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Prediction Thread - "You Called It"
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FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
Agree. Do you think the current Model S and X vehicles will be grandfathered for free SC?
Agree. Do you think the current Model S and X vehicles will be grandfathered for free SC?
@FlatSix911, good question. Yes, I think current vehicles will be grandfathered but they will be subject to idle fees too. In addition, locals who supercharge too much on the free for life plan will face tapering. However, they will be given the option to switch to kWh credits system if they want to. The unused portion of $2500 (based on 12-years vehicle life expectancy) will be converted to kWh credits and added to their account.
Ulmo
Active Member
I predict that within 7 years, Tesla Motors or its successor (Tesla) will use the services and programming of George Hotz in some capacity. I also predict that that will happen in the capacity of self driving cars within 13 years. (2 predictions.)
FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
I have a bit of a different perspective on this. I consider 200,000 S/X deliveries in 2020 to be a "lowball" number that Tesla will very likely exceed by a significant margin.
Tesla's BEV platform is already light years ahead of ICE vehicles sold at the same price point in terms of both performance and efficiency. At the same time, Tesla's technology outside the drivetrain has also leapfrogged the competition (Autopilot being the most obvious example).
It is important to recognize that the leading competitors who are selling at the same price point as the S/X -- BMW, Mercedes, Audi -- have built their brands by differentiating themselves in the marketplace based on exactly the features where Tesla is now the industry leader -- performance and technology. For example, BMW is the "Ultimate Driving Machine" and Mercedes touts its technological innovations, with the most recent example being full page ads in many publications on its "self-driving" technology. But Tesla clearly outshines both of them and a whole raft of other high-end automakers on performance and technology. ICE is already obsolete, but that does not appear to have been fully grasped by the industry.
As noted above, BMW is selling over 600,000 vehicles per year with a base price of over $50K. Mercedes appears to be selling a similar number. So that is 1.2M vehicles per year, without counting Audi, Porsche and a slew of other companies selling high-end vehicles.
Since Tesla already offers performance, handling and technology that is far superior to the competition, I believe its sales at the top end of the market will continue to grow rapidly, and it is just a matter of time (and not much time) before Tesla is selling well in excess of 200,000 S/X per year.
This is even more so as customers recognize how amazing it is to be able to have industry leading performance in a car that gets in the ballpark of 100MPGe. And that they have the option of powering their car using clean solar power that effectively eliminates carbon emissions while drastically reducing air pollution (which is currently causing over 5,000,000 deaths per year worldwide according to recent reports).
At some level I agree with you that until there is meaningful BEV competition from other manufacturers, the main competition for the Model S/X will eventually be the Model 3/Y. But it is important to put that in the context of a substantial and very profitable worldwide market for high end vehicles that already cannot compete with Tesla in performance or technology.
By 2020 the advantages of Tesla's BEV platform and technology over the competition will make all ICE vehicles pale by comparison on virtually every performance metric. While the 3 and Y will be selling hand over fist, some individuals like larger vehicles and will prefer the styling and features of the S to the smaller and edgier Model 3 (and the same will be true for the X and Y). As far as interiors, Tesla has its supporters and detractors but at the end of the day I don't think that matters much. (Side note: I had dinner with someone recently who had their first Tesla experience and described the S's interior as "a work of art."). Tesla is a young company, and will continue to improve its interiors, as well as fit and finish. In any case, focusing on premium interiors while delivering inferior performance has not been a winning strategy in the car business (Cadillac, pre-Tata Jaguar come to mind).
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Just a quick follow-up note to respond to the statement above. My impression is that the panoramic windshield is one of the most popular features of the Model X. I don't think it going anywhere and something like it could be a feature of the Model Y.
I believe the jury is still out on the FWDs. We are only about eight months into serious production and reliability appears to be improving rapidly, and many people love them. (Obviously, that is not a universal opinion.) Bjorn posted a great video showing the FWDs' value as a marketing tool, which you may have seen. Falcon Wings. Enough said
To avoid added cost and manufacturing complexity, I agree FWDs probably will not appear on Model Y when it is first introduced but I don't feel strongly enough about that to make an official Prediction Thread prediction.
The Model Y is going to be built for mass production and both the windshield and falcon wing doors are very difficult to manufacture. The ghosting problem people are seeing with the X windshield is probably due to the problems of making a curved windshield with safety glass. It's also the largest windshield ever put into a car, which contributes to the complexity.
I've also heard from some X owners that once the awe factor of the falcon wing doors wears off, they become kind of a nuisance. A few people who say they have typically put bags of groceries in the back seat area now put them on the passenger side on the front because they don't want to wait for the falcon wing doors to cycle open and shut.
The doors are a sales feature. They draw a crowd, but they are massively complex to solve a problem that can be solved much cheaper with sliding doors. Yes sliding doors take up more space on the side of the car in a tight parking spot, but the X has something no other SUV has: summon.
On the S, the retracting door handles are an awe feature that impresses people, but they have proven to be one of the weakest points of the car. They didn't put them on the X or the 3 largely for that reason.
Knowing Tesla, they will probably do something with the Y to make it look different and have some wow factor. They kept the recessed door handles on the 3, but they made them a much more practical design that will be less prone to breaking down. I don't think the windshield or the FWD will be on the Y.
I've also heard from some X owners that once the awe factor of the falcon wing doors wears off, they become kind of a nuisance. A few people who say they have typically put bags of groceries in the back seat area now put them on the passenger side on the front because they don't want to wait for the falcon wing doors to cycle open and shut.
The doors are a sales feature. They draw a crowd, but they are massively complex to solve a problem that can be solved much cheaper with sliding doors. Yes sliding doors take up more space on the side of the car in a tight parking spot, but the X has something no other SUV has: summon.
On the S, the retracting door handles are an awe feature that impresses people, but they have proven to be one of the weakest points of the car. They didn't put them on the X or the 3 largely for that reason.
Knowing Tesla, they will probably do something with the Y to make it look different and have some wow factor. They kept the recessed door handles on the 3, but they made them a much more practical design that will be less prone to breaking down. I don't think the windshield or the FWD will be on the Y.
Even if Tesla were not able to solve the "ghosting" issue which is an annoyance to some owners (which I expect they will) my sense is that the positives of the panoramic windshield far outweigh the negatives. I don't know how the economics work out but I agree that will likely drive whether a panoramic windshield appears on the Model Y or not.
I owned a 2000 Honda Odyssey which was one of the first production vans with automatic sliding doors. In the first couple years, the doors were very glitchy and unreliable and I had to take them to the dealer at least three times to get them fixed when they were stuck open. Eventually Honda worked out the bugs and a few years later the doors worked very well. I expect FWDs will follow the same trajectory but even more quickly due to OTA updates that are already improving the doors' functionality. As noted above, I do agree the FWDs may not appear on the Y, but I believe they are here to stay on the X.
I had not really thought about that but it makes sense -- no idea what it will be!
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I love this topic. Here are a few more from me:
◘ In 2017 Tesla will deliver between 45,000-65,000 Model 3's.
◘ Tesla will reach 200,000 sales in the USA in Q4 2014.
◘ All Model 3 reservation holders in the USA who put down a deposit in-store on 31st Mar 2016 will qualify for $7500 federal tax credits.
◘ All current and future Roadster, Model S and Model X owners who buy their car before the Model 3 production starts will qualify for $7500 federal tax credits for their Model 3 purchase.
◘ None of the Model 3 reservation holders in the USA who put down a deposit on 1st Apr 2016 or later will qualify for $7500 federal tax credits, unless they own another Tesla when Model 3 starts production.
Google sheet
◘ In 2017 Tesla will deliver between 45,000-65,000 Model 3's.
◘ Tesla will reach 200,000 sales in the USA in Q4 2014.
◘ All Model 3 reservation holders in the USA who put down a deposit in-store on 31st Mar 2016 will qualify for $7500 federal tax credits.
◘ All current and future Roadster, Model S and Model X owners who buy their car before the Model 3 production starts will qualify for $7500 federal tax credits for their Model 3 purchase.
◘ None of the Model 3 reservation holders in the USA who put down a deposit on 1st Apr 2016 or later will qualify for $7500 federal tax credits, unless they own another Tesla when Model 3 starts production.
Google sheet
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FlatSix911
Porsche 918 Hybrid
Prediction: The sub $200 dip we saw last week is the last time the TSLA share price will ever be sub $200, not including future splits.
I do actually think there is a 50:50 chance we might drop sub $200 in the next 40 days and 30:70 in the next 18 months; however, I wanted to throw this out there before it seemed glaringly obvious. Otherwise I would just say TSLA won't drop sub $23 ever again. But there's no fun in that
I do actually think there is a 50:50 chance we might drop sub $200 in the next 40 days and 30:70 in the next 18 months; however, I wanted to throw this out there before it seemed glaringly obvious. Otherwise I would just say TSLA won't drop sub $23 ever again. But there's no fun in that
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
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