Private Model 3 Viewing

[cdub]

I didn't mean the car itself, but all these hyped events that turn out to be far more mundane than what the hype before had lead one to believe.

I believe WE hyped up the event. Not Tesla.

 

[stopcrazypp]

One quote from the author of this article: I Took a Ride in Tesla Motors, Inc.'s Model 3. Here Are 3 Takeaways -- The Motley Fool


I just love this picture. It's kind of an illusion that the Model 3 is taller than the Model S

How do we know for sure there's more headroom:

Look the placement of the back seat headrest. In the Model 3 this is moved forward, thus allowing more headroom. They are able to do this and keep legroom, because the front seat and dash are also moved forward.

Well the problem with anecdotal accounts is that there are conflicting ones. Upthread, it was claimed Model 3 felt like it had less headroom.

Well, all I can share is my own personal experience from riding in a Model 3 at the reveal last year and comparing it to my Model S. The Model 3 felt like a significantly smaller car inside compared to the Model S, both roof to floor and side to side. It was comfortable in terms of space in the rear, but not nearly as comfortable as a Model S. But that's just what I remember. If others who've rode in a Model 3 say that there's more roof to floor space, then perhaps there is.

We'll see the actual numbers when the car is out (although to be fair, sometimes the numbers don't tell the whole story).

 

[JeffK]

Well the problem with anecdotal accounts is that there are conflicting ones. Upthread, it was claimed Model 3 felt like it had less headroom.

We'll see the actual numbers when the car is out (although to be fair, sometimes the numbers don't tell the whole story).

Luckily the gif clearly shows the increase in headroom

 

[Waiting4M3]

Well the problem with anecdotal accounts is that there are conflicting ones. Upthread, it was claimed Model 3 felt like it had less headroom.

We'll see the actual numbers when the car is out (although to be fair, sometimes the numbers don't tell the whole story).

In the end people will sit in one and decide if they want it, so none of the discussions here will ever matter, LOL. Internet, stop taking yourself so seriously.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Luckily the gif clearly shows the increase in headroom

I'm not really seeing it from the gif. The way the car is lined up seems to show the rear area shrinking for the Model 3, which would suggest less cabin space in the back. While the rear seats does seem to be positioned a bit more forward for the 3 based on how the car is lined up, I think that depends on how you line it up. It might make sense to line up by the rear headrest and then see how much space is on the top (which one has more).

Another factor is how high the seat cushion is and the seating position of the person. Knowing the measurements would eliminate some of this uncertainty.

 

[S3XY]

Who cares about how much headroom there is in the back seat? I'll be in the drivers seat and having fun tooling around.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Who cares about how much headroom there is in the back seat? I'll be in the drivers seat and having fun tooling around.

Maybe you should wait for the Roadster and let the rest of us get our hands on our M3 1st

 

[JeffK]

I'm not really seeing it from the gif. The way the car is lined up seems to show the rear area shrinking for the Model 3, which would suggest less cabin space in the back. While the rear seats does seem to be positioned a bit more forward for the 3 based on how the car is lined up, I think that depends on how you line it up. It might make sense to line up by the rear headrest and then see how much space is on the top (which one has more).

Another factor is how high the seat cushion is and the seating position of the person. Knowing the measurements would eliminate some of this uncertainty.

Doubt seats cushions would be raised as there's nothing down there but a flat battery and the design goal and the entire reason for the trunk was for headroom and rear visibility.

I've highlighted an animation for anyone who also has trouble.

This also confirms what Tesla has told us and the joke Elon make about 5 adults comfortably during the launch.

 

[HankLloydRight]

The time between first production builds (December) and line fully operation (March) was 3 to 4 months for the Model X. Do you see a similar timeline for the 3?

Yes, I do (despite what Elon has said about doing that).

Am I right in thinking that you are going against the general mood on the forum wrt Model 3 ramp up?

Yes, I am.

In short, I expect 25,000 Model 3 deliveries in 3Q17 and 50,000 deliveries in 4Q17.

Good luck with that. I don't think Tesla will reach full (or close to full) ramp until mid-late 2017 or even early Q12018. While the production line is moving along well (I've seen it twice in two months), I can't imagine that it will be capable of producing Car #1 in four to eight weeks from today (that's July or August). It might be technically a running line by September, but I don't think we'll get real, salable production M3s out of it until Q4.

 

[JeffK]

Good luck with that. I don't think Tesla will reach full (or close to full) ramp until mid-late 2017 or even early Q12018. While the production line is moving along well (I've seen it twice in two months), I can't imagine that it will be capable of producing Car #1 in four to eight weeks from today (that's July or August). It might be technically a running line by September, but I don't think we'll get real, salable production M3s out of it until Q4.

Why is that exactly? Do you have experience setting up an automobile manufacturing line? What makes it seem like the production line wouldn't be able to produce a car by sometime in July?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Good luck with that. I don't think Tesla will reach full (or close to full) ramp until mid-late 2017 or even early Q12018. While the production line is moving along well (I've seen it twice in two months), I can't imagine that it will be capable of producing Car #1 in four to eight weeks from today (that's July or August). It might be technically a running line by September, but I don't think we'll get real, salable production M3s out of it until Q4.

My forecast does not assume they'll reach full 5,000/w until the very end of 4Q17.

Elon has said the company ordered parts for 1,000/w in July, 2,000/w in august, and 4,000/w in September.

I'm assuming little less than 4,000/w average throughout 4Q17.

So if they start the quarter at 4,000/w and end it at 5,000/w, my assumption of less than 4,000/w will prove conservative.

 

[HankLloydRight]

Why is that exactly? Do you have experience setting up an automobile manufacturing line? What makes it seem like the production line wouldn't be able to produce a car by sometime in July?

Why is everyone suddenly demanding specific industry experience for every speculation made on TMC? If that's the new requirement, that's a welcome end to opinion and speculation on TMC.

But seriously, I saw the production line, twice. Directly compared to Line 1 (MS) and Line 2 (MX) currently in operation, as well as the final assembly line (both models), you can tell there is still a tremendous amount of work left on M3 line. July is less than 4 weeks away. Even going to the end of July (8 weeks) is not enough time to bring the M3 line up. I could describe in great detail why I think this and what I saw each time, but I don't want to violate the NDA we all signed.

Look at it this way, you're building a house. You have the foundation poured, the framing up, and even the roof trusses. But you want a finished house, you still have to install the floors, walls, plumbing, power, HVAC, roof (solar, of course) .. then install the full kitchen and bathrooms, carpet, paint, doors, windows, trim, etc. Oh, and you want that all done in four days, ready to move in. That's about what you're asking for.

 

[dhanson865]

Doubt seats cushions would be raised as there's nothing down there but a flat battery and the design goal and the entire reason for the trunk was for headroom and rear visibility.

I've highlighted an animation for anyone who also has trouble.

View attachment 229792

This also confirms what Tesla has told us and the joke Elon make about 5 adults comfortably during the launch.

I find that give to move too fast to be able to focus on fine details, I slowed it down to half speed.

after seeing the slow version I notice the front axle is the only point that is fixed, the front tire changes size and everything else shifts and morphs.

 

[22522]

If that's the new requirement, that's a welcome end to opinion and speculation on TMC.

It might be like an engine starting. Fits and starts as it becomes a machine. They have the Audi guy and cherry picked folks from his last factory.

 

[JeffK]

Why is everyone suddenly demanding specific industry experience for every speculation made on TMC? If that's the new requirement, that's a welcome end to opinion and speculation on TMC.

But seriously, I saw the production line, twice. Directly compared to Line 1 (MS) and Line 2 (MX) currently in operation, as well as the final assembly line (both models), you can tell there is still a tremendous amount of work left on M3 line. July is less than 4 weeks away. Even going to the end of July (8 weeks) is not enough time to bring the M3 line up. I could describe in great detail why I think this and what I saw each time, but I don't want to violate the NDA we all signed.

Look at it this way, you're building a house. You have the foundation poured, the framing up, and even the roof trusses. But you want a finished house, you still have to install the floors, walls, plumbing, power, HVAC, roof (solar, of course) .. then install the full kitchen and bathrooms, carpet, paint, doors, windows, trim, etc. Oh, and you want that all done in four days, ready to move in. That's about what you're asking for.

I was thinking you'd mention comparison to the S/X lines but let's not forget drivetrain assembly at the gigafactory.

 

[JeffK]

I find that give to move too fast to be able to focus on fine details, I slowed it down to half speed.

View attachment 229818

after seeing the slow version I notice the front axle is the only point that is fixed, the front tire changes size and everything else shifts and morphs.

I asked my wife as a guinea pig for the gif and I said "What do you see?" she said "The red line goes up and down"

That's the only important point of the gif. I used a free online animated gif generator due to laziness, haha.

The ground is the same level and the line goes up and down.

 

[HankLloydRight]

I was thinking you'd mention comparison to the S/X lines but let's not forget drivetrain assembly at the gigafactory.

I'm not sure that matters, because even for MS/MX, drivetrain assembly is a small side processing line at Fremont, and not part of BIW Line 1 or Line 2 or final assembly. It's just a completed part that shows up to the main line. So does it matter that for M3 it happens somewhere else?

 

[Runt8]

Why is everyone suddenly demanding specific industry experience for every speculation made on TMC? If that's the new requirement, that's a welcome end to opinion and speculation on TMC.

But seriously, I saw the production line, twice. Directly compared to Line 1 (MS) and Line 2 (MX) currently in operation, as well as the final assembly line (both models), you can tell there is still a tremendous amount of work left on M3 line. July is less than 4 weeks away. Even going to the end of July (8 weeks) is not enough time to bring the M3 line up. I could describe in great detail why I think this and what I saw each time, but I don't want to violate the NDA we all signed.

Look at it this way, you're building a house. You have the foundation poured, the framing up, and even the roof trusses. But you want a finished house, you still have to install the floors, walls, plumbing, power, HVAC, roof (solar, of course) .. then install the full kitchen and bathrooms, carpet, paint, doors, windows, trim, etc. Oh, and you want that all done in four days, ready to move in. That's about what you're asking for.

It matters because an assembly line is very complex and you might not have any idea what you're talking about.

For example, if I'm building a computer, I could have all the major pieces put into place (motherboard, CPU, hard disks, power supply, etc), and have a bunch of wires hanging out all over the place. If I show it to my mom, she'll probably think "what a mess, that thing doesn't look close to finished!" But plugging in all of the wires takes very little time.

If you don't have any industry experience then you probably aren't very well equipped to make a realistic estimate as to when it will be ready to go.

 

[HankLloydRight]

Have you seen the production line yourself, in person? Have you seen the currently running lines, in full operation? I have (three times now) and you don't need to be a subject matter expert to tell the differences. Unfortunately, I can't go into details due to the NDA.

Or we can just wait and see how long it is until Tesla is pumping out 30,000 M3s per month (hint: it won't be Q3, and I doubt it will be Q4).

 

[HankLloydRight]

If you don't have any industry experience then you probably aren't very well equipped to make a realistic estimate as to when it will be ready to go.

How many people here actually *do* have specific automotive production line build-out experience? Yet, when people say that Tesla is going to be pumping out at full ramp in four weeks, they aren't challenged like I am. Huh... can you say 'kool-aid'?