Potential Impact of VW Diesel Cheating on EV Sales in the U.S. And Europe

[Auzie]

The mistakes that major auto-makers are making are so careless and so heinous it almost makes me feel sorry for them.

#1 Toyota's fuel cell goose chase will (I believe) be seen as one of the 5 worst strategic blunders in corporate history.

And now #2 commits an error that is so unbelievably stupid I'm just at a loss...

I guess we're all just humans, all very subject to confirmation bias and groupthink, but just wow.


VWs cash position is strong at ~18b USD at the end of last year but I suspect this will delay any serious Tesla competitors that VW had in the works, while drawing attention to the inferiority of ICE-mobiles.

Staring at my TSLA is so schadenfreudelicous today.

Agree with you, both Toyota and VW are making huge strategic mistakes. They bet their future on the wrong technology.

When the corporate vision is defined in terms of selling cars rather than in terms of creating value for customers, it is no surprise that the outcome is what it is

Good write up by J.V. on Green Car Reports, Why Did VW Cheat On Diesel Emissions On Its TDI Cars

Few highlights

As they could not achieve both engine performance and meet tough NA emission standards, VW engineers chose to cheat to be able to sell the car.

VW corporate vision feeds right into this unfortunate outcome

 

[Ampster]

I enjoy the simplicity of knowing that coulombs are moving my car and my solar panels produce enough power to charge my car.

 

[jkirkebo]

I enjoy the simplicity of knowing that coulombs are moving my car and my solar panels produce enough power to charge my car.

I even sometimes charge my car from sunlight alone, when I'm at my cabin. The cabin has no utility power, only 8 327W Sunpower panels, two 3kW Outback inverters and a 35kWh lithium battery (25kWh usable) made from Leaf modules from wrecked Leafs.

 

[gillfoto]

It has been reported on BBC News online that Bosch warned VW not to abuse the power of the software back in 2007.

 

[Benz]

It seems that the German Transport Authority KBA has sent a letter to VW in which they say/demand that VW must provide solutions regarding to this diesel scandal. They gave VW an ultimatum of October 7th 2015. If VW fails to provide any solutions then the concerning car models will not be allowed to be sold or to be moved/transported, as the homologation of these car models will then be cancelled. And that will be a very big problem.

 

[Auzie]

It seems that the German Transport Authority KBA has sent a letter to VW in which they say/demand that VW must provide solutions regarding to this diesel scandal. They gave VW an ultimatum of October 7th 2015. If VW fails to provide any solutions then the concerning car models will not be allowed to be sold or to be moved/transported, as the homologation of these car models will then be cancelled. And that will be a very big problem.

Thanks for the information, that development is significant as it may give us a better idea how German government plans to handle the problem. Any links to the letter?

 

[ChadS]

Apparently VW's solution is to convert all their TDIs to EVs. Here is one we saw yesterday at a Sun Country EVSE near the Supercharger in Revelstoke BC:

When we pulled up to the Supercharger, there was an ICE blocking three of the four stations...the driver was outside the car taking a picture. After I plugged in, they started asking questions. It turns out their son just started a job at an oil company in Calgary, and is saving up his money to buy a Model 3 as soon as they become available.

As for what VW should really do, in addition to fixing the broken cars they shipped, any "penalty" should try to mitigate the damage. I, obviously, like ideas that push EVs - add EV credits, expand on the DC charging network they already started with Chargepoint, etc.

 

[Titus]

The conspiracy theorist version is that it's punishment of the German government by Americans for the oil pipeline through Germany from Russia. Stuff like this either gets exposed right away or they stay hidden forever, according to conspiracy theorists




Ukraine Finds Itself Sidelined As Gazprom Advances With Nord Stream Two | OilPrice.com

 

[Benz]

Thanks for the information, that development is significant as it may give us a better idea how German government plans to handle the problem. Any links to the letter?

Link:
http://indianexpress.com/article/wo...to-volkswagen-on-meeting-pollution-standards/

 

[mrdoubleb]

I would not expect much impact outside the US unless it is forced by governments/regulators. As long as people can save a single Euro at the pump by going diesel, they will, even if it causes a health risk on the long run.

In my experience people almost always trade short term personal gain or convenience for a long term side effect that may or may not effect them personally. Take for example smoking: smokers keep smoking even though the health effects are known for decades. Or the US and their love of huge gas guzzling cars and inefficient engines. The only reason European consumers are so keen on buying the most economical car is due to the very high taxes on gasoline. In the US, where petrol is ridiculously cheap, fuel efficiency is secondary even though the cars pollute more with those big thirsty engines in their huge trucks. So if you tell someone in Europe the TDI engine will live 2x as long and consumes 2 liters less of the already cheaper diesel, they won't care much for gases they don't even see. So far the reaction I've seen was a shrug at best.

As for regulators/governments, let's be real: while there is some public uproar now in Germany (judging by some of the comments I've seen on German forums and by German media), politicians know this will only last a few news cycles. The migrant situation and other stuff will replace headlines and then they will eventually, after months of investigation, come up with regulation that looks tough on the outside (to win some green votes) but has built in loopholes. VW and the car industry as a whole is entrenched into government with politicians being former, current and future board members on those companies' boards. The German car industry is the engine of the German economy, the German economy is the engine of the European economy, a struggling Europe with less consumption is bad for the US and China - so no one will risk making this house of cards tumble.

The real change will come with Gen 3 and Gen 4-5 Teslas - because, let's face it, Tesla will remain the driving force of the EV revolution due to it's enormous current lead and zero "dead investments" into conventional powertrains. An EV is a brilliantly simple design compared to ICE and it is incomparably cheaper to maintain and would be much cheaper to manufacture if it wasn't for the batteries. Once battery costs go down, the EV will be much cheaper to buy and run than any ICE, hybrid or hydrogen car and the change will happen automatically.

 

[Auzie]

Link:
http://indianexpress.com/article/wo...to-volkswagen-on-meeting-pollution-standards/

Much appreciated Benz.

The required solution seems to be to meet emission standards without cheating.

The emission standards vary in different countries, hence there may be tailored responses for different markets

I doubt that Bosch was not aware of the software application. Bosch may avoid culpability as they have covered themselves by issuing a warning.

My expectation is that VW will get on top of this but at a cost

 

[ArtInCT]

I just read on Yahoo Finance that AUDI is also involved in this scandal... adding, now get this..... 2.1 MILLION AUDI to the total automobiles involved in the fray. My wife is going to have a wonderful time with this topic in her college ethics class this coming week and months. Over coffee this AM we were discussing how software parameters and tweaking these parameters can bring forth very bad results in complex devices such as automobiles and other equipment.

 

[RobStark]

 

[SebastianR]

I just read on Yahoo Finance that AUDI is also involved in this scandal... adding, now get this..... 2.1 MILLION AUDI to the total automobiles involved in the fray.

I guess I know now, why Audi didn't want to confirm to me that my car is as clean as they advertised. Who knows which other ICE car maker is next....

 

[mrdoubleb]

I just read on Yahoo Finance that AUDI is also involved in this scandal... adding, now get this..... 2.1 MILLION AUDI to the total automobiles involved in the fray. My wife is going to have a wonderful time with this topic in her college ethics class this coming week and months. Over coffee this AM we were discussing how software parameters and tweaking these parameters can bring forth very bad results in complex devices such as automobiles and other equipment.

I guess I know now, why Audi didn't want to confirm to me that my car is as clean as they advertised. Who knows which other ICE car maker is next....

I suppose you guys know, that Audi uses VW engines, right? To be more precise, VW is like this big pool of Lego and under the different outer shells all their brands share the majority of their components. All VW brands using diesel engines of the type E189 are affected. Audi, Seat, Skoda, VW are all part of this scandal. The only ones (probably) out are their niche luxury brands with no diesel of this size, like Lamborghini, Bugatti, Porsche, Bentley.

 

[Benz]

Tonight all the VW, Audi, Seat and Skoda dealers in The Netherlands were invited by Pon (the company that imports cars of those 4 brands in The Netherlands). Later they announced that in total 4,100 cars of these 4 brands will not be delivered. These cars are equiped with a Euro 5 diesel engine (1.6 TDI or 2.0 TDI).

The cars that are equiped with a Euro 6 diesel engine (1.6 TDI or 2.0 TDI) will be delivered to customers according to plan.

 

[hobbes]

This is in line with the cockroach theory that the shorts ( not me ) believe in !

(...)

I generally don't look out for these sorts of integrity issues that are somehow built in some aggressive corporate cultures.... Certainly never expected this dumb behavior from a German automaker . Really ? They did not think sometime over the course of many years they would get caught??? Dumb.. Stupid ... Irrational . Utterly un- German IMO!

6 weeks later, and we have a CO2 cheating scandal in addition to the original diesel gate (which is NOx). Talk about cockroaches.

As for how this happened, found a German article today which brings light into it:

Ex-VW CEO Martin Winterkorn had at the Geneva Motor Show announced in March 2012, by 2015 to reduce the CO2 emissions of VW models by 30 percent. The Bild am Sonntag writes that VW technician would have, according to the confessions not dare to confront Winterkorn with the actual implementation difficulties. According to a report the tampering began in 2013 and ran until the spring of 2015.

Volkswagen: VW-Ingenieure gestehen Manipulationen |Â*ZEIT ONLINE
Google Translate

As someone posted a while ago, looks like people may be just about to realize EVs are the only way to go to achieve emission goals.

 

[Discoducky]

It is nice to hear that the engineer who stepped up will be protected. It is also terribly sad that this appears to be something that went all the way up to the top of VW and that engineers were forced to cheat.

 

[electracity]

The fix will may result in reduced acceleration in existing cars, resulting in a new wave of unhappiness.

 

[hobbes]

It is nice to hear that the engineer who stepped up will be protected.

Yeah, definitiely.

It is also terribly sad that this appears to be something that went all the way up to the top of VW and that engineers were forced to cheat.

The article actually says that top management came up with the goal of 30% reduction, and when engineers realized that they couldn´t make it, they didn´t dare to to say "no way, have to do with less" and started cheating instead to make it look like they hit the target. So maybe they were indirectly forced to cheat. It is obviously up for discussion if that´s just the way they put it now and in reality top management was aware the goals were not achievable, but that´s what the article says. Maybe didn´t come out so well in the translation.