Private Model 3 Viewing

[22522]

How many people here actually *do* have specific automotive production line build-out experience? Yet, when people say that Tesla is going to be pumping out at full ramp in four weeks, they aren't challenged like I am. Huh... can you say 'kool-aid'?

I can say 'kool-aid' but see the churning happening at more than 500K next year. They may carry some parts inventory at suppliers this year.
The early stuff is fits and starts. Elon says as much when he says S curve ambiguity.

 

[HankLloydRight]

I guess we'll see soon enough.

And more than 500k M3s in 2018? I'd put money on that not happening.

 

[Runt8]

Have you seen the production line yourself, in person? Have you seen the currently running lines, in full operation? I have (three times now) and you don't need to be a subject matter expert to tell the differences. Unfortunately, I can't go into details due to the NDA.

Or we can just wait and see how long it is until Tesla is pumping out 30,000 M3s per month (hint: it won't be Q3, and I doubt it will be Q4).

No, and no. I'm also not telling people that there's no way it will be up and running in July.

How many people here actually *do* have specific automotive production line build-out experience? Yet, when people say that Tesla is going to be pumping out at full ramp in four weeks, they aren't challenged like I am. Huh... can you say 'kool-aid'?

People are quoting high level Tesla employees who keep saying that M3 production is on time. They've given a timeline and are telling investors that they are on track to meet that timeline. I choose to believe that over some random internet guy with no experience in the field saying that the production line won't be ready on time because he compared it to the currently running lines and they look different.

 

[HankLloydRight]

Ok, I guess we'll see soon enough.

 

[JeffK]

How many people here actually *do* have specific automotive production line build-out experience? Yet, when people say that Tesla is going to be pumping out at full ramp in four weeks, they aren't challenged like I am. Huh... can you say 'kool-aid'?

I'd say Peter Hochholdinger the VP of Vehicle Production who spent 20 years at Audi has experience It's his job to make sure Model 3 is on time.

 

[HankLloydRight]

Doesn't mean it *will* be on time.

 

[McRat]

Love Tesla and Elon's vision, but am I the only one who has been following the history of the company?

I see nothing wrong with optimism, and investors are eating it up.

 

[JeffK]

Hopefully Elon will tweet when the first one gets off the line.

 

[HankLloydRight]

Hopefully Elon will tweet when the first one gets off the line.

First one off the line, or first production, salable car off the line?

Has nobody seen "Gung Ho"?

 

[dhanson865]

I asked my wife as a guinea pig for the gif and I said "What do you see?" she said "The red line goes up and down"

That's the only important point of the gif. I used a free online animated gif generator due to laziness, haha.

The ground is the same level and the line goes up and down.

It doesn't just go up and down, it also slights forwards (left) and backwards (right) as it moves up and down.

The other thing is one of the cars has tint so dark I can't see the head rests to know where the people would be in comparison to the roof.

I also used a free on line gif generator to modify your copy. Was very easy to set a percent slower or percent faster to find what worked best for me, others might like it faster. I've always hated fast gifs.

 

[schonelucht]

Why is that exactly? Do you have experience setting up an automobile manufacturing line? What makes it seem like the production line wouldn't be able to produce a car by sometime in July?

I actually have experience setting up manufacturing lines. It's normally pretty obvious when there is still major work to be done.

 

[HabitualUser]

Has nobody seen "Gung Ho"?

Yea about 30 years ago..

 

[houdini]

I guess we'll see soon enough.

And more than 500k M3s in 2018? I'd put money on that not happening.

I've drunk the kook aid and am a big Tesla fan and I will bet a nice bottle of wine that they won't do 500K cars in 2018. Tesla kind of has form in missing targets. That's not a criticism just an observation. Doesn't matter they've hired an Audi guy it's still a super aggressive target to ramp up production a full year earlier than Tesla originally scoped. Remember Elon MUsk said it was an impossible target.

My money (and wine) is on them getting to a few thousand cars a week by the end of the year. Maybe mid-2018 to late they might hit the 5000 cars a week.

 

[houdini]

It might be like an engine starting. Fits and starts as it becomes a machine. They have the Audi guy and cherry picked folks from his last factory.

Ah yes I remember when Audi spent less than 5 years on getting a car to production. No wait.....I dont'

 

[JeffK]

Ah yes I remember when Audi spent less than 5 years on getting a car to production. No wait.....I dont'

It's normal for companies to spend 3-5 years developing a car. Model 3 development started in 2014 and clay models were spotted in 2015. This isn't a rush job if that's what you're saying.

 

[JeffK]

The other thing is one of the cars has tint so dark I can't see the head rests to know where the people would be in comparison to the roof.

You can see the headrest placement on other Model 3 shots. It's directly in line or possibly slightly behind the C-pillar, you head would be in front of this spot obviously. The headroom decreases as you move those seats backwards like in the Model S.

 

[HankLloydRight]

My money (and wine) is on them getting to a few thousand cars a week by the end of the year. Maybe mid-2018 to late they might hit the 5000 cars a week.

Just to be clear, this is about what I see happening as well. Q3 is July, Aug, September. I can certainly see Tesla getting the line running enough to pop out some initial cars by the end of September, but would still require a lot of manual finishing (similar to what happened with MX, but maybe on an accelerated scale). And then real production seriously ramps up in Q4.

Yea about 30 years ago..

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

 

[JeffK]

The more things change, the more they stay the same.

Even had a frunk

 

[dsvick]

... all these hyped events that turn out to be far more mundane than what the hype before had lead one to believe.

What hype? The main headline on the invitations that were sent out was "VIP Tesla Factory Tour". The was the main attraction, not the model 3. Anyone that was lead to believe something else was lead there by themselves. Did we all hope for some tidbit or something? Sure, but there was nothing at all in the communications from Tesla to suggest it.

 

[JeffK]

What hype? The main headline on the invitations that were sent out was "VIP Tesla Factory Tour". The was the main attraction, not the model 3. Anyone that was lead to believe something else was lead there by themselves. Did we all hope for some tidbit or something? Sure, but there was nothing at all in the communications from Tesla to suggest it.

The email alone would be neutral...

This headline is a little biased
Tesla will host a private viewing of the Model 3 during VIP tour for referral winners