon on FSD 12 as of this last weekend, then it sounds like they have some stable code to work with and begin adding features to.
DanCar
Active Member
Partially Self-Driving (PSD) v12.1.2 is now going out to *some* customers and includes vehicles with HW4 for the first time.
So far nothing on Teslafi and it sounds like Teslascope saw just a few customer cars (very small volume and apparently not going to OG testers).
This release in particular will be an interesting one to see how they roll this out. Assuming this does go out to public testers (Teslascope has been pretty reliable), this is a pretty big milestone! The first (presumably) complete rebuild of the driving decision making logic that in it's current form dates back to about 2 years ago from the first FSD Beta release in September 2021.
Given the magnitude of change here they may go for a slower than normal rollout (although maybe with enough extra internal testing they won't feel the need to).
I'm so curious to see how much the little details that bug me w/ FSD today are improved. Testing is going to be so much fun. Everything has the potential of being tweaked a bit, vs previous V11 iterations where 99% of it's behavior was identical.
This release in particular will be an interesting one to see how they roll this out. Assuming this does go out to public testers (Teslascope has been pretty reliable), this is a pretty big milestone! The first (presumably) complete rebuild of the driving decision making logic that in it's current form dates back to about 2 years ago from the first FSD Beta release in September 2021.
Given the magnitude of change here they may go for a slower than normal rollout (although maybe with enough extra internal testing they won't feel the need to).
I'm so curious to see how much the little details that bug me w/ FSD today are improved. Testing is going to be so much fun. Everything has the potential of being tweaked a bit, vs previous V11 iterations where 99% of it's behavior was identical.
The risk is always that your next drive could be much different than the previous.
Tesla Joy on Youtube keeps testing a few tricky parts and sometimes it's better only to regress after the next update.
"FSD Beta 12 is installing on my car" https://x.com/WholeMarsBlog/status/1749231489806717102?s=20
- more in his X Feed: Whole Mars Catalog (@WholeMarsBlog) / X (twitter.com)
- more in his X Feed: Whole Mars Catalog (@WholeMarsBlog) / X (twitter.com)
The first thing FSD neuralnet needs to get trained is driving you from your home to the Emergency Room/Hospital with zero interventions. Would be great if there is a mode where you can train your for that drive. Drop you off to the E.D. entrance then go park itself. Make this a reality and lots of old folks will be buying FSD.
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