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Production Rate (incl manufacturing waves)
- Thread starter joefee
- Start date
contaygious
Active Member
CapitalistOppressor
Active Member
If they run for a month at 80/cars per week, then double to 160/cars per week for another month, they will need to produce nearly 4,000 cars in the month of December to make their 5,000 car goal. So while it might not seem realistic to you, it nevertheless remains a fact that if Tesla is going to meet their goal for the year they will need to double production, and then double it again in the next few weeks.
At the end of August Tesla was producing ~10 cars per week. The first week of September they produced ~40, and the second week (which just ended) they produced ~80. We are deep into the S curve and at this point and continuing to double production week by week during September will allow Tesla to meet it's quarterly goals and put themselves on track to meet their end of year production goals. There might obviously be delays or problems, but I see no evidence that Tesla plans to do anything but meet the goals they have laid out.
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That's what I've heard from others, but at least one recent buyer stated that they were asking for payment 2 weeks before delivery. I'm actually thinking it might be a recent policy change.
I've been wondering if it might have to do with how the car is being delivered, or some other factor as well. The reports I've read of folks paying when they receive the car seemed to be picking it up in person, so that might be the difference. The only reason it matters is that Tesla is likely to be delivering ~200-300 cars in the first half of October, so accepting payment 2 weeks early would give them revenue from ~500 cars in Q3. If they aren't doing that they will only be able to report ~200-250 deliveries instead of ~450-550 "sales".
This delivery indicates that Tesla seems to be on track for hitting their Q3 number.
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This definitely makes a lot of sense to me.
March called, they want their distorted news coverage back.
There are about 22,000 Volts on the road now, and GM has been consistently selling 2000-2500 units per month for quite a while now. That's how many people per month are looking past the terribly distorted coverage and seeing what a fantastic car the Volt is, and the slam-dunk success of EVs in general.
Don't regurgitate the crap "news" you are getting, especially the misleading headlines. And that definitely includes that execrable story from Reuters a week ago. For shame, Reuters. The oil companies have really put the pedal to the metal on their FUD game now.
Hey, I didn't derail, he did it first! (points finger at brother)
contaygious
Active Member
Really? Sorry, didn't mean to post bad news. I got that from quite a few google search sites and actually never saw that 22k figure once anywhere. I guess you can't believe everything you read on the Internet, but still 22k isn't too great since Dec 2010.
Tesla will give people cars they want with gen 3 so I would bet it would sell much better than A 40k volt.
Tesla will give people cars they want with gen 3 so I would bet it would sell much better than A 40k volt.
There's plenty of room for both Tesla's, Volts and Karma's out there. And now on-topic again :wink:
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Based on that info, it looks like Tesla will have 500 built by the end of September. 500 delivered though? Not quite. So my guess is they'll come close to their goal, but just barely miss it due to customer delivery delays.
NigelM
Recovering Member
500 delivery notices sent out?...... Lots of ways to spin the 500 number in a positive statement
I would say with the Betas, RC's, and engineering cars added to Founders/Sigs, that sounds about right. If built refers to fully assembled vehicles, and not just frames.
CapitalistOppressor
Active Member
I actually think Autoblog is just going off of Elon's tweet about a skateboard being complete with an S/N of like 390ish a couple of days ago (I don't feel like looking it up).
However, the model that I've been basing my recent investment decisions off of predicts that ~400 vehicles will be complete by the end of this week (and ~720 complete by the end of September). There is an element of optimism in that projection, but absent new issues I see no reason why Tesla could not be ahead of schedule by a few days. Especially since they had built ~100 bodies at the end of last week (instead of just 80) and had so many skateboards done when Elon sent his tweet.
If they have actually completed ~400 vehicles as of today, that likely means that the factory has been putting out ~40 cars a day for the last few days, as opposed to the ~25-28 I was expecting. Tesla's goal is to push up to ~100 cars per day (at least until they have whittled down the wait list).
Until we hear from other sources, I'd take the Autoblog report with a grain of salt. There's no real reason why it can't be true, but we have no guidance about the source and it seems likely that it is just based on Elon's tweet, which wasn't about completed cars. Still though, Tesla is clearly making a lot of progress on the production front.
timdorr
Model S P90D w/AP3.0
The highest VIN we now have is 440 for S #508, so I think that number is somewhat accurate for at least production.
This week has a confirmed (via the forums here and on TM's site) 34 deliveries scheduled, which is weighted to 107 this week. That's only 286 total actual deliveries when weighted based on all known deliveries up to this week (91 confirmed on the forums). So, a little over half. Those numbers could change, based on a higher VIN being found, more deliveries being reported, or me finding a huge error in my math (which is likely!).
This week has a confirmed (via the forums here and on TM's site) 34 deliveries scheduled, which is weighted to 107 this week. That's only 286 total actual deliveries when weighted based on all known deliveries up to this week (91 confirmed on the forums). So, a little over half. Those numbers could change, based on a higher VIN being found, more deliveries being reported, or me finding a huge error in my math (which is likely!).
NigelM
Recovering Member
I'm not gonna question your math, just worth remembering that we only know about the forum members (TM & TMC) who report numbers. There's thousands of people out there who don't frequent the forums or post their information.
timdorr
Model S P90D w/AP3.0
Yep, that's why I'm weighting the values. Given that the VINs are sequential, we can assume a weighting formula of: COUNT(Reservations)/MAX(VIN). That's about 3.14 right now.
NigelM
Recovering Member
mnx
2018 M3P
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